Natural gas is trading like a market caught between two very different realities: domestically comfortable supply and globally tightening LNG risk. Henry Hub bounced from $2.85 to $3.18 this week even as warmer weather slashed demand forecasts from ~137 Bcf/d toward ~113 Bcf/d, which tells you the real driver isn’t heating demand but LNG economics, with feedgas hovering 18–20 Bcf/d and global benchmarks exploding higher after the Qatar Ras Laffan shutdown (≈20% of global LNG supply). Underneath that sits a well-fed U.S. market with production near 110 Bcf/d, gas rigs at a 2.5-year high, and storage at ~1,893 Bcf (about 2% below the 5-year average), tight enough to prevent panic selling but hardly screaming shortage. The physical market is flashing its own contradiction with Waha prices stuck around –$1.80 for weeks, proof that regional oversupply still exists even while the world is scrambling for LNG cargoes. Technically the battlefield is $3.00: hold it and the market can hunt $3.449, lose it and gravity likely drags prices back toward the $2.848 gap. So the real question for natty isn’t just weather anymore, it’s whether global LNG disruption and energy geopolitics can overpower rising U.S. supply long enough to force a structural repricing of Henry Hub.
* Nat Gas opened up and gapped all the way up to 3.449 (target level that we identified) but then quickly reversed and closed the weekend gap - ending Monday trading around 3.10 which is IMHO too low for the fundamental levels. A return to 3.449 seems very likely.
* Tuesday trading brought a sympathy bearish run alongside WTI collapsing prices. Add in that the latest weather runs is bringing some more HDDs for March 15, but then a really REALLY mild March 22. This is a good area to build a longer term bull position imho (3.449 is likely the target to watch).
* Natty retraced back up to a more “believable” level that brought us back to 3.17 (3.247 and 3.449 are targets and likely to be on the next stops). Weather is looking more and more bearish…but fair value is higher than current trading.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-11 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently navigating a tricky terrain, with domestic supply remaining robust while global LNG dynamics tighten. Prices surged from $2.85 to $3.18, driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Iran conflict, despite a drop in U.S. demand forecasts. Production remains high at 110 Bcf/d, and storage is near the 5-year average. The market is at a crossroads, with $3.00 as a critical level: holding could lead to a rally toward $3.449, while a drop could send prices back toward $2.848.
**Key Developments & Statistics:**
- Henry Hub price fluctuated from $2.85 to $3.18 this week.
- U.S. production
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 5.8 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 16.32 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.27
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.04
MA(20): $3.04
Current Price is 3.27, 9 day MA 3.04, 20 day MA 3.04
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1677
Signal: -0.2378
Days since crossover: 7
MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 49.93
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 49.93 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 9,649
Avg (20d): 145,850
Ratio: 0.07
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 68.57
%D: 50.21
Stochastic %K: 68.57, %D: 50.21. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.41
+DI: 30.86
-DI: 17.92
ADX: 14.41 (+DI: 30.86, -DI: 17.92). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -31.43
Williams %R: -31.43 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.28
Middle: 3.04
Lower: 2.8
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.28, Middle: 3.04, Lower: 2.8
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.3 | 107.8 | 106.2 | 103.2 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.2 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.93 |
| Total Supply | 113.5 | 113.4 | 111.5 | 108.3 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.9 | 24.4 | 24.23 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.6 | 36.0 | 28.1 | 30.0 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.7 | 32.6 | 32.8 |
| LNG Exports | 18.2 | 18.9 | 16.1 | 14.23 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.4 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 129.82 | 135.62 | 114.9 | 114.37 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -16.32 | -22.22 | -3.4 | -6.07 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
108.0 HDD
-60.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
123.0 HDD
-27.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
9.0 CDD
+9.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
13.0 CDD
+13.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03 | 23.0 | 25.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/04 | 18.0 | 25.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/05 | 17.0 | 24.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/06 | 14.0 | 24.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/07 | 14.0 | 24.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/08 | 12.0 | 23.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/09 | 10.0 | 23.0 | -13.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | 10.0 | 23.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/12 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/13 | 17.0 | 21.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/14 | 16.0 | 21.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/15 | 15.0 | 21.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/16 | 22.0 | 21.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/17 | 26.0 | 21.0 | +5.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/04 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/05 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/06 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/07 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/08 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/09 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/12 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/13 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/14 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/15 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/16 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/17 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.48
