Supply is robust, with Lower-48 production nearing record highs (108.7 to 113.4 Bcf/d) and the gas rig count at a 2.5-year high (133). This supply base is unfazed by $3 gas. However, demand is soft, with Lower-48 consumption down 30% year-over-year. While LNG remains a steady structural backbone (18.6 to 19.8 Bcf/d), it cannot offset mild weather and high production. Storage is tight but improving. The latest EIA withdrawal (144 Bcf) underperformed the 5-year average (151 Bcf), leaving inventories 5.6% below average. Analysts anticipate this deficit will narrow if mild weather persists as winter ends. Technically, the market shows range compression, struggling to hold above $3.10-$3.20 without sustained cold. The bigger picture pits resilient supply against a shrinking weather window. Production holding above 109 Bcf/d, coupled with below-average withdrawals, suggests sub-$3 pressure is possible. However, sustained late-season cold could re-ignite volatility. The market awaits data, not hope.
* Monday’s trading dropped all the way down to $3.00 leaving 3.247 and 3.127 back in the rear view - but leaving it wide open for a return as the drop below $3 was not pronounced….so more of a holding pattern.
* Tuesday dropped further to the next support level 2.924…this move has all the makings of dropping us down to 2.76 (the next big level down) - the move down was just enough to be bearish but not enough to box out the bulls….if the bulls recapture $3 - then $3.449 could be back on the table
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-24 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas markets are currently navigating a tricky landscape with robust supply nearing record highs, yet demand is down 30% year-over-year. Mild weather forecasts are contributing to a bearish sentiment, pushing prices to four-month lows, even as LNG exports hold steady. Recent EIA data shows withdrawals lagging behind the five-year average, hinting at a potential narrowing of inventory deficits if cold weather returns. Traders should watch for price action around $3; a hold above could signal a bullish reversal, while a drop below risks pushing prices into the $2.70s.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 10.9 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 17.12 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.84
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.06
MA(20): $3.67
Current Price is 2.84, 9 day MA 3.06, 20 day MA 3.67
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3483
Signal: -0.2889
Days since crossover: 16
MACD crossed the line 16 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 39.2
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 39.2 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 3,476
Avg (20d): 190,562
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 1.93
%D: 8.61
Stochastic %K: 1.93, %D: 8.61. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.78
+DI: 25.71
-DI: 24.22
ADX: 14.78 (+DI: 25.71, -DI: 24.22). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -98.07
Williams %R: -98.07 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 6.13
Middle: 3.67
Lower: 1.21
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 6.13, Middle: 3.67, Lower: 1.21
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.7 | 108.1 | 103.9 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.7 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.6 |
| Total Supply | 113.4 | 113.3 | 111.5 | 108.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 23.3 | 26.7 | 25.07 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.5 | 38.0 | 35.4 | 32.03 |
| Residential & Commercial | 38.8 | 46.3 | 53.5 | 39.9 |
| LNG Exports | 18.9 | 18.7 | 16.1 | 14.27 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.3 | 7.7 |
| Total Demand | 130.52 | 141.42 | 146.5 | 125.27 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -17.12 | -28.12 | -35.0 | -16.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
163.0 HDD
-19.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
158.0 HDD
-23.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
3.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
5.0 CDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/16 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/17 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/18 | 20.0 | 27.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/19 | 21.0 | 26.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/20 | 24.0 | 25.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/21 | 26.0 | 24.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/22 | 30.0 | 24.0 | +6.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/24 | 28.0 | 26.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/25 | 23.0 | 27.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/26 | 21.0 | 27.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/27 | 19.0 | 26.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/28 | 19.0 | 26.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/01 | 23.0 | 25.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/02 | 25.0 | 24.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/16 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.75
