Natural gas settled $2.859 (+1.1%) despite warmer March forecasts, which tells you LNG is quietly running the show with feedgas averaging 18.7 Bcf/d in February and prints near ~19.9 Bcf/d late week. Production is elevated at roughly 108–113 Bcf/d, gas rigs just hit a 2.5-year high (134), and demand is forecast sliding from 137.6 → 125.3 → 112.9 Bcf/d over the next two weeks as HDDs run well below normal. Storage sits at 1,893 Bcf, about ~2% below the 5-year average, which is tight enough to prevent panic selling but not tight enough to spark a structural rally. The outlier screaming from the physical market is Waha at -$1.66 for 16 consecutive days, showing regional oversupply even while global gas benchmarks (TTF ~$11, JKM ~$10.6) justify strong U.S. exports. If crude volatility from Iran lifts global energy risk further, gas may catch sympathy bids via LNG economics, but absent weather or export disruption, rising supply and falling demand argue that rallies need a catalyst beyond headlines.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-01 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas settled at $2.859 (+1.1%), buoyed by high LNG feedgas averaging 19.9 Bcf/d, despite warmer forecasts. Production remains elevated at 108-113 Bcf/d, and gas rigs hit a 2.5-year high. However, demand is projected to drop from 137.6 to 112.9 Bcf/d over the next two weeks. With storage at 1,893 Bcf (2% below the 5-year average), the market is tight but not panic-inducing. Notably, the Waha hub has faced a regional oversupply, trading at -$1.66, while global benchmarks support U.S. exports. Watch for demand shifts and geopolitical impacts
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.22 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.91
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.95
MA(20): $3.12
Current Price is 2.91, 9 day MA 2.95, 20 day MA 3.12
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3225
Signal: -0.3135
Days since crossover: 20
MACD crossed the line 20 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 40.81
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 40.81 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 11,224
Avg (20d): 170,132
Ratio: 0.07
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 24.21
%D: 15.21
Stochastic %K: 24.21, %D: 15.21. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.7
+DI: 24.74
-DI: 23.47
ADX: 11.7 (+DI: 24.74, -DI: 23.47). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -75.79
Williams %R: -75.79 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.51
Middle: 3.12
Lower: 2.73
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.51, Middle: 3.12, Lower: 2.73
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.8 | 108.7 | 103.7 | 102.67 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.6 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 5.57 |
| Total Supply | 113.4 | 113.4 | 110.3 | 108.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.9 | 22.0 | 25.3 | 24.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 36.0 | 35.5 | 33.0 | 31.73 |
| Residential & Commercial | 42.7 | 38.8 | 41.9 | 38.67 |
| LNG Exports | 18.9 | 18.9 | 16.4 | 14.37 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.63 |
| Total Demand | 135.62 | 130.52 | 130.8 | 120.93 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.22 | -17.12 | -20.5 | -12.6 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
178.0 HDD
-1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
114.0 HDD
-57.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
10.0 CDD
+10.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/21 | 26.0 | 24.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/22 | 30.0 | 24.0 | +6.0 |
| 02/23 | 30.0 | 25.0 | +5.0 |
| 02/24 | 28.0 | 26.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/25 | 25.0 | 27.0 | -2.0 |
| 02/26 | 21.0 | 27.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/27 | 18.0 | 26.0 | -8.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01 | 22.0 | 25.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/02 | 25.0 | 24.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 20.0 | 25.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/04 | 14.0 | 25.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/05 | 12.0 | 24.0 | -12.0 |
| 03/06 | 10.0 | 24.0 | -14.0 |
| 03/07 | 11.0 | 24.0 | -13.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/04 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/05 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/06 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/07 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.86
Daily:
0.25 (0.26%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.02%)
US_10Y
3.96
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.37%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.66%)
SP500
6878.88
Daily:
-29.98 (-0.43%)
Weekly:
41.13 (0.6%)
VIX
19.86
Daily:
1.23 (6.6%)
Weekly:
-1.15 (-5.47%)
GOLD
5364.8
Daily:
134.3 (2.57%)
Weekly:
209.0 (4.05%)
COPPER
6.04
Daily:
0.04 (0.63%)
Weekly:
0.12 (2.02%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-24
