Natural gas is trading like a market caught between two very different realities: domestically comfortable supply and globally tightening LNG risk. Henry Hub bounced from $2.85 to $3.18 this week even as warmer weather slashed demand forecasts from ~137 Bcf/d toward ~113 Bcf/d, which tells you the real driver isn’t heating demand but LNG economics, with feedgas hovering 18–20 Bcf/d and global benchmarks exploding higher after the Qatar Ras Laffan shutdown (≈20% of global LNG supply). Underneath that sits a well-fed U.S. market with production near 110 Bcf/d, gas rigs at a 2.5-year high, and storage at ~1,893 Bcf (about 2% below the 5-year average), tight enough to prevent panic selling but hardly screaming shortage. The physical market is flashing its own contradiction with Waha prices stuck around –$1.80 for weeks, proof that regional oversupply still exists even while the world is scrambling for LNG cargoes. Technically the battlefield is $3.00: hold it and the market can hunt $3.449, lose it and gravity likely drags prices back toward the $2.848 gap. So the real question for natty isn’t just weather anymore, it’s whether global LNG disruption and energy geopolitics can overpower rising U.S. supply long enough to force a structural repricing of Henry Hub.
* Nat Gas opened up and gapped all the way up to 3.449 (target level that we identified) but then quickly reversed and closed the weekend gap - ending Monday trading around 3.10 which is IMHO too low for the fundamental levels. A return to 3.449 seems very likely.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-09 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently navigating a dual reality: robust U.S. supply against a backdrop of rising global LNG demand. Henry Hub prices climbed from $2.85 to $3.18, despite cooler weather lowering domestic demand forecasts. With production at 110 Bcf/d and storage slightly below the 5-year average, the U.S. market remains stable. However, disruptions in global LNG supply—like the Qatar Ras Laffan shutdown—are creating upward pressure. Watch for technical resistance around $3.00, as a breach could signal a run towards $3.449 amid geopolitical tensions.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 5.8 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 16.32 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.11
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.99
MA(20): $3.04
Current Price is 3.11, 9 day MA 2.99, 20 day MA 3.04
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.2118
Signal: -0.2695
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.16
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.16 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 11,461
Avg (20d): 140,922
Ratio: 0.08
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 66.93
%D: 64.55
Stochastic %K: 66.93, %D: 64.55. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 12.32
+DI: 28.11
-DI: 19.76
ADX: 12.32 (+DI: 28.11, -DI: 19.76). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -33.07
Williams %R: -33.07 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.26
Middle: 3.04
Lower: 2.81
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.26, Middle: 3.04, Lower: 2.81
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.3 | 107.8 | 106.2 | 103.2 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.2 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.93 |
| Total Supply | 113.5 | 113.4 | 111.5 | 108.3 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.9 | 24.4 | 24.23 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.6 | 36.0 | 28.1 | 30.0 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.7 | 32.6 | 32.8 |
| LNG Exports | 18.2 | 18.9 | 16.1 | 14.23 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.4 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 129.82 | 135.62 | 114.9 | 114.37 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -16.32 | -22.22 | -3.4 | -6.07 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
133.0 HDD
-38.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
89.0 HDD
-65.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
9.0 CDD
+9.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
11.0 CDD
+11.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01 | 22.0 | 25.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/02 | 25.0 | 24.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 23.0 | 25.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/04 | 18.0 | 25.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/05 | 17.0 | 24.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/06 | 14.0 | 24.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/07 | 14.0 | 24.0 | -10.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | 9.0 | 23.0 | -14.0 |
| 03/10 | 8.0 | 23.0 | -15.0 |
| 03/11 | 10.0 | 23.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/12 | 15.0 | 22.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/13 | 16.0 | 21.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/14 | 16.0 | 21.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/15 | 15.0 | 21.0 | -6.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/04 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/05 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/06 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/07 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/10 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/11 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/12 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/13 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/14 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/15 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.9
Daily:
-0.09 (-0.09%)
Weekly:
-0.15 (-0.15%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
0.0 (0.07%)
Weekly:
0.08 (1.97%)
SP500
6795.99
Daily:
55.97 (0.83%)
Weekly:
-20.64 (-0.3%)
VIX
25.5
Daily:
-3.99 (-13.53%)
Weekly:
1.93 (8.19%)
GOLD
5172.3
Daily:
26.2 (0.51%)
Weekly:
64.9 (1.27%)
COPPER
5.9
Daily:
0.14 (2.46%)
Weekly:
0.12 (2.17%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-03
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,606,292
Change: -13,239
Managed Money
-76,252
Change: -377
-4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
18,397
Change: -11,975
1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
165,963
Change: +13,154
10.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-130,170
Change: -7,526
-8.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-03
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,073,033
Change: -29,672
Managed Money
68,385
Change: +685
3.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
178,669
Change: +47,906
8.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-400,996
Change: -53,450
-19.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 17.592 EUR/MWh (+0.716). JKM prices increased to 15.710 USD/MMBtu (+0.215). JKM is trading at a discount of 1.882 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
17.592
+0.716Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-09
JKM Prices
15.710
+0.215Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-09
