Natural gas settled $2.859 (+1.1%) despite warmer March forecasts, which tells you LNG is quietly running the show with feedgas averaging 18.7 Bcf/d in February and prints near ~19.9 Bcf/d late week. Production is elevated at roughly 108–113 Bcf/d, gas rigs just hit a 2.5-year high (134), and demand is forecast sliding from 137.6 → 125.3 → 112.9 Bcf/d over the next two weeks as HDDs run well below normal. Storage sits at 1,893 Bcf, about ~2% below the 5-year average, which is tight enough to prevent panic selling but not tight enough to spark a structural rally. The outlier screaming from the physical market is Waha at -$1.66 for 16 consecutive days, showing regional oversupply even while global gas benchmarks (TTF ~$11, JKM ~$10.6) justify strong U.S. exports. If crude volatility from Iran lifts global energy risk further, gas may catch sympathy bids via LNG economics, but absent weather or export disruption, rising supply and falling demand argue that rallies need a catalyst beyond headlines.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-02-28 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas settled at $2.859 (+1.1%) as LNG exports surged, averaging 18.7 Bcf/d, despite warmer forecasts predicting a drop in demand to 112.9 Bcf/d. Production remains high at 108-113 Bcf/d, while storage sits at 1,893 Bcf, slightly below the 5-year average. However, regional oversupply is evident with Waha prices consistently at -$1.66. While global energy prices and geopolitical risks may provide upward pressure, a rally needs more than just headlines—watch for actual demand shifts or export disruptions for significant price movement.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.22 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.86
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.96
MA(20): $3.19
Current Price is 2.86, 9 day MA 2.96, 20 day MA 3.19
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3337
Signal: -0.3112
Days since crossover: 19
MACD crossed the line 19 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 39.81
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 39.81 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 139,781
Avg (20d): 187,153
Ratio: 0.75
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 15.53
%D: 10.36
Stochastic %K: 15.53, %D: 10.36. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 12.4
+DI: 24.21
-DI: 23.85
ADX: 12.4 (+DI: 24.21, -DI: 23.85). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -84.47
Williams %R: -84.47 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.84
Middle: 3.19
Lower: 2.54
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.84, Middle: 3.19, Lower: 2.54
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.8 | 108.7 | 103.7 | 102.67 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.6 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 5.57 |
| Total Supply | 113.4 | 113.4 | 110.3 | 108.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.9 | 22.0 | 25.3 | 24.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 36.0 | 35.5 | 33.0 | 31.73 |
| Residential & Commercial | 42.7 | 38.8 | 41.9 | 38.67 |
| LNG Exports | 18.9 | 18.9 | 16.4 | 14.37 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.63 |
| Total Demand | 135.62 | 130.52 | 130.8 | 120.93 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.22 | -17.12 | -20.5 | -12.6 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
184.0 HDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
130.0 HDD
-43.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
8.0 CDD
+8.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/20 | 24.0 | 25.0 | -1.0 |
| 02/21 | 26.0 | 24.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/22 | 30.0 | 24.0 | +6.0 |
| 02/23 | 30.0 | 25.0 | +5.0 |
| 02/24 | 28.0 | 26.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/25 | 25.0 | 27.0 | -2.0 |
| 02/26 | 21.0 | 27.0 | -6.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/28 | 18.0 | 26.0 | -8.0 |
| 03/01 | 22.0 | 25.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/02 | 26.0 | 24.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/03 | 21.0 | 25.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/04 | 16.0 | 25.0 | -9.0 |
| 03/05 | 14.0 | 24.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/06 | 13.0 | 24.0 | -11.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/04 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/05 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/06 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.61
Daily:
-0.18 (-0.18%)
Weekly:
-0.09 (-0.09%)
US_10Y
3.96
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.37%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.66%)
SP500
6878.88
Daily:
-29.98 (-0.43%)
Weekly:
41.13 (0.6%)
VIX
19.86
Daily:
1.23 (6.6%)
Weekly:
-1.15 (-5.47%)
GOLD
5230.5
Daily:
54.0 (1.04%)
Weekly:
25.8 (0.5%)
COPPER
6.0
Daily:
0.06 (0.97%)
Weekly:
0.23 (4.01%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-24
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,619,531
