Natural gas is trading like a market caught between two very different realities: domestically comfortable supply and globally tightening LNG risk. Henry Hub bounced from $2.85 to $3.18 this week even as warmer weather slashed demand forecasts from ~137 Bcf/d toward ~113 Bcf/d, which tells you the real driver isn’t heating demand but LNG economics, with feedgas hovering 18–20 Bcf/d and global benchmarks exploding higher after the Qatar Ras Laffan shutdown (≈20% of global LNG supply). Underneath that sits a well-fed U.S. market with production near 110 Bcf/d, gas rigs at a 2.5-year high, and storage at ~1,893 Bcf (about 2% below the 5-year average), tight enough to prevent panic selling but hardly screaming shortage. The physical market is flashing its own contradiction with Waha prices stuck around –$1.80 for weeks, proof that regional oversupply still exists even while the world is scrambling for LNG cargoes. Technically the battlefield is $3.00: hold it and the market can hunt $3.449, lose it and gravity likely drags prices back toward the $2.848 gap. So the real question for natty isn’t just weather anymore, it’s whether global LNG disruption and energy geopolitics can overpower rising U.S. supply long enough to force a structural repricing of Henry Hub.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-07 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is navigating a dual reality: strong U.S. supply and escalating global LNG demand. Last week, Henry Hub prices rose from $2.85 to $3.18, driven more by international market pressures than domestic heating needs. With U.S. production around 110 Bcf/d and storage levels near the 5-year average, the market remains well-supplied. However, global disruptions—like Qatar's Ras Laffan shutdown—are pushing prices higher. The pivotal level to watch is $3.00; holding this could signal further gains, while a drop risks a slide back toward $2.85.
In summary, the natural gas market is being pulled in different directions: robust U.S. supply vs. tightening
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 5.8 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 16.32 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.19
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.97
MA(20): $3.05
Current Price is 3.19, 9 day MA 2.97, 20 day MA 3.05
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.2338
Signal: -0.2839
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 47.56
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 47.56 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 148,177
Avg (20d): 151,106
Ratio: 0.98
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 81.39
%D: 50.99
Stochastic %K: 81.39, %D: 50.99. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.93
+DI: 29.16
-DI: 20.5
ADX: 11.93 (+DI: 29.16, -DI: 20.5). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -18.61
Williams %R: -18.61 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.33
Middle: 3.05
Lower: 2.77
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.33, Middle: 3.05, Lower: 2.77
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.3 | 107.8 | 106.2 | 103.2 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.2 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.93 |
| Total Supply | 113.5 | 113.4 | 111.5 | 108.3 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.9 | 24.4 | 24.23 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.6 | 36.0 | 28.1 | 30.0 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.7 | 32.6 | 32.8 |
| LNG Exports | 18.2 | 18.9 | 16.1 | 14.23 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.4 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 129.82 | 135.62 | 114.9 | 114.37 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -16.32 | -22.22 | -3.4 | -6.07 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
142.0 HDD
-33.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
84.0 HDD
-75.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
7.0 CDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
11.0 CDD
+11.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/27 | 18.0 | 26.0 | -8.0 |
| 02/28 | 19.0 | 26.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/01 | 22.0 | 25.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/02 | 25.0 | 24.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 23.0 | 25.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/04 | 18.0 | 25.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/05 | 17.0 | 24.0 | -7.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | 11.0 | 24.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/08 | 11.0 | 23.0 | -12.0 |
| 03/09 | 9.0 | 23.0 | -14.0 |
| 03/10 | 9.0 | 23.0 | -14.0 |
| 03/11 | 12.0 | 23.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/12 | 16.0 | 22.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/13 | 16.0 | 21.0 | -5.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/27 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 02/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/04 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/05 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/08 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/09 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/10 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/11 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/12 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/13 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.99
Daily:
-0.33 (-0.33%)
Weekly:
0.61 (0.62%)
US_10Y
4.13
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.31%)
Weekly:
0.09 (2.1%)
SP500
6740.02
Daily:
-90.69 (-1.33%)
Weekly:
-141.6 (-2.06%)
VIX
29.49
Daily:
5.74 (24.17%)
Weekly:
8.05 (37.55%)
GOLD
5146.1
Daily:
80.8 (1.6%)
Weekly:
-148.3 (-2.8%)
COPPER
5.76
Daily:
0.0 (0.07%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-2.33%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-03
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,606,292
