Natural gas is trading like a market caught between two very different realities: domestically comfortable supply and globally tightening LNG risk. Henry Hub bounced from $2.85 to $3.18 this week even as warmer weather slashed demand forecasts from ~137 Bcf/d toward ~113 Bcf/d, which tells you the real driver isn’t heating demand but LNG economics, with feedgas hovering 18–20 Bcf/d and global benchmarks exploding higher after the Qatar Ras Laffan shutdown (≈20% of global LNG supply). Underneath that sits a well-fed U.S. market with production near 110 Bcf/d, gas rigs at a 2.5-year high, and storage at ~1,893 Bcf (about 2% below the 5-year average), tight enough to prevent panic selling but hardly screaming shortage. The physical market is flashing its own contradiction with Waha prices stuck around –$1.80 for weeks, proof that regional oversupply still exists even while the world is scrambling for LNG cargoes. Technically the battlefield is $3.00: hold it and the market can hunt $3.449, lose it and gravity likely drags prices back toward the $2.848 gap. So the real question for natty isn’t just weather anymore, it’s whether global LNG disruption and energy geopolitics can overpower rising U.S. supply long enough to force a structural repricing of Henry Hub.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-08 13:12
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is in a tug-of-war between domestic supply comfort and global LNG risks. Prices bounced from $2.85 to $3.18, driven by a surge in LNG feedgas and geopolitical tensions, particularly with Qatar's Ras Laffan shutdown affecting about 20% of global supply. U.S. production remains robust at 110 Bcf/d, but Waha prices languish around –$1.80, showcasing regional oversupply. The $3.00 mark is pivotal; holding it could lead to higher prices, while falling below risks dragging prices back toward $2.85. Geopolitical developments will be crucial to watch.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 5.8 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 16.32 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.19
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.97
MA(20): $3.05
Current Price is 3.19, 9 day MA 2.97, 20 day MA 3.05
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.2338
Signal: -0.2839
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 47.56
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 47.56 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 186,333
Avg (20d): 153,014
Ratio: 1.22
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 81.39
%D: 50.99
Stochastic %K: 81.39, %D: 50.99. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.93
+DI: 29.16
-DI: 20.5
ADX: 11.93 (+DI: 29.16, -DI: 20.5). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -18.61
Williams %R: -18.61 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.33
Middle: 3.05
Lower: 2.77
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.33, Middle: 3.05, Lower: 2.77
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.3 | 107.8 | 106.2 | 103.2 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.2 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.93 |
| Total Supply | 113.5 | 113.4 | 111.5 | 108.3 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.9 | 24.4 | 24.23 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.6 | 36.0 | 28.1 | 30.0 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.7 | 32.6 | 32.8 |
| LNG Exports | 18.2 | 18.9 | 16.1 | 14.23 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.4 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 129.82 | 135.62 | 114.9 | 114.37 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -16.32 | -22.22 | -3.4 | -6.07 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
138.0 HDD
-35.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
87.0 HDD
-69.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
8.0 CDD
+8.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
11.0 CDD
+11.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/28 | 19.0 | 26.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/01 | 22.0 | 25.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/02 | 25.0 | 24.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 23.0 | 25.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/04 | 18.0 | 25.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/05 | 17.0 | 24.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/06 | 14.0 | 24.0 | -10.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | 11.0 | 23.0 | -12.0 |
| 03/09 | 9.0 | 23.0 | -14.0 |
| 03/10 | 9.0 | 23.0 | -14.0 |
| 03/11 | 10.0 | 23.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/12 | 16.0 | 22.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/13 | 16.0 | 21.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/14 | 16.0 | 21.0 | -5.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/04 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/05 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/06 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/09 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/10 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/11 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/12 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/13 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/14 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.86
Daily:
-0.46 (-0.47%)
Weekly:
0.48 (0.48%)
US_10Y
4.13
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.31%)
Weekly:
0.09 (2.1%)
SP500
6740.02
Daily:
-90.69 (-1.33%)
Weekly:
-141.6 (-2.06%)
VIX
29.49
Daily:
5.74 (24.17%)
Weekly:
8.05 (37.55%)
GOLD
5158.7
Daily:
93.4 (1.84%)
Weekly:
-135.7 (-2.56%)
COPPER
5.81
Daily:
0.05 (0.94%)
Weekly:
-0.09 (-1.48%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-03
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,606,292
Change: -13,239
Managed Money
-76,252
Change: -377
-4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
18,397
Change: -11,975
1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
165,963
Change: +13,154
