Supply is robust, with Lower-48 production nearing record highs (108.7 to 113.4 Bcf/d) and the gas rig count at a 2.5-year high (133). This supply base is unfazed by $3 gas. However, demand is soft, with Lower-48 consumption down 30% year-over-year. While LNG remains a steady structural backbone (18.6 to 19.8 Bcf/d), it cannot offset mild weather and high production. Storage is tight but improving. The latest EIA withdrawal (144 Bcf) underperformed the 5-year average (151 Bcf), leaving inventories 5.6% below average. Analysts anticipate this deficit will narrow if mild weather persists as winter ends. Technically, the market shows range compression, struggling to hold above $3.10-$3.20 without sustained cold. The bigger picture pits resilient supply against a shrinking weather window. Production holding above 109 Bcf/d, coupled with below-average withdrawals, suggests sub-$3 pressure is possible. However, sustained late-season cold could re-ignite volatility. The market awaits data, not hope.
* Monday’s trading dropped all the way down to $3.00 leaving 3.247 and 3.127 back in the rear view - but leaving it wide open for a return as the drop below $3 was not pronounced….so more of a holding pattern.
* Tuesday dropped further to the next support level 2.924…this move has all the makings of dropping us down to 2.76 (the next big level down) - the move down was just enough to be bearish but not enough to box out the bulls….if the bulls recapture $3 - then $3.449 could be back on the table
* No big weather shifts - so not a lot of movement on Nat Gas - we’ll have to see what tomorrows storage will bring. Anchored around 2.848.
* Storage came out at -52 so traders took that as a bearish move (but it was already projected) so a slight drop down to 2.80 and an attempt at 2.762 but not quite there which leads to possible bullish turn.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-26 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas markets are currently navigating a complex landscape, with robust supply from record Lower-48 production (108.7-113.4 Bcf/d) and a gas rig count at a 2.5-year high (133). However, demand is soft, down 30% year-over-year, largely due to mild weather. Storage is improving but remains 5.6% below average, and recent EIA withdrawals have underperformed. Prices are under pressure, hovering around $3, with a potential drop to $2.76 if conditions don't change. Weather patterns and inventory data will be critical to watch moving forward.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.22 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.83
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.0
MA(20): $3.24
Current Price is 2.83, 9 day MA 3.0, 20 day MA 3.24
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3384
Signal: -0.3056
Days since crossover: 18
MACD crossed the line 18 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 39.15
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 39.15 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,095
Avg (20d): 185,012
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 0.95
%D: 3.99
Stochastic %K: 0.95, %D: 3.99. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 13.41
+DI: 24.69
-DI: 23.61
ADX: 13.41 (+DI: 24.69, -DI: 23.61). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -99.05
Williams %R: -99.05 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.95
Middle: 3.24
Lower: 2.54
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.95, Middle: 3.24, Lower: 2.54
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.8 | 108.7 | 103.7 | 102.67 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.6 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 5.57 |
| Total Supply | 113.4 | 113.4 | 110.3 | 108.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.9 | 22.0 | 25.3 | 24.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 36.0 | 35.5 | 33.0 | 31.73 |
| Residential & Commercial | 42.7 | 38.8 | 41.9 | 38.67 |
| LNG Exports | 18.9 | 18.9 | 16.4 | 14.37 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.63 |
| Total Demand | 135.62 | 130.52 | 130.8 | 120.93 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.22 | -17.12 | -20.5 | -12.6 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
179.0 HDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
152.0 HDD
-26.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
3.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
7.0 CDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/18 | 20.0 | 27.0 | -7.0 |
| 02/19 | 21.0 | 26.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/20 | 24.0 | 25.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/21 | 26.0 | 24.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/22 | 30.0 | 24.0 | +6.0 |
| 02/23 | 30.0 | 25.0 | +5.0 |
| 02/24 | 28.0 | 26.0 | +2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/26 | 21.0 | 27.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/27 | 18.0 | 26.0 | -8.0 |
| 02/28 | 18.0 | 26.0 | -8.0 |
| 03/01 | 23.0 | 25.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/02 | 27.0 | 24.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/03 | 25.0 | 25.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/04 | 20.0 | 25.0 | -5.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/18 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/26 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/04 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.64
Daily:
-0.06 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
-0.16 (-0.16%)
US_10Y
4.02
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.77%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.69%)
SP500
6908.86
Daily:
-37.27 (-0.54%)
Weekly:
-0.65 (-0.01%)
VIX
18.63
Daily:
0.7 (3.9%)
Weekly:
-0.46 (-2.41%)
GOLD
5204.3
Daily:
-2.1 (-0.04%)
Weekly:
145.0 (2.87%)
COPPER
6.05
Daily:
0.07 (1.13%)
Weekly:
0.22 (3.7%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-17
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,613,556
