Supply is robust, with Lower-48 production nearing record highs (108.7 to 113.4 Bcf/d) and the gas rig count at a 2.5-year high (133). This supply base is unfazed by $3 gas. However, demand is soft, with Lower-48 consumption down 30% year-over-year. While LNG remains a steady structural backbone (18.6 to 19.8 Bcf/d), it cannot offset mild weather and high production. Storage is tight but improving. The latest EIA withdrawal (144 Bcf) underperformed the 5-year average (151 Bcf), leaving inventories 5.6% below average. Analysts anticipate this deficit will narrow if mild weather persists as winter ends. Technically, the market shows range compression, struggling to hold above $3.10-$3.20 without sustained cold. The bigger picture pits resilient supply against a shrinking weather window. Production holding above 109 Bcf/d, coupled with below-average withdrawals, suggests sub-$3 pressure is possible. However, sustained late-season cold could re-ignite volatility. The market awaits data, not hope.
* Monday’s trading dropped all the way down to $3.00 leaving 3.247 and 3.127 back in the rear view - but leaving it wide open for a return as the drop below $3 was not pronounced….so more of a holding pattern.
* Tuesday dropped further to the next support level 2.924…this move has all the makings of dropping us down to 2.76 (the next big level down) - the move down was just enough to be bearish but not enough to box out the bulls….if the bulls recapture $3 - then $3.449 could be back on the table
* No big weather shifts - so not a lot of movement on Nat Gas - we’ll have to see what tomorrows storage will bring.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-25 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is navigating a robust supply landscape with Lower-48 production nearing record highs (over 108 Bcf/d) while facing a soft demand backdrop, down 30% year-over-year. The market saw prices dip to $3.00, influenced by mild weather, despite strong LNG exports. A recent EIA withdrawal (144 Bcf) fell short of the 5-year average, leaving inventories 5.6% below average. As we near the end of winter, sustained late-season cold could reignite volatility. Keep an eye on storage data and weather shifts for potential market movement.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 10.9 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 17.12 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.86
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.03
MA(20): $3.47
Current Price is 2.86, 9 day MA 3.03, 20 day MA 3.47
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3448
Signal: -0.2992
Days since crossover: 17
MACD crossed the line 17 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 39.31
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 39.31 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,516
Avg (20d): 190,112
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 0.12
%D: 3.33
Stochastic %K: 0.12, %D: 3.33. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.17
+DI: 25.65
-DI: 23.76
ADX: 14.17 (+DI: 25.65, -DI: 23.76). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -99.88
Williams %R: -99.88 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 5.43
Middle: 3.47
Lower: 1.51
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 5.43, Middle: 3.47, Lower: 1.51
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.7 | 108.1 | 103.9 | 103.07 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.7 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.6 |
| Total Supply | 113.4 | 113.3 | 111.5 | 108.8 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.0 | 23.3 | 26.7 | 25.07 |
| Electric Power Demand | 35.5 | 38.0 | 35.4 | 32.03 |
| Residential & Commercial | 38.8 | 46.3 | 53.5 | 39.9 |
| LNG Exports | 18.9 | 18.7 | 16.1 | 14.27 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 5.87 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 8.3 | 7.7 |
| Total Demand | 130.52 | 141.42 | 146.5 | 125.27 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -17.12 | -28.12 | -35.0 | -16.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
172.0 HDD
-7.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
152.0 HDD
-28.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
3.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
6.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/17 | 21.0 | 28.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/18 | 20.0 | 27.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/19 | 21.0 | 26.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/20 | 24.0 | 25.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/21 | 26.0 | 24.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/22 | 30.0 | 24.0 | +6.0 |
| 02/23 | 30.0 | 25.0 | +5.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/25 | 23.0 | 27.0 | -4.0 |
| 02/26 | 22.0 | 27.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/27 | 19.0 | 26.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/28 | 18.0 | 26.0 | -8.0 |
| 03/01 | 22.0 | 25.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/02 | 25.0 | 24.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 23.0 | 25.0 | -2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.61
Daily:
-0.27 (-0.27%)
Weekly:
-0.32 (-0.33%)
US_10Y
4.05
Daily:
0.01 (0.37%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.66%)
SP500
6946.13
Daily:
56.06 (0.81%)
Weekly:
84.24 (1.23%)
VIX
17.93
Daily:
-1.62 (-8.29%)
Weekly:
-2.3 (-11.37%)
GOLD
5210.8
Daily:
55.0 (1.07%)
Weekly:
234.9 (4.72%)
COPPER
6.03
Daily:
0.11 (1.85%)
Weekly:
0.3 (5.28%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-17
