Supply is robust, with Lower-48 production nearing record highs (108.7 to 113.4 Bcf/d) and the gas rig count at a 2.5-year high (133). This supply base is unfazed by $3 gas. However, demand is soft, with Lower-48 consumption down 30% year-over-year. While LNG remains a steady structural backbone (18.6 to 19.8 Bcf/d), it cannot offset mild weather and high production. Storage is tight but improving. The latest EIA withdrawal (144 Bcf) underperformed the 5-year average (151 Bcf), leaving inventories 5.6% below average. Analysts anticipate this deficit will narrow if mild weather persists as winter ends. Technically, the market shows range compression, struggling to hold above $3.10-$3.20 without sustained cold. The bigger picture pits resilient supply against a shrinking weather window. Production holding above 109 Bcf/d, coupled with below-average withdrawals, suggests sub-$3 pressure is possible. However, sustained late-season cold could re-ignite volatility. The market awaits data, not hope.
* Monday’s trading dropped all the way down to $3.00 leaving 3.247 and 3.127 back in the rear view - but leaving it wide open for a return as the drop below $3 was not pronounced….so more of a holding pattern.
* Tuesday dropped further to the next support level 2.924…this move has all the makings of dropping us down to 2.76 (the next big level down) - the move down was just enough to be bearish but not enough to box out the bulls….if the bulls recapture $3 - then $3.449 could be back on the table
* No big weather shifts - so not a lot of movement on Nat Gas - we’ll have to see what tomorrows storage will bring. Anchored around 2.848.
* Storage came out at -52 so traders took that as a bearish move (but it was already projected) so a slight drop down to 2.80 and an attempt at 2.762 but not quite there which leads to possible bullish turn.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-27 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are navigating a complex landscape as supply remains robust, with production nearing record highs and a high gas rig count. However, demand is weak, down 30% year-over-year, and despite steady LNG exports, mild weather is limiting consumption. Recent EIA data indicates inventories are 5.6% below average, though withdrawals underperformed expectations. The market is currently hovering around $3, with technical indicators suggesting pressure below this level may emerge without a significant cold snap. All eyes are on weather patterns and storage data for direction.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.22 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.86
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.96
MA(20): $3.19
Current Price is 2.86, 9 day MA 2.96, 20 day MA 3.19
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3338
Signal: -0.3112
Days since crossover: 19
MACD crossed the line 19 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 39.77
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 39.77 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 101,859
Avg (20d): 185,257
Ratio: 0.55
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 15.16
%D: 10.24
Stochastic %K: 15.16, %D: 10.24. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 12.4
+DI: 24.21
-DI: 23.85
ADX: 12.4 (+DI: 24.21, -DI: 23.85). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -84.84
Williams %R: -84.84 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.84
Middle: 3.19
Lower: 2.54
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.84, Middle: 3.19, Lower: 2.54
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.8 | 108.7 | 103.7 | 102.67 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.6 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 5.57 |
| Total Supply | 113.4 | 113.4 | 110.3 | 108.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.9 | 22.0 | 25.3 | 24.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 36.0 | 35.5 | 33.0 | 31.73 |
| Residential & Commercial | 42.7 | 38.8 | 41.9 | 38.67 |
| LNG Exports | 18.9 | 18.9 | 16.4 | 14.37 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.63 |
| Total Demand | 135.62 | 130.52 | 130.8 | 120.93 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.22 | -17.12 | -20.5 | -12.6 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
184.0 HDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
144.0 HDD
-31.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
3.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
7.0 CDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/19 | 21.0 | 26.0 | -5.0 |
| 02/20 | 24.0 | 25.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/21 | 26.0 | 24.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/22 | 30.0 | 24.0 | +6.0 |
| 02/23 | 30.0 | 25.0 | +5.0 |
| 02/24 | 28.0 | 26.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/25 | 25.0 | 27.0 | -2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/27 | 17.0 | 26.0 | -9.0 |
| 02/28 | 18.0 | 26.0 | -8.0 |
| 03/01 | 23.0 | 25.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/02 | 27.0 | 24.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/03 | 24.0 | 25.0 | -1.0 |
| 03/04 | 19.0 | 25.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/05 | 16.0 | 24.0 | -8.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/04 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/05 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.65
Daily:
-0.14 (-0.15%)
Weekly:
-0.05 (-0.06%)
US_10Y
3.96
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.37%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.66%)
SP500
6878.88
Daily:
-29.98 (-0.43%)
Weekly:
41.13 (0.6%)
VIX
19.86
Daily:
1.23 (6.6%)
Weekly:
-1.15 (-5.47%)
GOLD
5296.4
Daily:
119.9 (2.32%)