JKM-TTF Spread
-1.882
-10.70%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-09
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.6
19.0
17.3
15.6
13.9
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 17.592 |
| MAY 26 | 17.796 |
| JUN 26 | 17.431 |
| JUL 26 | 16.998 |
| AUG 26 | 16.689 |
| SEP 26 | 16.589 |
| OCT 26 | 16.558 |
| NOV 26 | 16.466 |
| DEC 26 | 16.283 |
| JAN 27 | 16.082 |
| FEB 27 | 15.702 |
| MAR 27 | 14.655 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 15.710 |
| MAY 26 | 20.080 |
| JUN 26 | 18.925 |
| JUL 26 | 17.550 |
| AUG 26 | 16.975 |
| SEP 26 | 16.650 |
| OCT 26 | 16.535 |
| NOV 26 | 16.400 |
| DEC 26 | 16.365 |
| JAN 27 | 16.245 |
| FEB 27 | 15.780 |
| MAR 27 | 14.465 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-07 to 2026-03-08
Latest LNG Flow
18.90
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.30
(+1.6%)
30-Day Average
18.74
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.20
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | 19.00 | N/A |
| 2026-02-28 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-01 | 18.60 | -0.40 |
| 2026-03-02 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-03 | 18.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-03-04 | 18.40 | -0.40 |
| 2026-03-05 | 18.20 | -0.20 |
| 2026-03-06 | 18.60 | +0.40 |
| 2026-03-07 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-08 | 18.90 | +0.30 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.45
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
132
Last Updated:
2026-03-09 23:47:45
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.7
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
Top News Topics
Supply (12 articles)
- US natgas futures jump 4% as cooler weather looms, Iran war supply concerns Reuters
- US Natgas Jumps on Global Supply Risks Trading Economics
- Nat-Gas Prices Sharply Higher on Global Supply Risks Barchart
- Oil Prices Surpass $100 Amid Supply Disruptions Trading Economics
- Middle East Oil Shut-Ins Raise Risk of Lasting Supply Losses — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Surges Above $100 As Gulf Producers Cut Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Unlikely to Structurally Damage Global Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Drag on Oil Supply Could Remain Beyond Middle East Conflict's Duration — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Surpass $110 Amid Supply Disruptions Trading Economics
- US oil prices jump on supply fears amid expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran Reuters
- Angola Ramps Up Oil Production as Prices Surge — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Brent Crude Hits $90 A Barrel As Supply Worries Grow — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (16 articles)
- Middle East Conflict Keeps Oil Above $100 A Barrel — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Swiss Franc Stays Near Highest Level Since 2015 on Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Rises as Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Unlikely to Structurally Damage Global Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict a Showcase of Difficulty to Control a War — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Rates Markets Price in Hawkish Central Bank Policy on Oil Shock — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Drag on Oil Supply Could Remain Beyond Middle East Conflict's Duration — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Indonesia's Trade Outlook Darkens Amid Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shares slide, oil surges on risk of lengthy Middle East conflict Reuters
- Oil Futures Surge Above $100/bbl Amid Growing Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil soars, shares slide in Asia as Middle East conflict rages Reuters
- Oil Extends Gains As Persian Gulf Conflict Drags On — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict to Drive Up U.K. Inflation — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Has Limited Scope to Rise if Middle East Conflict is Brief — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Iran Conflict's Impact on Japan's Economy Likely Limited — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Protracted Middle East Conflict Could Prompt Investors to Abandon Fed Rate Cut Expectations — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.11
Closest Support:
$2.78
10.61% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
27.65% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.19
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-09 23:47:46
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.16%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | $3.19 | $1.8 | $4.59 |
| 2026-03-08 | $3.21 | $1.81 | $4.6 |
| 2026-03-09 | $3.19 | $1.8 | $4.59 |
| 2026-03-10 | $3.19 | $1.79 | $4.58 |
| 2026-03-11 | $3.18 | $1.78 | $4.57 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.16% for the next trading day (2026-03-07), reaching $3.19.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-07 and 2026-03-11.
- The average confidence interval width is ~87.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a score of -1/5. Traders should pay attention to the Fibonacci support level at 2.78 and resistance at 3.97. With a bullish overall market sentiment (score: +0.450), short-term price direction is expected to trend upward, as indicated by the ML price forecast suggesting an increase of 0.16%. However, volatility could arise due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply dynamics. Monitoring regional heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, may present short-term trading opportunities.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -16.32 BCFD, with a notable increase of +5.90. This indicates a tightening supply situation, which may influence production planning. The bullish sentiment in natural gas (+0.700) suggests a favorable market for producers, particularly with high heating demand forecasted. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price fluctuations driven by geopolitical events and weather impacts.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With high heating demand expected across regions, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply, which could lead to higher prices. The overall market sentiment suggests that consumers may face increased energy costs in the near term. It is advisable to review procurement strategies and consider hedging options to manage exposure to rising prices.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape is characterized by a bullish sentiment overall, driven by significant demand for heating amid cooler weather forecasts. The fundamental balance reflects a tightening supply situation, with a deficit of -16.32 BCFD. Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical tensions on supply stability and pricing. The convergence of high heating demand and bullish sentiment indicates a potential shift in market dynamics that warrants close monitoring.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for tailored guidance.