Daily:
0.05 (0.06%)
Weekly:
0.05 (0.06%)
US_10Y
4.03
Daily:
0.0 (0.1%)
Weekly:
-0.05 (-1.13%)
SP500
6890.07
Daily:
52.32 (0.77%)
Weekly:
8.76 (0.13%)
VIX
19.55
Daily:
-1.46 (-6.95%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-0.36%)
GOLD
5199.3
Daily:
-5.4 (-0.1%)
Weekly:
212.8 (4.27%)
COPPER
6.0
Daily:
0.23 (3.95%)
Weekly:
0.21 (3.58%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-17
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,613,556
Change: -9,852
Managed Money
-26,765
Change: -18,577
-1.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
35,694
Change: +8,078
2.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
139,104
Change: +7,278
8.6% of OI
Other Reportables
-159,047
Change: +4,630
-9.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-17
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,087,493
Change: +16,955
Managed Money
63,785
Change: -15,361
3.1% of OI
Producer/Merchant
156,331
Change: -11,793
7.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-337,960
Change: -13,970
-16.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 11.389 EUR/MWh (-0.014). JKM prices increased to 10.725 USD/MMBtu (+0.065). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.664 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.389
-0.014Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-24
JKM Prices
10.725
+0.065Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-02-24
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.664
-5.83%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-24
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.5
11.2
11.0
10.7
10.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.389 |
| APR 26 | 10.882 |
| MAY 26 | 10.727 |
| JUN 26 | 10.642 |
| JUL 26 | 10.628 |
| AUG 26 | 10.665 |
| SEP 26 | 10.804 |
| OCT 26 | 10.875 |
| NOV 26 | 11.001 |
| DEC 26 | 11.060 |
| JAN 27 | 11.106 |
| FEB 27 | 11.038 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 10.725 |
| MAY 26 | 10.530 |
| JUN 26 | 10.650 |
| JUL 26 | 10.770 |
| AUG 26 | 10.865 |
| SEP 26 | 10.800 |
| OCT 26 | 10.890 |
| NOV 26 | 10.915 |
| DEC 26 | 11.140 |
| JAN 27 | 11.245 |
| FEB 27 | 11.165 |
| MAR 27 | 10.530 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.55
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
40
Last Updated:
2026-02-24 23:47:49
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
NATURAL_GAS
-0.7
Top News Topics
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
Weather (5 articles)
- US natgas futures slide 2% to near five-month low on mild weather forecast Reuters
- Nat-Gas Prices Tumble on the Outlook for Warmer US Temperatures Barchart
- Nat-Gas Prices Erase Early Gains as US Weather Forecasts Warm Barchart
- US natgas futures dip 2% to four-month low on mild forecasts, despite Northeast blizzard Reuters
- US Natgas Prices Extend Rise on Winter Storm Trading Economics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.84
Closest Support:
$2.83
0.35% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.01
41.2% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.83
Support
0.236
$4.01
Resistance
0.382
$4.74
0.5
$5.33
0.618
$5.92
0.786
$6.76
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.19
1.618
$10.92
2.0
$12.83
2.618
$15.92
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.91
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-24 23:47:49
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.26%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | $2.91 | $1.31 | $4.5 |
| 2026-02-26 | $2.9 | $1.31 | $4.5 |
| 2026-02-27 | $2.91 | $1.31 | $4.5 |
| 2026-02-28 | $2.91 | $1.32 | $4.51 |
| 2026-03-01 | $2.92 | $1.32 | $4.51 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.26% for the next trading day (2026-02-25), reaching $2.91.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-25 and 2026-03-01.
- The average confidence interval width is ~109.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.83 while resistance is at 4.01. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility given the predicted price movement of down 0.26% within the range of 1.31 to 4.5.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a negative shift of -17.12 BCFD, with a ratio of 0.869, indicating potential supply challenges. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with the bearish sentiment reflected in the news, particularly around demand concerns and geopolitical factors.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With a strong expectation for high heating demand due to the weather outlook, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices, which are currently under pressure. The market sentiment and recent price trends suggest a need for careful procurement strategies to ensure supply reliability.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment driven by negative news sentiment scores across key commodities like -0.700 for natural gas and -0.400 for crude oil. The strongest driving factors include geopolitical risks easing and a shift towards milder weather conditions, which may lead to demand reductions. Analysts should monitor these trends for potential shifts in market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.