Natural gas is trading like a market caught between two very different realities: domestically comfortable supply and globally tightening LNG risk. Henry Hub bounced from $2.85 to $3.18 this week even as warmer weather slashed demand forecasts from ~137 Bcf/d toward ~113 Bcf/d, which tells you the real driver isn’t heating demand but LNG economics, with feedgas hovering 18–20 Bcf/d and global benchmarks exploding higher after the Qatar Ras Laffan shutdown (≈20% of global LNG supply). Underneath that sits a well-fed U.S. market with production near 110 Bcf/d, gas rigs at a 2.5-year high, and storage at ~1,893 Bcf (about 2% below the 5-year average), tight enough to prevent panic selling but hardly screaming shortage. The physical market is flashing its own contradiction with Waha prices stuck around –$1.80 for weeks, proof that regional oversupply still exists even while the world is scrambling for LNG cargoes. Technically the battlefield is $3.00: hold it and the market can hunt $3.449, lose it and gravity likely drags prices back toward the $2.848 gap. So the real question for natty isn’t just weather anymore, it’s whether global LNG disruption and energy geopolitics can overpower rising U.S. supply long enough to force a structural repricing of Henry Hub.
* Nat Gas opened up and gapped all the way up to 3.449 (target level that we identified) but then quickly reversed and closed the weekend gap - ending Monday trading around 3.10 which is IMHO too low for the fundamental levels. A return to 3.449 seems very likely.
* Tuesday trading brought a sympathy bearish run alongside WTI collapsing prices. Add in that the latest weather runs is bringing some more HDDs for March 15, but then a really REALLY mild March 22. This is a good area to build a longer term bull position imho (3.449 is likely the target to watch).
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-10 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas has been juggling two contrasting realities: a robust domestic supply and tightening global LNG dynamics. Prices soared from $2.85 to $3.18, driven by escalating LNG feedgas demand amid a supply crunch after Qatar's Ras Laffan shutdown, despite forecasts of reduced domestic demand. With U.S. production around 110 Bcf/d and storage near 1,893 Bcf, the market is stable but cautious. Key to watch is the $3.00 threshold; maintaining it could lead to a bullish move towards $3.449, while a drop could pull prices down towards $2.848.
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**Key Developments & Statistics:**
- Henry Hub fluctuated between $2.85 and $3.18
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 5.8 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 16.32 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$3.02
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.99
MA(20): $3.03
Current Price is 3.02, 9 day MA 2.99, 20 day MA 3.03
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.199
Signal: -0.2553
Days since crossover: 6
MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 44.42
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 44.42 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 4,155
Avg (20d): 144,067
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 34.49
%D: 54.62
Stochastic %K: 34.49, %D: 54.62. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 13.72
+DI: 30.08
-DI: 18.07
ADX: 13.72 (+DI: 30.08, -DI: 18.07). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -65.51
Williams %R: -65.51 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.25
Middle: 3.03
Lower: 2.81
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.25, Middle: 3.03, Lower: 2.81
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.3 | 107.8 | 106.2 | 103.2 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.2 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.93 |
| Total Supply | 113.5 | 113.4 | 111.5 | 108.3 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.9 | 24.4 | 24.23 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.6 | 36.0 | 28.1 | 30.0 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.7 | 32.6 | 32.8 |
| LNG Exports | 18.2 | 18.9 | 16.1 | 14.23 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.4 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 129.82 | 135.62 | 114.9 | 114.37 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -16.32 | -22.22 | -3.4 | -6.07 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
123.0 HDD
-46.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
101.0 HDD
-51.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
9.0 CDD
+9.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
14.0 CDD
+14.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02 | 25.0 | 24.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 23.0 | 25.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/04 | 18.0 | 25.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/05 | 17.0 | 24.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/06 | 14.0 | 24.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/07 | 14.0 | 24.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/08 | 12.0 | 23.0 | -11.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | 9.0 | 23.0 | -14.0 |
| 03/11 | 10.0 | 23.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/12 | 16.0 | 22.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/13 | 17.0 | 21.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/14 | 15.0 | 21.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/15 | 14.0 | 21.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/16 | 20.0 | 21.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/03 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/04 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/05 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/06 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/07 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/08 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/11 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/12 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/13 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/14 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/15 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/16 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.78
Daily:
-0.4 (-0.4%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.01%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.37%)
SP500
6781.48
Daily:
-14.51 (-0.21%)
Weekly:
-88.02 (-1.28%)
VIX
24.93
Daily:
-0.57 (-2.24%)
Weekly:
3.78 (17.87%)
GOLD
5217.2
Daily:
125.7 (2.47%)
Weekly:
97.0 (1.89%)
COPPER
5.94
Daily:
0.14 (2.37%)
Weekly:
0.08 (1.42%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-03
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,606,292
Change: -13,239
Managed Money
-76,252
Change: -377
-4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
18,397
Change: -11,975
1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
165,963
Change: +13,154
10.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-130,170
Change: -7,526
-8.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-03
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,073,033
Change: -29,672
Managed Money
68,385
Change: +685
3.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
178,669
Change: +47,906
8.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-400,996
Change: -53,450
-19.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 18.348 EUR/MWh (+0.756). JKM prices increased to 16.230 USD/MMBtu (+0.520). JKM is trading at a discount of 2.118 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
18.348
+0.756Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-10
JKM Prices
16.230
+0.520Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-10
JKM-TTF Spread
-2.118
-11.54%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-10