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,613,556
Change: -9,852
Managed Money
-26,765
Change: -18,577
-1.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
35,694
Change: +8,078
2.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
139,104
Change: +7,278
8.6% of OI
Other Reportables
-159,047
Change: +4,630
-9.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-17
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,087,493
Change: +16,955
Managed Money
63,785
Change: -15,361
3.1% of OI
Producer/Merchant
156,331
Change: -11,793
7.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-337,960
Change: -13,970
-16.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 11.339 EUR/MWh (-0.050). JKM prices decreased to 10.520 USD/MMBtu (-0.205). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.819 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.339
-0.050Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-25
JKM Prices
10.520
-0.205Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-02-25
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.819
-7.22%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-25
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.4
11.1
10.8
10.5
10.2
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.339 |
| APR 26 | 10.563 |
| MAY 26 | 10.474 |
| JUN 26 | 10.412 |
| JUL 26 | 10.406 |
| AUG 26 | 10.443 |
| SEP 26 | 10.575 |
| OCT 26 | 10.642 |
| NOV 26 | 10.765 |
| DEC 26 | 10.824 |
| JAN 27 | 10.864 |
| FEB 27 | 10.792 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 10.520 |
| MAY 26 | 10.260 |
| JUN 26 | 10.390 |
| JUL 26 | 10.530 |
| AUG 26 | 10.645 |
| SEP 26 | 10.545 |
| OCT 26 | 10.620 |
| NOV 26 | 10.655 |
| DEC 26 | 10.870 |
| JAN 27 | 11.010 |
| FEB 27 | 10.910 |
| MAR 27 | 10.260 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
61
Last Updated:
2026-02-25 23:47:53
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
Weather (6 articles)
- US natgas prices rise on strong LNG export flows, higher demand forecast for next week Reuters
- US natgas futures slide 2% to near five-month low on mild weather forecast Reuters
- Nat-Gas Prices Tumble on the Outlook for Warmer US Temperatures Barchart
- Nat-Gas Prices Erase Early Gains as US Weather Forecasts Warm Barchart
- US natgas futures dip 2% to four-month low on mild forecasts, despite Northeast blizzard Reuters
- US Natgas Prices Extend Rise on Winter Storm Trading Economics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.86
Closest Support:
$2.86
0.0% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.03
40.91% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.86
Current Price
0.236
$4.03
Resistance
0.382
$4.76
0.5
$5.34
0.618
$5.93
0.786
$6.76
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.18
1.618
$10.9
2.0
$12.8
2.618
$15.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.97
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-25 23:47:53
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.3%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | $2.96 | $1.37 | $4.55 |
| 2026-02-27 | $2.98 | $1.38 | $4.57 |
| 2026-02-28 | $2.97 | $1.38 | $4.57 |
| 2026-03-01 | $2.98 | $1.38 | $4.57 |
| 2026-03-02 | $2.97 | $1.38 | $4.57 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.30% for the next trading day (2026-02-26), reaching $2.96.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-26 and 2026-03-02.
- The average confidence interval width is ~107.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.86, while resistance is at 4.03. Traders should be cautious of potential price fluctuations as the ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.30% in the next day.
Given the current weather outlook showing high heating demand (HDD: 18.6), traders may find short-term opportunities in natural gas markets, especially in the Northeast and Midwest regions where heating demand is expected to dominate.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at -17.12 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply situation with a notable change of +11.00. Producers should closely monitor this shift as it may impact production planning and pricing strategies.
With the overall market sentiment being negative, particularly for crude oil (-0.400), hedging strategies may be crucial to mitigate risks associated with price declines. The geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran could also introduce further volatility in crude oil prices, necessitating a cautious approach to production and inventory management.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains bearish. The high heating demand forecast indicates that natural gas prices could remain elevated in the short term, particularly in regions with significant heating needs.
Additionally, with the weather outlook suggesting a dominant heating demand (particularly in the Northeast and Midwest), it is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that take into account potential supply reliability risks during peak demand periods.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market dynamics present a bearish outlook driven by several factors: a negative fundamental balance, bearish technical indicators, and overall negative news sentiment. The weather outlook suggests strong heating demand, which may support natural gas prices despite the bearish sentiment.
Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical risks on crude oil prices, as these may create opportunities for market shifts. The convergence of ML forecasts indicating a price decline may also warrant a reevaluation of market strategies moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.