Natural gas settled $2.859 (+1.1%) despite warmer March forecasts, which tells you LNG is quietly running the show with feedgas averaging 18.7 Bcf/d in February and prints near ~19.9 Bcf/d late week. Production is elevated at roughly 108–113 Bcf/d, gas rigs just hit a 2.5-year high (134), and demand is forecast sliding from 137.6 → 125.3 → 112.9 Bcf/d over the next two weeks as HDDs run well below normal. Storage sits at 1,893 Bcf, about ~2% below the 5-year average, which is tight enough to prevent panic selling but not tight enough to spark a structural rally. The outlier screaming from the physical market is Waha at -$1.66 for 16 consecutive days, showing regional oversupply even while global gas benchmarks (TTF ~$11, JKM ~$10.6) justify strong U.S. exports. If crude volatility from Iran lifts global energy risk further, gas may catch sympathy bids via LNG economics, but absent weather or export disruption, rising supply and falling demand argue that rallies need a catalyst beyond headlines. Weather is showing a “less bearish” pattern after this spring weather pattern - March 10 is bringing back some cooler weather (note - not COLD but cooler). NG opened the week breaking above 2.924 and 3.00 which is a bullish reversal and could leave an island pattern down at 2.848 - the key drivers are slightly better forecasts but also concern about LNG flows out of Qatar which could make LNG cargos worth twice as much as they were (this would pull up Henry Hub pricing). This week is all about 3.00 - if that can be held then 3.449 is the target, if the bears take it back - then gap fill to 2.848 is where gravity will take Natty.
* Monday brought a wide range with most of the day being 2.924 to 3.00. The bulls failed to keep it above $3, which points to a gap fill down to 2.848. I am cautious about that position as I think we are closer to a base and would be building a long position here for a run to 3.449.
* Tuesday Natty ran up following crude showing strength above the 3.127 level for most of the day and then fell back to 3.05. A lot depends on weather - and while we have seen improvement in HDDs it is “less bearish”.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-03 23:50
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices recently settled at $2.859 (+1.1%), despite warmer forecasts, as LNG demand drives the market. Production remains elevated at 108-113 Bcf/d, while demand is forecasted to decline from 137.6 to 112.9 Bcf/d in the coming weeks. Storage levels are slightly below the 5-year average at 1,893 Bcf, preventing panic selling but lacking enough tightness for a rally. The outlier is the Waha market, showing significant regional oversupply, while geopolitical tensions may impact LNG flows. Watch for weather shifts and export dynamics as key drivers ahead.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand increased by 5.1 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 22.22 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$3.03
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.95
MA(20): $3.11
Current Price is 3.03, 9 day MA 2.95, 20 day MA 3.11
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.2972
Signal: -0.3095
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 43.31
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 43.31 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 7,236
Avg (20d): 149,383
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 46.4
%D: 32.04
Stochastic %K: 46.4, %D: 32.04. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.73
+DI: 26.07
-DI: 22.4
ADX: 11.73 (+DI: 26.07, -DI: 22.4). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -53.6
Williams %R: -53.6 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.49
Middle: 3.11
Lower: 2.73
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.49, Middle: 3.11, Lower: 2.73
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.8 | 108.7 | 103.7 | 102.67 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.13 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.6 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 5.57 |
| Total Supply | 113.4 | 113.4 | 110.3 | 108.33 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.9 | 22.0 | 25.3 | 24.9 |
| Electric Power Demand | 36.0 | 35.5 | 33.0 | 31.73 |
| Residential & Commercial | 42.7 | 38.8 | 41.9 | 38.67 |
| LNG Exports | 18.9 | 18.9 | 16.4 | 14.37 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.07 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.8 | 7.63 |
| Total Demand | 135.62 | 130.52 | 130.8 | 120.93 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -22.22 | -17.12 | -20.5 | -12.6 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
163.0 HDD
-19.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
85.0 HDD
-83.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
3.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
12.0 CDD
+12.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/23 | 30.0 | 25.0 | +5.0 |
| 02/24 | 28.0 | 26.0 | +2.0 |
| 02/25 | 25.0 | 27.0 | -2.0 |
| 02/26 | 21.0 | 27.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/27 | 18.0 | 26.0 | -8.0 |