Change: -9,852
Managed Money
-26,765
Change: -18,577
-1.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
35,694
Change: +8,078
2.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
139,104
Change: +7,278
8.6% of OI
Other Reportables
-159,047
Change: +4,630
-9.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-17
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,087,493
Change: +16,955
Managed Money
63,785
Change: -15,361
3.1% of OI
Producer/Merchant
156,331
Change: -11,793
7.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-337,960
Change: -13,970
-16.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.346 EUR/MWh (+0.007). JKM prices increased to 10.595 USD/MMBtu (+0.075). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.751 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.346
+0.007Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-26
JKM Prices
10.595
+0.075Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-02-26
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.751
-6.62%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-26
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.4
11.1
10.8
10.5
10.2
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.346 |
| APR 26 | 10.708 |
| MAY 26 | 10.598 |
| JUN 26 | 10.535 |
| JUL 26 | 10.529 |
| AUG 26 | 10.562 |
| SEP 26 | 10.701 |
| OCT 26 | 10.767 |
| NOV 26 | 10.860 |
| DEC 26 | 10.915 |
| JAN 27 | 10.948 |
| FEB 27 | 10.871 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 10.595 |
| MAY 26 | 10.370 |
| JUN 26 | 10.500 |
| JUL 26 | 10.665 |
| AUG 26 | 10.745 |
| SEP 26 | 10.695 |
| OCT 26 | 10.745 |
| NOV 26 | 10.770 |
| DEC 26 | 10.975 |
| JAN 27 | 11.100 |
| FEB 27 | 11.000 |
| MAR 27 | 10.315 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.5
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
82
Last Updated:
2026-02-26 23:47:34
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.6
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
Demand (2 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
Weather (8 articles)
- Nat-Gas Prices Retreat on Larger Inventories and Warmer US Weather Barchart
- US natgas futures hit five-month low on milder weather forecasts, low storage draw Reuters
- US natgas futures hit six-month low on milder weather forecasts Reuters
- US natgas prices rise on strong LNG export flows, higher demand forecast for next week Reuters
- US natgas futures slide 2% to near five-month low on mild weather forecast Reuters
- Nat-Gas Prices Tumble on the Outlook for Warmer US Temperatures Barchart
- Nat-Gas Prices Erase Early Gains as US Weather Forecasts Warm Barchart
- US natgas futures dip 2% to four-month low on mild forecasts, despite Northeast blizzard Reuters
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.83
Closest Support:
$2.82
0.35% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$4.0
41.34% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.82
Support
0.236
$4.0
Resistance
0.382
$4.73
0.5
$5.32
0.618
$5.91
0.786
$6.76
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.19
1.618
$10.92
2.0
$12.84
2.618
$15.93
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.83
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-26 23:47:35
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.93%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | $2.85 | $1.26 | $4.45 |
| 2026-02-28 | $2.83 | $1.23 | $4.42 |
| 2026-03-01 | $2.85 | $1.26 | $4.45 |
| 2026-03-02 | $2.84 | $1.25 | $4.44 |
| 2026-03-03 | $2.86 | $1.26 | $4.45 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.93% for the next trading day (2026-02-27), reaching $2.85.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-27 and 2026-03-03.
- The average confidence interval width is ~112.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish outlook with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support is at 2.82, while resistance is at 4.0. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential price reversals.
Additionally, the fundamental balance is negative at -22.22 BCFD, indicating a tighter supply-demand dynamic. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward trend of 0.93%, suggesting short-term opportunities for traders to capitalize on price movements within the range of 1.26 to 4.45.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the market sentiment leaning towards bearish, producers should consider adjusting their production planning and hedging strategies accordingly. The fundamental balance indicates a significant change of -5.10, suggesting a potential oversupply situation that could pressure prices further.
Producers should also keep an eye on the weather outlook, which indicates moderate heating demand in residential and commercial sectors, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, where heating degree days (HDD) are notably high. This could influence short-term demand for natural gas.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains bearish. The current fundamental balance of -22.22 BCFD suggests that supply reliability could be at risk, which may impact procurement strategies.
With heating demand expected to dominate, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, consumers in these regions may face increased costs. It's advisable to consider hedging options to mitigate potential price spikes in natural gas and heating oil.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment with a score of -0.500 from news sentiment analysis. The overall market is experiencing pressures from negative fundamental balances and geopolitical risks, particularly in crude oil.
The fundamental balance of -22.22 BCFD highlights supply-demand discrepancies, while the mixed weather outlook suggests that heating demand will remain robust in certain regions, potentially impacting future price movements. Analysts should closely monitor these driving factors to identify potential shifts in market outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.