Natural gas settled $2.859 (+1.1%) despite warmer March forecasts, which tells you LNG is quietly running the show with feedgas averaging 18.7 Bcf/d in February and prints near ~19.9 Bcf/d late week. Production is elevated at roughly 108–113 Bcf/d, gas rigs just hit a 2.5-year high (134), and demand is forecast sliding from 137.6 → 125.3 → 112.9 Bcf/d over the next two weeks as HDDs run well below normal. Storage sits at 1,893 Bcf, about ~2% below the 5-year average, which is tight enough to prevent panic selling but not tight enough to spark a structural rally. The outlier screaming from the physical market is Waha at -$1.66 for 16 consecutive days, showing regional oversupply even while global gas benchmarks (TTF ~$11, JKM ~$10.6) justify strong U.S. exports. If crude volatility from Iran lifts global energy risk further, gas may catch sympathy bids via LNG economics, but absent weather or export disruption, rising supply and falling demand argue that rallies need a catalyst beyond headlines. Weather is showing a “less bearish” pattern after this spring weather pattern - March 10 is bringing back some cooler weather (note - not COLD but cooler). NG opened the week breaking above 2.924 and 3.00 which is a bullish reversal and could leave an island pattern down at 2.848 - the key drivers are slightly better forecasts but also concern about LNG flows out of Qatar which could make LNG cargos worth twice as much as they were (this would pull up Henry Hub pricing). This week is all about 3.00 - if that can be held then 3.449 is the target, if the bears take it back - then gap fill to 2.848 is where gravity will take Natty.
* Monday brought a wide range with most of the day being 2.924 to 3.00. The bulls failed to keep it above $3, which points to a gap fill down to 2.848. I am cautious about that position as I think we are closer to a base and would be building a long position here for a run to 3.449.
* Tuesday Natty ran up following crude showing strength above the 3.127 level for most of the day and then fell back to 3.05. A lot depends on weather - and while we have seen improvement in HDDs it is “less bearish”.
* Natty gas came back down to earth drifting back down to 2.924 as the key support - the bulls can still take it (and I think they will) but weather runs have not supported the run.
* Nat Gas climbed back to $3 based on tighter supply-demand and “normal” storage levels. As we are closing in on the “end of winter” we are looking at likely 1.6 TCF as the latest mark.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-06 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices settled at $2.859, up 1.1%, driven by elevated LNG feedgas averaging 18.7 Bcf/d despite warmer forecasts. Production hovers around 108–113 Bcf/d, while demand is projected to decline significantly over the next two weeks. Storage levels sit at 1,893 Bcf, just below the 5-year average, preventing panic but lacking a rally spark. An outlier remains the Waha price at -$1.66, indicating regional oversupply. Watch for weather changes and LNG export developments, as they could impact prices moving forward.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 5.8 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 16.32 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.18
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.97
MA(20): $3.05
Current Price is 3.18, 9 day MA 2.97, 20 day MA 3.05
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.2341
Signal: -0.284
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 47.47
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 47.47 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 186,333
Avg (20d): 153,014
Ratio: 1.22
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 80.59
%D: 50.72
Stochastic %K: 80.59, %D: 50.72. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.93
+DI: 29.16
-DI: 20.5
ADX: 11.93 (+DI: 29.16, -DI: 20.5). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -19.41
Williams %R: -19.41 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.33
Middle: 3.05
Lower: 2.77
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.33, Middle: 3.05, Lower: 2.77
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.3 | 107.8 | 106.2 | 103.2 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.2 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.93 |
| Total Supply | 113.5 | 113.4 | 111.5 | 108.3 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.9 | 24.4 | 24.23 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.6 | 36.0 | 28.1 | 30.0 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.7 | 32.6 | 32.8 |
| LNG Exports | 18.2 | 18.9 | 16.1 | 14.23 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.4 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 129.82 | 135.62 | 114.9 | 114.37 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -16.32 | -22.22 | -3.4 | -6.07 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
146.0 HDD
-32.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
76.0 HDD
-86.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
6.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
12.0 CDD
+12.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/26 | 21.0 | 27.0 | -6.0 |
| 02/27 | 18.0 | 26.0 | -8.0 |
| 02/28 | 19.0 | 26.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/01 | 22.0 | 25.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/02 | 25.0 | 24.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 23.0 | 25.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/04 | 18.0 | 25.0 | -7.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06 | 13.0 | 24.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/07 | 11.0 | 24.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/08 | 11.0 | 23.0 | -12.0 |
| 03/09 | 8.0 | 23.0 | -15.0 |
| 03/10 | 8.0 | 23.0 | -15.0 |
| 03/11 | 9.0 | 23.0 | -14.0 |
| 03/12 | 16.0 | 22.0 | -6.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/26 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 02/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/04 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/07 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/08 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/09 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/10 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/11 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/12 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.86
Daily:
-0.46 (-0.47%)
Weekly:
0.48 (0.48%)
US_10Y
4.13
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.31%)
Weekly:
0.09 (2.1%)
SP500
6740.02
Daily:
-90.69 (-1.33%)
Weekly:
-141.6 (-2.06%)
VIX
29.49
Daily:
5.74 (24.17%)
Weekly:
8.05 (37.55%)
GOLD
5181.3
Daily:
116.0 (2.29%)
Weekly:
-113.1 (-2.14%)
COPPER
5.84
Daily:
0.08 (1.47%)
Weekly:
-0.06 (-0.97%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-03
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,606,292