| 02/28 | 19.0 | 26.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/01 | 22.0 | 25.0 | -3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03 | 19.0 | 25.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/04 | 14.0 | 25.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/05 | 13.0 | 24.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/06 | 11.0 | 24.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/07 | 10.0 | 24.0 | -14.0 |
| 03/08 | 9.0 | 23.0 | -14.0 |
| 03/09 | 9.0 | 23.0 | -14.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/23 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/25 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/04 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/05 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/06 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/07 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/08 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/09 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.13
Daily:
0.75 (0.77%)
Weekly:
1.43 (1.47%)
US_10Y
4.06
Daily:
0.01 (0.2%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.2%)
SP500
6816.63
Daily:
-64.99 (-0.94%)
Weekly:
-129.5 (-1.86%)
VIX
23.57
Daily:
2.13 (9.93%)
Weekly:
5.64 (31.46%)
GOLD
5173.0
Daily:
-121.4 (-2.29%)
Weekly:
-33.4 (-0.64%)
COPPER
5.91
Daily:
0.01 (0.2%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.23%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-24
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,619,531
Change: +5,975
Managed Money
-75,875
Change: -49,110
-4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
30,372
Change: -5,322
1.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
152,809
Change: +13,705
9.4% of OI
Other Reportables
-122,644
Change: +36,403
-7.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-02-24
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,102,705
Change: +15,212
Managed Money
67,700
Change: +3,915
3.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
130,763
Change: -25,568
6.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-347,546
Change: -9,586
-16.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 11.366 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices increased to 13.365 USD/MMBtu (+2.640). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.999 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
11.366
+0.000Front month: MAR 26
As of 2026-03-03
JKM Prices
13.365
+2.640Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-03
JKM-TTF Spread
1.999
17.59%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-03
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
17.0
15.5
13.9
12.4
10.8
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAR 26 | 11.366 |
| APR 26 | 15.052 |
| MAY 26 | 14.831 |
| JUN 26 | 14.413 |
| JUL 26 | 14.042 |
| AUG 26 | 13.647 |
| SEP 26 | 13.501 |
| OCT 26 | 13.098 |
| NOV 26 | 13.028 |
| DEC 26 | 12.942 |
| JAN 27 | 12.767 |
| FEB 27 | 12.321 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 13.365 |
| MAY 26 | 16.485 |
| JUN 26 | 15.175 |
| JUL 26 | 14.310 |
| AUG 26 | 13.750 |
| SEP 26 | 13.510 |
| OCT 26 | 13.075 |
| NOV 26 | 12.910 |
| DEC 26 | 12.970 |
| JAN 27 | 12.870 |
| FEB 27 | 12.380 |
| MAR 27 | 11.335 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.75
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
137
Last Updated:
2026-03-03 23:50:28
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
NATURAL_GAS
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (18 articles)
- Oil prices rise 1% as Iran crisis disrupts Middle East supply Reuters
- Oil rises over $1 as Iran crisis disrupts Middle East supply Reuters
- China Oil Supply Risks Remain Manageable in Near Term — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises as Middle East Conflict Keeps Supply Disruption Risks Elevated — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- RBA Cautious About Potential for Energy Supply Shocks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Threaten Jet Fuel Supply, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+'s April Output Increase Reflects Need to Manage Limited Spare Capacity — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Crude Oil Hits 9-Month High as Markets Brace for Iran Supply Crisis TradingView
- Middle East Conflict Likely to Lead to Only Brief Disruption to Energy Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil and gas prices surge as Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern output Reuters
- Oil Jumps as Middle East Conflict Heightens Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Oil Output Boost Could Be Moot if Strait of Hormuz Unavailable — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shipping Disruptions 'More Acute Risk' Than Oil Output From Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Supply Shock Would Hurt Most Asian Currencies — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Nat-Gas Prices Rally on Global Supply Disruptions Barchart
- US natgas futures jump 4% on energy supply concerns from Iran conflict Reuters
- UK Gas Jumps 40% as Qatar Halts LNG Production Trading Economics