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
21.7
20.1
18.6
17.0
15.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 18.348 |
| MAY 26 | 18.885 |
| JUN 26 | 18.563 |
| JUL 26 | 18.219 |
| AUG 26 | 17.982 |
| SEP 26 | 17.849 |
| OCT 26 | 17.764 |
| NOV 26 | 17.583 |
| DEC 26 | 17.462 |
| JAN 27 | 17.351 |
| FEB 27 | 17.116 |
| MAR 27 | 16.039 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 16.230 |
| MAY 26 | 21.145 |
| JUN 26 | 20.100 |
| JUL 26 | 19.085 |
| AUG 26 | 18.435 |
| SEP 26 | 18.135 |
| OCT 26 | 17.925 |
| NOV 26 | 17.710 |
| DEC 26 | 17.705 |
| JAN 27 | 17.610 |
| FEB 27 | 17.330 |
| MAR 27 | 16.010 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-08 to 2026-03-09
Latest LNG Flow
18.20
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.70
(-3.7%)
30-Day Average
18.73
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.20
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | 19.00 | N/A |
| 2026-03-01 | 18.60 | -0.40 |
| 2026-03-02 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-03 | 18.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-03-04 | 18.40 | -0.40 |
| 2026-03-05 | 18.20 | -0.20 |
| 2026-03-06 | 18.60 | +0.40 |
| 2026-03-07 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-08 | 18.90 | +0.30 |
| 2026-03-09 | 18.20 | -0.70 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
149
Last Updated:
2026-03-10 23:47:38
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
NATURAL_GAS
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (14 articles)
- US oil prices up 5% as Middle East crisis constrains supply Reuters
- Oil Futures Fall Amid Developments That Could Help Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Prospect of Added Supply From Oil Reserves Ease Inflation Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Settles Off Highs As G7 Discusses Tapping Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Reports of Saudi Production Shut-Ins Keep Bid in Crude — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Surpass $100 Amid Supply Disruptions Trading Economics
- Middle East Oil Shut-Ins Raise Risk of Lasting Supply Losses — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Surges Above $100 As Gulf Producers Cut Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Unlikely to Structurally Damage Global Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Drag on Oil Supply Could Remain Beyond Middle East Conflict's Duration — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Surpass $110 Amid Supply Disruptions Trading Economics
- US oil prices jump on supply fears amid expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran Reuters
- US natgas futures jump 4% as cooler weather looms, Iran war supply concerns Reuters
- US Natgas Jumps on Global Supply Risks Trading Economics
Demand (1 articles)
- Palm Oil Gains Supported by Biofuel Demand Amid Crude Surge — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (17 articles)
- Oil Prices Likely to Remain Higher Than Pre-Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Likely to Be Short-Term Event — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sterling Rises After Trump Suggests Middle East Conflict Could Soon End — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Iran Conflict Continues to Cast Uncertainty Over Oil Market — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Asian Policy Tightening Unlikely Unless Oil Prices Remain High — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Puts End to Crude Consolidation — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Keeps Oil Above $100 A Barrel — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Swiss Franc Stays Near Highest Level Since 2015 on Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Rises as Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Unlikely to Structurally Damage Global Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict a Showcase of Difficulty to Control a War — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Rates Markets Price in Hawkish Central Bank Policy on Oil Shock — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Drag on Oil Supply Could Remain Beyond Middle East Conflict's Duration — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Indonesia's Trade Outlook Darkens Amid Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shares slide, oil surges on risk of lengthy Middle East conflict Reuters
- Oil Futures Surge Above $100/bbl Amid Growing Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil soars, shares slide in Asia as Middle East conflict rages Reuters
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.02
Closest Support:
$2.78
7.95% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
31.46% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.02
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-10 23:47:38
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.5%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | $3.0 | $1.63 | $4.37 |
| 2026-03-12 | $2.99 | $1.62 | $4.36 |
| 2026-03-13 | $2.99 | $1.62 | $4.36 |
| 2026-03-14 | $3.0 | $1.63 | $4.37 |
| 2026-03-15 | $3.0 | $1.63 | $4.37 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.50% for the next trading day (2026-03-11), reaching $3.00.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-11 and 2026-03-15.
- The average confidence interval width is ~91.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market data indicates a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.78, while resistance is noted at 3.97. Traders should be cautious as the fundamental balance shows a significant change of -16.32 BCFD with a ratio of 0.874, indicating potential supply issues.
With the heating demand expected to dominate, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, traders might find short-term opportunities in natural gas contracts. However, the ML price forecast suggests a potential decrease of 0.50% in the next day, indicating caution is warranted.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market dynamics present mixed signals for production planning. The bearish sentiment reflected in the technical indicators may necessitate adjustments in hedging strategies to mitigate potential losses. The fundamental balance of -16.32 BCFD suggests tightening supply, which could impact pricing strategies moving forward.
Producers should monitor the high heating demand across regions, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, as this may influence production schedules. Given the neutral overall market sentiment, it is essential to remain agile and responsive to changing demand patterns and geopolitical developments.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market leans towards a moderately bearish outlook. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply with a change of +5.90, which could lead to increased prices in the near future.
With high heating demand expected, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, consumers may face reliability risks in supply during peak demand periods. It may be prudent to consider procurement strategies or hedging against price increases in the coming weeks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market currently presents a complex picture. The bearish technical sentiment combined with a fundamental balance of -16.32 BCFD suggests that supply constraints could be a significant factor affecting prices. The high heating demand across regions will likely drive short-term volatility.
Analysts should closely monitor the ML price forecasts which indicate a potential decline, and the neutral news sentiment may reflect market indecision. Overall, the strongest driving factors appear to be the combination of weather impacts and geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding oil supply.
Disclaimer: This response is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.