Change: +5,975
Managed Money
-75,875
Change: -49,110
-4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
30,372
Change: -5,322
1.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
152,809
Change: +13,705
9.4% of OI
Other Reportables
-122,644
Change: +36,403
-7.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-24
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,102,705
Change: +15,212
Managed Money
67,700
Change: +3,915
3.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
130,763
Change: -25,568
6.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-347,546
Change: -9,586
-16.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 11.366 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices increased to 10.725 USD/MMBtu (+0.120). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.641 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.366
+0.000Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-02-28
JKM Prices
10.725
+0.120Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-02-28
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.641
-5.64%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-02-28
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.5
11.2
10.9
10.6
10.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.366 |
| APR 26 | 11.078 |
| MAY 26 | 10.940 |
| JUN 26 | 10.857 |
| JUL 26 | 10.797 |
| AUG 26 | 10.811 |
| SEP 26 | 10.934 |
| OCT 26 | 11.000 |
| NOV 26 | 11.096 |
| DEC 26 | 11.140 |
| JAN 27 | 11.170 |
| FEB 27 | 11.057 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 10.725 |
| MAY 26 | 10.805 |
| JUN 26 | 10.840 |
| JUL 26 | 10.900 |
| AUG 26 | 10.940 |
| SEP 26 | 10.895 |
| OCT 26 | 10.950 |
| NOV 26 | 10.935 |
| DEC 26 | 11.170 |
| JAN 27 | 11.275 |
| FEB 27 | 11.115 |
| MAR 27 | 10.465 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.033
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
64
Last Updated:
2026-02-28 23:47:39
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.3
NATURAL_GAS
0.4
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (3 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (4 articles)
- Nat-Gas Prices Retreat on Larger Inventories and Warmer US Weather Barchart
- US natgas futures hit five-month low on milder weather forecasts, low storage draw Reuters
- US natgas futures hit six-month low on milder weather forecasts Reuters
- US natgas prices rise on strong LNG export flows, higher demand forecast for next week Reuters
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.86
Closest Support:
$2.78
2.8% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
38.81% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.86
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-28 23:47:39
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.88%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | $2.83 | $1.24 | $4.43 |
| 2026-03-01 | $2.86 | $1.26 | $4.45 |
| 2026-03-02 | $2.85 | $1.25 | $4.44 |
| 2026-03-03 | $2.86 | $1.27 | $4.46 |
| 2026-03-04 | $2.86 | $1.26 | $4.45 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.88% for the next trading day (2026-02-28), reaching $2.83.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 1.1% between 2026-02-28 and 2026-03-04.
- The average confidence interval width is ~111.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions suggest a moderately bearish outlook with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is set at 2.78, while resistance is noted at 3.97. Traders should be cautious as the ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 0.88% with a range of 1.24 to 4.43. This suggests short-term opportunities could arise from price volatility, but risks remain elevated.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -22.22 BCFD, indicating tighter supply conditions. Producers may want to consider adjusting their production planning and hedging strategies in response to the overall market sentiment score of +0.333. However, with mixed weather forecasts favoring heating demand, it is essential to remain agile in operations to capitalize on potential price spikes due to geopolitical concerns.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the weather outlook indicating moderate heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices. The current fundamental balance reflects a notable deficit, which could impact supply reliability. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that account for these fluctuations, particularly as the market sentiment remains positive.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a complex picture with moderately bearish technical indicators offset by a positive news sentiment. The strong fundamental deficit of -22.22 BCFD indicates potential supply constraints, while the weather outlook favors heating demand. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and weather patterns, as these factors are likely to influence price movements and market dynamics significantly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.