Change: -13,239
Managed Money
-76,252
Change: -377
-4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
18,397
Change: -11,975
1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
165,963
Change: +13,154
10.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-130,170
Change: -7,526
-8.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-03
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,073,033
Change: -29,672
Managed Money
68,385
Change: +685
3.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
178,669
Change: +47,906
8.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-400,996
Change: -53,450
-19.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 17.592 EUR/MWh (+0.716). JKM prices increased to 15.710 USD/MMBtu (+0.215). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.882 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
17.592
+0.716Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-07
JKM Prices
15.710
+0.215Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-07
JKM-TTF Spread
-1.882
-10.70%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-07
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.6
19.0
17.3
15.6
13.9
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 17.592 |
| MAY 26 | 17.796 |
| JUN 26 | 17.431 |
| JUL 26 | 16.998 |
| AUG 26 | 16.689 |
| SEP 26 | 16.589 |
| OCT 26 | 16.558 |
| NOV 26 | 16.466 |
| DEC 26 | 16.283 |
| JAN 27 | 16.082 |
| FEB 27 | 15.702 |
| MAR 27 | 14.655 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 15.710 |
| MAY 26 | 20.080 |
| JUN 26 | 18.925 |
| JUL 26 | 17.550 |
| AUG 26 | 16.975 |
| SEP 26 | 16.650 |
| OCT 26 | 16.535 |
| NOV 26 | 16.400 |
| DEC 26 | 16.365 |
| JAN 27 | 16.245 |
| FEB 27 | 15.780 |
| MAR 27 | 14.465 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.45
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
129
Last Updated:
2026-03-07 23:47:24
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.65
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- Nat-Gas Prices Sharply Higher on Global Supply Risks Barchart
- Oil Rises on Prospects of Prolonged Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Pressured by Bearish EIA Inventory Report Barchart
- China's Oil Reserves Cushion Impact of Middle East Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Supply Woes Keep European Gas Prices High — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (3 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (8 articles)
- Protracted Middle East Conflict Could Prompt Investors to Abandon Fed Rate Cut Expectations — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Resumes Climb As Middle East Conflict Continues — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Jobs Data Unlikely to Have Big Dollar Impact Amid Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Singapore's Energy-Related CPI Items Could Fluctuate More on Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI oil prices rise as Iran conflict widens Reuters
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Iran Conflict Barchart
- Middle East Conflict Poses Clear Risk For Sterling — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Halts Rally Amid Hopes of Iran Conflict Talks Trading Economics
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.19
Closest Support:
$2.78
12.85% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
24.45% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.19
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-07 23:47:24
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.15%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | $3.19 | $1.8 | $4.59 |
| 2026-03-08 | $3.21 | $1.81 | $4.6 |
| 2026-03-09 | $3.19 | $1.8 | $4.59 |
| 2026-03-10 | $3.19 | $1.79 | $4.58 |
| 2026-03-11 | $3.18 | $1.78 | $4.57 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2026-03-07), reaching $3.19.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-07 and 2026-03-11.
- The average confidence interval width is ~87.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.78, while resistance is at 3.97. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility given the mixed indicators.
The bullish news sentiment, with a score of +0.433, suggests potential upward price movement, especially in the context of a 0.15% increase forecasted for the next day. However, the overall fundamental balance shows a deficit of -16.32 BCFD, which could create short-term risks.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a negative fundamental balance of -16.32 BCFD and a bullish sentiment in the news, producers should consider adjusting their production planning to meet the anticipated demand surge, particularly in heating sectors.
Given the weather outlook indicating moderate heating demand, producers may want to enhance their hedging strategies to protect against potential price fluctuations driven by demand spikes. The Fibonacci levels can also guide pricing strategies, particularly if prices approach resistance levels.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains positive. The expected moderate heating demand could lead to increased prices, particularly as the next day forecast suggests a slight uptick of 0.15%.
Given the fundamental balance deficit, consumers should also assess their supply reliability and consider procurement strategies to hedge against possible price volatility in the near term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment, driven by a combination of factors including a negative fundamental balance and favorable weather outlook for heating demand. The -16.32 BCFD balance indicates supply constraints that could impact pricing.
Analysts should closely monitor the Fibonacci levels at 2.78 and 3.97 for potential breakout points. The next day price forecast suggests a slight upward movement, but the overall market remains sensitive to geopolitical and supply news, which could shift sentiment rapidly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.