10.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-130,170
Change: -7,526
-8.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-03
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,073,033
Change: -29,672
Managed Money
68,385
Change: +685
3.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
178,669
Change: +47,906
8.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-400,996
Change: -53,450
-19.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 17.592 EUR/MWh (+0.716). JKM prices increased to 15.710 USD/MMBtu (+0.215). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.882 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
17.592
+0.716Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-08
JKM Prices
15.710
+0.215Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-08
JKM-TTF Spread
-1.882
-10.70%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-08
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.6
19.0
17.3
15.6
13.9
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 17.592 |
| MAY 26 | 17.796 |
| JUN 26 | 17.431 |
| JUL 26 | 16.998 |
| AUG 26 | 16.689 |
| SEP 26 | 16.589 |
| OCT 26 | 16.558 |
| NOV 26 | 16.466 |
| DEC 26 | 16.283 |
| JAN 27 | 16.082 |
| FEB 27 | 15.702 |
| MAR 27 | 14.655 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 15.710 |
| MAY 26 | 20.080 |
| JUN 26 | 18.925 |
| JUL 26 | 17.550 |
| AUG 26 | 16.975 |
| SEP 26 | 16.650 |
| OCT 26 | 16.535 |
| NOV 26 | 16.400 |
| DEC 26 | 16.365 |
| JAN 27 | 16.245 |
| FEB 27 | 15.780 |
| MAR 27 | 14.465 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-06 to 2026-03-07
Latest LNG Flow
18.60
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.00
(+0.0%)
30-Day Average
18.74
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.20
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | 18.80 | N/A |
| 2026-02-27 | 19.00 | +0.20 |
| 2026-02-28 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-01 | 18.60 | -0.40 |
| 2026-03-02 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-03 | 18.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-03-04 | 18.40 | -0.40 |
| 2026-03-05 | 18.20 | -0.20 |
| 2026-03-06 | 18.60 | +0.40 |
| 2026-03-07 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.45
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
103
Last Updated:
2026-03-08 13:12:00
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.65
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Oil Rises on Prospects of Prolonged Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Nat-Gas Prices Sharply Higher on Global Supply Risks Barchart
Demand (3 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Oil Resumes Climb As Middle East Conflict Continues — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Jobs Data Unlikely to Have Big Dollar Impact Amid Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Singapore's Energy-Related CPI Items Could Fluctuate More on Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI oil prices rise as Iran conflict widens Reuters
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Iran Conflict Barchart
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.19
Closest Support:
$2.78
12.85% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
24.45% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.19
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-08 13:12:00
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.15%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | $3.19 | $1.8 | $4.59 |
| 2026-03-08 | $3.21 | $1.81 | $4.6 |
| 2026-03-09 | $3.19 | $1.8 | $4.59 |
| 2026-03-10 | $3.19 | $1.79 | $4.58 |
| 2026-03-11 | $3.18 | $1.78 | $4.57 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2026-03-07), reaching $3.19.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-07 and 2026-03-11.
- The average confidence interval width is ~87.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market is currently in a neutral state, with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci levels indicate a support at 2.78 and a resistance at 3.97. Given the ML price forecast suggesting a slight increase of 0.15%, traders should remain vigilant for short-term opportunities, particularly if prices approach the support level. Volatility may arise from the current bullish news sentiment and the significant fundamental balance change of -16.32 BCFD, which could lead to price fluctuations.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The bullish sentiment in the market, combined with increased heating demand due to the weather outlook, suggests that producers should consider adjusting their production planning to capitalize on higher prices. The current fundamental balance indicates a significant change of +5.90, which may warrant a review of hedging strategies to mitigate potential risks associated with price volatility. Additionally, the positive news sentiment around demand could further support price increases, making it an opportune time to optimize operational efficiencies.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the market exhibiting a bullish sentiment and moderate heating demand expected, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas prices. The fundamental balance shows a significant deficit, which could lead to supply reliability risks in the near term. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies or hedging options to mitigate the impact of rising prices, especially as the weather outlook indicates continued heating demand across multiple regions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently influenced by several factors indicating a bullish outlook. The key drivers include a notable fundamental balance change of -16.32 BCFD and a strong weather outlook favoring heating demand. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement, reinforcing the overall positive sentiment. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and their potential impact on supply, as the geopolitical sentiment remains mixed, particularly concerning crude oil and Middle East tensions.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.