Change: -13,239
Managed Money
-76,252
Change: -377
-4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
18,397
Change: -11,975
1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
165,963
Change: +13,154
10.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-130,170
Change: -7,526
-8.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-03
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,073,033
Change: -29,672
Managed Money
68,385
Change: +685
3.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
178,669
Change: +47,906
8.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-400,996
Change: -53,450
-19.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.876 EUR/MWh (+0.469). JKM prices increased to 15.495 USD/MMBtu (+0.390). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.381 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.876
+0.469Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-06
JKM Prices
15.495
+0.390Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-06
JKM-TTF Spread
-1.381
-8.18%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-06
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.1
18.1
16.0
14.0
12.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 16.876 |
| MAY 26 | 16.614 |
| JUN 26 | 16.116 |
| JUL 26 | 15.523 |
| AUG 26 | 15.053 |
| SEP 26 | 14.846 |
| OCT 26 | 14.765 |
| NOV 26 | 14.590 |
| DEC 26 | 14.332 |
| JAN 27 | 14.018 |
| FEB 27 | 13.580 |
| MAR 27 | 12.737 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 15.495 |
| MAY 26 | 19.395 |
| JUN 26 | 17.810 |
| JUL 26 | 16.060 |
| AUG 26 | 15.380 |
| SEP 26 | 15.000 |
| OCT 26 | 14.905 |
| NOV 26 | 14.725 |
| DEC 26 | 14.570 |
| JAN 27 | 14.275 |
| FEB 27 | 13.815 |
| MAR 27 | 12.700 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.45
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
177
Last Updated:
2026-03-06 23:47:32
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.65
Top News Topics
Supply (8 articles)
- Oil Rises on Prospects of Prolonged Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Pressured by Bearish EIA Inventory Report Barchart
- China's Oil Reserves Cushion Impact of Middle East Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Supply Woes Keep European Gas Prices High — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises over $1 as Iran crisis disrupts Middle East supply Reuters
- Oil Rises Amid Lingering Prospects of Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Nat-Gas Prices Sharply Higher on Global Supply Risks Barchart
- Nat-Gas Prices Rally on Global Supply Disruptions Barchart
Demand (3 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (14 articles)
- Protracted Middle East Conflict Could Prompt Investors to Abandon Fed Rate Cut Expectations — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Resumes Climb As Middle East Conflict Continues — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Jobs Data Unlikely to Have Big Dollar Impact Amid Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Singapore's Energy-Related CPI Items Could Fluctuate More on Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI oil prices rise as Iran conflict widens Reuters
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Iran Conflict Barchart
- Middle East Conflict Poses Clear Risk For Sterling — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Halts Rally Amid Hopes of Iran Conflict Talks Trading Economics
- China's Mideast Oil, Gas Reliance Highlights Risks From U.S.-Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Fed's Williams Sees Oil Prices As Primary Impact From Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Dulls Impact of U.K. Spring Statement on Sterling, Gilts — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Risks Wiping Out U.K.'s Fiscal Headroom — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Prolonged Middle East Conflict Could Weigh on Emerging Asian Economies — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Are Primary Channel of Mideast Conflict Impact to Financial Markets — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.18
Closest Support:
$2.78
12.58% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
24.84% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.0
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-06 23:47:42
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.36%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | $2.96 | $1.45 | $4.48 |
| 2026-03-07 | $2.99 | $1.47 | $4.5 |
| 2026-03-08 | $2.97 | $1.45 | $4.48 |
| 2026-03-09 | $2.98 | $1.47 | $4.5 |
| 2026-03-10 | $2.97 | $1.46 | $4.49 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.36% for the next trading day (2026-03-06), reaching $2.96.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-06 and 2026-03-10.
- The average confidence interval width is ~101.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market sentiment is bullish overall, with a sentiment score of +0.450. However, technical indicators show a neutral interpretation with a score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.78 while resistance is at 3.97.
Short-term price forecast indicates a potential downward trend of 1.36%, with a range of 1.45 to 4.48. Traders should be cautious of volatility around the support and resistance levels, especially given the high heating demand expected in the Northeast and Midwest regions.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance is currently at -16.32 BCFD with a change of +5.90, indicating a tightening supply scenario. This could influence production planning and necessitate strategic adjustments in hedging strategies.
Market sentiment for natural gas is positive at +0.650, driven by increased demand forecasts. Producers should consider leveraging this sentiment in their operational strategies, particularly in regions experiencing high heating demand.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the forecast indicating high heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The current sentiment suggests a positive outlook for demand, which may lead to price increases in the near term.
Given the tightening supply indicated by the fundamental data, procurement strategies should be revisited to ensure supply reliability. Consumers may want to consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently experiencing a convergence of bullish sentiment across several key indicators, particularly in natural gas and heating oil. The fundamental balance reflects a tightening supply scenario, while weather forecasts indicate a significant rise in heating demand.
Analysts should closely monitor the technical indicators, especially the Fibonacci levels, as they may signal shifts in market dynamics. The overall sentiment is positive, suggesting potential bullish trends, but caution is warranted given the risk of volatility in response to supply and demand fluctuations.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.