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,619,531
Change: +5,975
Managed Money
-75,875
Change: -49,110
-4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
30,372
Change: -5,322
1.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
152,809
Change: +13,705
9.4% of OI
Other Reportables
-122,644
Change: +36,403
-7.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-24
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,102,705
Change: +15,212
Managed Money
67,700
Change: +3,915
3.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
130,763
Change: -25,568
6.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-347,546
Change: -9,586
-16.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 11.366 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices increased to 10.725 USD/MMBtu (+0.120). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.641 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.366
+0.000Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-03-01
JKM Prices
10.725
+0.120Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-01
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.641
-5.64%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-01
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.5
11.2
10.9
10.6
10.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.366 |
| APR 26 | 11.078 |
| MAY 26 | 10.940 |
| JUN 26 | 10.857 |
| JUL 26 | 10.797 |
| AUG 26 | 10.811 |
| SEP 26 | 10.934 |
| OCT 26 | 11.000 |
| NOV 26 | 11.096 |
| DEC 26 | 11.140 |
| JAN 27 | 11.170 |
| FEB 27 | 11.057 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 10.725 |
| MAY 26 | 10.805 |
| JUN 26 | 10.840 |
| JUL 26 | 10.900 |
| AUG 26 | 10.940 |
| SEP 26 | 10.895 |
| OCT 26 | 10.950 |
| NOV 26 | 10.935 |
| DEC 26 | 11.170 |
| JAN 27 | 11.275 |
| FEB 27 | 11.115 |
| MAR 27 | 10.465 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.1
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
68
Last Updated:
2026-03-01 23:47:45
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
- Eni Q4 Profit Drops On Weak Prices, Despite Production Growth dpa-AFX
- TTF Gas Prices Poised to Jump on Middle East Supply Fears Trading Economics
- UK Natural Gas Futures Rise on LNG Supply Risks Trading Economics
Demand (2 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- Oil Gains on Increased Risk of U.S.-Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Jump on Rising U.S.-Iran Conflict Risk — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Nat-Gas Prices Push Higher on Geopolitical Risks Barchart
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.91
Closest Support:
$2.78
4.47% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
36.43% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.86
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-01 23:47:46
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.88%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | $2.83 | $1.24 | $4.43 |
| 2026-03-01 | $2.86 | $1.26 | $4.45 |
| 2026-03-02 | $2.85 | $1.25 | $4.44 |
| 2026-03-03 | $2.86 | $1.27 | $4.46 |
| 2026-03-04 | $2.86 | $1.26 | $4.45 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.88% for the next trading day (2026-02-28), reaching $2.83.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 1.1% between 2026-02-28 and 2026-03-04.
- The average confidence interval width is ~111.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market data indicates a moderately bearish outlook with a score of -2/5. Traders should pay attention to the Fibonacci support level of 2.78 and resistance at 3.97. The ML price forecast suggests a potential decline of 0.88%, indicating short-term volatility and opportunities to capitalize on price movements. The fundamental balance is negative at -22.22 BCFD, which may influence trading strategies.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The bearish sentiment in the market, particularly for natural gas with a sentiment score of -0.400, suggests caution in production planning. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines. Additionally, the weather outlook indicates moderate heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which may affect production levels and inventory management.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should be aware of potential cost fluctuations due to the negative fundamental balance and bearish market sentiment. The moderate heating demand forecast suggests reliable supply in the short term; however, with the fundamental balance at -22.22 BCFD, it may lead to supply reliability risks in the future. It may be prudent to consider procurement strategies to hedge against price volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape reflects a bearish sentiment driven by a negative fundamental balance and mixed weather impacts. The strongest driving factors include demand concerns reflected in the -22.22 BCFD balance and the heating demand forecast. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments and market sentiment shifts that may influence future price movements, particularly in natural gas and crude oil markets.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.