Weekly:
91.7 (1.76%)
COPPER
6.06
Daily:
0.11 (1.92%)
Weekly:
0.29 (4.99%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-24
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,619,531
Change: +5,975
Managed Money
-75,875
Change: -49,110
-4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
30,372
Change: -5,322
1.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
152,809
Change: +13,705
9.4% of OI
Other Reportables
-122,644
Change: +36,403
-7.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-24
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,102,705
Change: +15,212
Managed Money
67,700
Change: +3,915
3.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
130,763
Change: -25,568
6.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-347,546
Change: -9,586
-16.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 11.366 EUR/MWh (+0.020). JKM prices increased to 10.605 USD/MMBtu (+0.010). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.761 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.366
+0.020Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-27
JKM Prices
10.605
+0.010Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-02-27
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.761
-6.70%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-27
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.4
11.2
11.0
10.7
10.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.366 |
| APR 26 | 11.116 |
| MAY 26 | 10.942 |
| JUN 26 | 10.851 |
| JUL 26 | 10.797 |
| AUG 26 | 10.822 |
| SEP 26 | 10.964 |
| OCT 26 | 11.036 |
| NOV 26 | 11.141 |
| DEC 26 | 11.189 |
| JAN 27 | 11.232 |
| FEB 27 | 11.122 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 10.605 |
| MAY 26 | 10.660 |
| JUN 26 | 10.770 |
| JUL 26 | 10.910 |
| AUG 26 | 10.990 |
| SEP 26 | 10.940 |
| OCT 26 | 11.000 |
| NOV 26 | 11.005 |
| DEC 26 | 11.230 |
| JAN 27 | 11.355 |
| FEB 27 | 11.245 |
| MAR 27 | 10.550 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
-0.1
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
83
Last Updated:
2026-02-27 23:47:34
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.1
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
Demand (3 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
Weather (6 articles)
- Nat-Gas Prices Retreat on Larger Inventories and Warmer US Weather Barchart
- US natgas futures hit five-month low on milder weather forecasts, low storage draw Reuters
- US natgas futures hit six-month low on milder weather forecasts Reuters
- US natgas prices rise on strong LNG export flows, higher demand forecast for next week Reuters
- US natgas futures slide 2% to near five-month low on mild weather forecast Reuters
- Nat-Gas Prices Tumble on the Outlook for Warmer US Temperatures Barchart
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.86
Closest Support:
$2.78
2.8% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
38.81% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.83
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-27 23:47:34
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.93%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | $2.85 | $1.26 | $4.45 |
| 2026-02-28 | $2.83 | $1.23 | $4.42 |
| 2026-03-01 | $2.85 | $1.26 | $4.45 |
| 2026-03-02 | $2.84 | $1.25 | $4.44 |
| 2026-03-03 | $2.86 | $1.26 | $4.45 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.93% for the next trading day (2026-02-27), reaching $2.85.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-27 and 2026-03-03.
- The average confidence interval width is ~112.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish outlook with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.78, while resistance is seen at 3.97. Traders should monitor price movements closely, particularly as the ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 0.93% in the next day, with a range between 1.26 and 4.45. This could present short-term trading opportunities, but the overall market sentiment remains neutral, indicating caution is warranted.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance is notably negative at -22.22 BCFD, which could impact production strategies. Producers should consider adjusting output levels in response to the bearish sentiment reflected in the technical indicators. Additionally, with geopolitical risks influencing prices, as indicated by the geopolitical sentiment score of -0.383, hedging strategies should be evaluated carefully to mitigate potential losses from price fluctuations. The moderate heating demand in the Northeast and Midwest regions may offer some stability in demand, but overall caution is advised.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the bearish market sentiment and negative fundamental balance. With heating demand expected to be moderate, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, procurement strategies should be adjusted accordingly. The weather outlook indicates a dominance of heating demand, which may stabilize prices in the short term but could also lead to supply reliability risks if production does not align with demand. Monitoring the ML price forecast will be crucial for making informed purchasing decisions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5 and a fundamental balance of -22.22 BCFD. The overall market sentiment remains neutral, indicating potential volatility ahead. Key driving factors include the moderate heating demand forecast and geopolitical tensions impacting crude oil prices. Analysts should focus on these elements and consider how they may shift the outlook in the coming weeks, particularly as the ML price forecast suggests a slight uptick in prices.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.