Natural gas settled $2.859 (+1.1%) despite warmer March forecasts, which tells you LNG is quietly running the show with feedgas averaging 18.7 Bcf/d in February and prints near ~19.9 Bcf/d late week. Production is elevated at roughly 108–113 Bcf/d, gas rigs just hit a 2.5-year high (134), and demand is forecast sliding from 137.6 → 125.3 → 112.9 Bcf/d over the next two weeks as HDDs run well below normal. Storage sits at 1,893 Bcf, about ~2% below the 5-year average, which is tight enough to prevent panic selling but not tight enough to spark a structural rally. The outlier screaming from the physical market is Waha at -$1.66 for 16 consecutive days, showing regional oversupply even while global gas benchmarks (TTF ~$11, JKM ~$10.6) justify strong U.S. exports. If crude volatility from Iran lifts global energy risk further, gas may catch sympathy bids via LNG economics, but absent weather or export disruption, rising supply and falling demand argue that rallies need a catalyst beyond headlines. Weather is showing a “less bearish” pattern after this spring weather pattern - March 10 is bringing back some cooler weather (note - not COLD but cooler). NG opened the week breaking above 2.924 and 3.00 which is a bullish reversal and could leave an island pattern down at 2.848 - the key drivers are slightly better forecasts but also concern about LNG flows out of Qatar which could make LNG cargos worth twice as much as they were (this would pull up Henry Hub pricing). This week is all about 3.00 - if that can be held then 3.449 is the target, if the bears take it back - then gap fill to 2.848 is where gravity will take Natty.
* Monday brought a wide range with most of the day being 2.924 to 3.00. The bulls failed to keep it above $3, which points to a gap fill down to 2.848. I am cautious about that position as I think we are closer to a base and would be building a long position here for a run to 3.449.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-02 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
**Natural Gas Summary:**
Natural gas settled at $2.859 (+1.1%), buoyed by strong LNG exports averaging 18.7 Bcf/d. Despite warmer forecasts, production remains high at 108–113 Bcf/d, causing demand projections to slide from 137.6 to 112.9 Bcf/d over the next two weeks. Storage is 2% below the 5-year average, preventing panic selling but lacking bullish momentum. Waha's outlier pricing at -$1.66 highlights regional oversupply, while geopolitical tensions may spark sympathy bids. Watch for resistance at $3; holding this level could signal a bullish reversal.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.22 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$3.02
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.96
MA(20): $3.12
Current Price is 3.02, 9 day MA 2.96, 20 day MA 3.12
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.3134
Signal: -0.3116
Days since crossover: 20
MACD crossed the line 20 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 43.1
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 43.1 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 4,022
Avg (20d): 168,238
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 45.29
%D: 22.23
Stochastic %K: 45.29, %D: 22.23. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.93
+DI: 25.97
-DI: 23.08
ADX: 11.93 (+DI: 25.97, -DI: 23.08). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -54.71
Williams %R: -54.71 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.5
Middle: 3.12
Lower: 2.74
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.5, Middle: 3.12, Lower: 2.74
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.8 | 108.7 | 103.7 | 102.67 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.6 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 5.57 |
| Total Supply | 113.4 | 113.4 | 110.3 | 108.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.9 | 22.0 | 25.3 | 24.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 36.0 | 35.5 | 33.0 | 31.73 |
| Residential & Commercial | 42.7 | 38.8 | 41.9 | 38.67 |
| LNG Exports | 18.9 | 18.9 | 16.4 | 14.37 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.63 |
| Total Demand | 135.62 | 130.52 | 130.8 | 120.93 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.22 | -17.12 | -20.5 | -12.6 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
171.0 HDD
-10.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
99.0 HDD
-70.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
10.0 CDD
+10.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/22 | 30.0 | 24.0 | +6.0 |
| 02/23 | 30.0 | 25.0 | +5.0 |
| 02/24 | 28.0 | 26.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/25 | 25.0 | 27.0 | -2.0 |
| 02/26 | 21.0 | 27.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/27 | 18.0 | 26.0 | -8.0 |
| 02/28 | 19.0 | 26.0 | -7.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02 | 24.0 | 24.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/03 | 19.0 | 25.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/04 | 14.0 | 25.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/05 | 11.0 | 24.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/06 | 10.0 | 24.0 | -14.0 |
| 03/07 | 11.0 | 24.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/08 | 10.0 | 23.0 | -13.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/22 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/04 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/05 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/06 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/07 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/08 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.57
Daily:
0.96 (0.98%)
Weekly:
0.69 (0.7%)
US_10Y
4.05
Daily:
0.09 (2.17%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.37%)
SP500
6881.62
Daily:
2.74 (0.04%)
Weekly:
-8.45 (-0.12%)
VIX
21.44
Daily:
1.58 (7.96%)
Weekly:
1.89 (9.67%)
GOLD
5385.0
Daily:
154.5 (2.95%)
Weekly:
229.2 (4.45%)
COPPER
5.99
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.22%)
Weekly:
0.07 (1.15%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-24
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,619,531
Change: +5,975
Managed Money
-75,875
Change: -49,110
-4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
30,372
Change: -5,322
1.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
152,809
Change: +13,705
9.4% of OI
Other Reportables
-122,644
Change: +36,403
-7.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-24
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,102,705
Change: +15,212
Managed Money
67,700
Change: +3,915
3.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
130,763
Change: -25,568
6.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-347,546
Change: -9,586
-16.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 11.366 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices increased to 10.725 USD/MMBtu (+0.120). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.641 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.366
+0.000Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-03-02
JKM Prices
10.725
+0.120Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-02
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.641
-5.64%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-02
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
11.5
11.2
10.9
10.6
10.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.366 |