- TTF Gas Prices Poised to Jump on Middle East Supply Fears Trading Economics
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (26 articles)
- Prolonged Middle East Conflict Could Weigh on Emerging Asian Economies — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Are Primary Channel of Mideast Conflict Impact to Financial Markets — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises as Middle East Conflict Keeps Supply Disruption Risks Elevated — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Stocks slide as Middle East conflict fans inflation fears Reuters
- Oil jumps, dollar rallies with gold as conflict grips Middle East Reuters
- Oil Rises On U.S.-Middle East Conflict, But Settles Off Highs — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil jumps, stocks skid, dollar rallies as conflict grips Middle East Reuters
- Prospects of BOE Rate Cut in March Fall Amid Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Dents Central And Eastern European Currencies — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Could Delay Rate Cuts in Central and Eastern Europe — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Eurozone Bond Yields Rise as Middle East Conflict Sparks Inflation Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Could Overshadow U.K. Spring Statement — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil surges, stocks slide, dollar rallies as conflict grips Middle East Reuters
- Oil Prices Have Room to Rise Given Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Singapore Central Bank Could Tighten Policy Sooner Than Later — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Gilt Yields Rise as Middle East Conflict Stokes Inflation Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Balances Geopolitical Risks, Spare Capacity Management — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil surges, stocks slide as conflict grips Middle East Reuters
- Oil Price Surge From Iran Conflict Could Shave GDP Growth in Major Economies — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Likely to Lead to Only Brief Disruption to Energy Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Could Surpass $100 if Middle East Conflict Extends — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Escalating Middle East Conflict Could Raise Oil Prices Significantly — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Jumps as Middle East Conflict Heightens Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Likely to Rise on Iran Conflict But to Manageable Levels — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shipping Disruptions 'More Acute Risk' Than Oil Output From Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas futures jump 4% on energy supply concerns from Iran conflict Reuters
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.03
Closest Support:
$2.78
8.25% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
31.02% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.05
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-03 23:50:28
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.15%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | $3.06 | $1.54 | $4.58 |
| 2026-03-05 | $3.07 | $1.55 | $4.59 |
| 2026-03-06 | $3.05 | $1.53 | $4.58 |
| 2026-03-07 | $3.05 | $1.53 | $4.57 |
| 2026-03-08 | $3.04 | $1.52 | $4.56 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2026-03-04), reaching $3.06.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-04 and 2026-03-08.
- The average confidence interval width is ~99.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 2.78 and resistance at 3.97. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility given the fundamental balance of -22.22 BCFD, which reflects a tightening supply. The ML price forecast suggests a slight uptick of 0.15%, indicating potential short-term opportunities, but risks remain due to overall bearish indicators.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market sentiment of +0.750 indicates positive expectations for crude oil and natural gas prices, driven by geopolitical tensions affecting supply. Producers should consider adjusting their production planning and hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price fluctuations. The moderate heating demand forecast may impact demand for natural gas, suggesting a need for adaptable operational strategies.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy prices, particularly as the market exhibits a moderately bearish outlook. The fundamental balance reflects a tightening supply scenario that could lead to higher prices. Additionally, the moderate heating demand suggests that procurement strategies may need to be adjusted to ensure supply reliability during colder months.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish technical indicators and a bullish sentiment driven by geopolitical factors. The fundamental balance of -22.22 BCFD suggests a tightening market, while the weather outlook indicates moderate heating demand. Analysts should monitor these factors closely as they could lead to shifts in market dynamics, particularly in response to evolving geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.