| APR 26 | 11.078 |
| MAY 26 | 10.940 |
| JUN 26 | 10.857 |
| JUL 26 | 10.797 |
| AUG 26 | 10.811 |
| SEP 26 | 10.934 |
| OCT 26 | 11.000 |
| NOV 26 | 11.096 |
| DEC 26 | 11.140 |
| JAN 27 | 11.170 |
| FEB 27 | 11.057 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 10.725 |
| MAY 26 | 10.805 |
| JUN 26 | 10.840 |
| JUL 26 | 10.900 |
| AUG 26 | 10.940 |
| SEP 26 | 10.895 |
| OCT 26 | 10.950 |
| NOV 26 | 10.935 |
| DEC 26 | 11.170 |
| JAN 27 | 11.275 |
| FEB 27 | 11.115 |
| MAR 27 | 10.465 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.533
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
104
Last Updated:
2026-03-02 23:47:58
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.85
Top News Topics
Supply (12 articles)
- Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Threaten Jet Fuel Supply, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+'s April Output Increase Reflects Need to Manage Limited Spare Capacity — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Crude Oil Hits 9-Month High as Markets Brace for Iran Supply Crisis TradingView
- Middle East Conflict Likely to Lead to Only Brief Disruption to Energy Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil and gas prices surge as Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern output Reuters
- Oil Jumps as Middle East Conflict Heightens Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Oil Output Boost Could Be Moot if Strait of Hormuz Unavailable — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shipping Disruptions 'More Acute Risk' Than Oil Output From Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Supply Shock Would Hurt Most Asian Currencies — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas futures jump 4% on energy supply concerns from Iran conflict Reuters
- UK Gas Jumps 40% as Qatar Halts LNG Production Trading Economics
- TTF Gas Prices Poised to Jump on Middle East Supply Fears Trading Economics
Demand (3 articles)
Geopolitical (25 articles)
- Stocks slide as Middle East conflict fans inflation fears Reuters
- Oil jumps, dollar rallies with gold as conflict grips Middle East Reuters
- Oil jumps, stocks skid, dollar rallies as conflict grips Middle East Reuters
- Prospects of BOE Rate Cut in March Fall Amid Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Dents Central And Eastern European Currencies — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Could Delay Rate Cuts in Central and Eastern Europe — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Eurozone Bond Yields Rise as Middle East Conflict Sparks Inflation Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Could Overshadow U.K. Spring Statement — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil surges, stocks slide, dollar rallies as conflict grips Middle East Reuters
- Oil Prices Have Room to Rise Given Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Singapore Central Bank Could Tighten Policy Sooner Than Later — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Gilt Yields Rise as Middle East Conflict Stokes Inflation Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Balances Geopolitical Risks, Spare Capacity Management — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil surges, stocks slide as conflict grips Middle East Reuters
- Oil Price Surge From Iran Conflict Could Shave GDP Growth in Major Economies — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Likely to Lead to Only Brief Disruption to Energy Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Could Surpass $100 if Middle East Conflict Extends — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Escalating Middle East Conflict Could Raise Oil Prices Significantly — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Jumps as Middle East Conflict Heightens Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Likely to Rise on Iran Conflict But to Manageable Levels — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shipping Disruptions 'More Acute Risk' Than Oil Output From Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Gains on Increased Risk of U.S.-Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Jump on Rising U.S.-Iran Conflict Risk — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas futures jump 4% on energy supply concerns from Iran conflict Reuters
- Nat-Gas Prices Push Higher on Geopolitical Risks Barchart
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.02
Closest Support:
$2.78
7.95% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
31.46% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.96
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-02 23:47:58
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.43%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | $2.97 | $1.41 | $4.54 |
| 2026-03-04 | $2.98 | $1.42 | $4.55 |
| 2026-03-05 | $2.98 | $1.41 | $4.55 |
| 2026-03-06 | $2.98 | $1.41 | $4.54 |
| 2026-03-07 | $2.97 | $1.4 | $4.54 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.43% for the next trading day (2026-03-03), reaching $2.97.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-03 and 2026-03-07.
- The average confidence interval width is ~105.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market sentiment is currently bullish with a sentiment score of +0.533. However, the technical indicators are moderately bearish, with a score of -2/5. Key Fibonacci levels indicate support at 2.78 and resistance at 3.97.
The ML price forecast suggests a potential increase of 0.43%, with a trading range between 1.41 and 4.54. Traders should be cautious of volatility given the convergence of bearish technicals and bullish sentiment, which may lead to short-term opportunities but also risks if the market turns.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -22.22 BCFD, which might prompt producers to consider adjusting production levels. The moderately bearish technical outlook may influence hedging strategies, as market sentiment remains bullish for natural gas.
Producers should also monitor geopolitical developments, particularly the impacts of the Iran conflict on supply. The recent headlines indicate heightened concerns, suggesting that producers may need to prepare for potential disruptions in supply chains and adjust their operational strategies accordingly.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With a moderate heating demand expected, consumers should anticipate potential fluctuations in costs due to the supply deficit and geopolitical tensions affecting supply reliability.
Given the moderately bearish technical outlook, consumers may want to consider proactive procurement strategies or hedging to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and ensure stable supply during the heating season.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market is characterized by a bullish sentiment overall, despite the moderately bearish technical indicators. The fundamental balance indicates a significant supply deficit, which could lead to upward price pressure if demand remains steady.
Analysts should focus on the interplay between geopolitical factors and market sentiment, particularly as headlines related to the Iran conflict and LNG production halts in Qatar could influence both supply and demand dynamics. Monitoring these developments will be crucial for predicting potential shifts in market outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.