Daily:
0.65 (0.66%)
Weekly:
0.16 (0.16%)
US_10Y
4.21
Daily:
0.07 (1.74%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.5%)
SP500
6775.8
Daily:
-5.68 (-0.08%)
Weekly:
-54.91 (-0.8%)
VIX
24.23
Daily:
-0.7 (-2.81%)
Weekly:
0.48 (2.02%)
GOLD
5154.3
Daily:
-75.4 (-1.44%)
Weekly:
89.0 (1.76%)
COPPER
5.84
Daily:
-0.07 (-1.14%)
Weekly:
0.08 (1.45%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-03
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,606,292
Change: -13,239
Managed Money
-76,252
Change: -377
-4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
18,397
Change: -11,975
1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
165,963
Change: +13,154
10.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-130,170
Change: -7,526
-8.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-03
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,073,033
Change: -29,672
Managed Money
68,385
Change: +685
3.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
178,669
Change: +47,906
8.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-400,996
Change: -53,450
-19.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 16.297 EUR/MWh (-2.051). JKM prices decreased to 15.920 USD/MMBtu (-0.310). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.377 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.297
-2.051Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-11
JKM Prices
15.920
-0.310Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-11
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.377
-2.31%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-11
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
18.0
16.8
15.7
14.6
13.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 16.297 |
| MAY 26 | 15.964 |
| JUN 26 | 15.769 |
| JUL 26 | 15.591 |
| AUG 26 | 15.446 |
| SEP 26 | 15.359 |
| OCT 26 | 15.301 |
| NOV 26 | 15.197 |
| DEC 26 | 15.103 |
| JAN 27 | 15.016 |
| FEB 27 | 14.825 |
| MAR 27 | 13.986 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 15.920 |
| MAY 26 | 17.590 |
| JUN 26 | 17.220 |
| JUL 26 | 16.460 |
| AUG 26 | 15.895 |
| SEP 26 | 15.555 |
| OCT 26 | 15.320 |
| NOV 26 | 15.175 |
| DEC 26 | 15.200 |
| JAN 27 | 15.135 |
| FEB 27 | 14.920 |
| MAR 27 | 13.840 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-10 to 2026-03-10
Latest LNG Flow
18.80
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.60
(+3.3%)
30-Day Average
18.74
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.20
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
29
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | 18.60 | N/A |
| 2026-03-02 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-03 | 18.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-03-04 | 18.40 | -0.40 |
| 2026-03-05 | 18.20 | -0.20 |
| 2026-03-06 | 18.60 | +0.40 |
| 2026-03-07 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-08 | 18.90 | +0.30 |
| 2026-03-09 | 18.20 | -0.70 |
| 2026-03-10 | 18.80 | +0.60 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
201
Last Updated:
2026-03-11 23:47:41
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
CRUDE_OIL
0.8
Top News Topics
Supply (23 articles)
- US natgas futures jump 4% as cooler weather looms, Iran war supply concerns Reuters
- US Natgas Jumps on Global Supply Risks Trading Economics
- US Crude futures up over 2.9% amid Middle East crisis supply disruptions Reuters
- BBG: PRES TRUMP TO INVOKE DEFENSE PRODUCTION ACT TO RESTART OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING FACILITIES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Mace News
- OPEC+ Output Surged in February but Gulf Conflict to Hit March Supply, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shifting Energy Supply Seen as Most Durable Solution to Energy Shock for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- IEA Plan to Release Oil Reserves Could Lower Prices by $7 a Barrel, Goldman Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises as Market Weighs Mixed Messages on Hormuz, IEA Proposes Record Reserves Release — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Mixed as Traders Digest IEA's Proposal to Release Strategic Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil settles up nearly 5% as supply fears mount despite record stocks release plan Reuters
- US oil prices up 5% as Middle East crisis constrains supply Reuters
- Oil Slides Further After G-7 Asks to Ready Plans to Tap Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Fall Amid Developments That Could Help Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Prospect of Added Supply From Oil Reserves Ease Inflation Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Settles Off Highs As G7 Discusses Tapping Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Reports of Saudi Production Shut-Ins Keep Bid in Crude — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Surpass $100 Amid Supply Disruptions Trading Economics
- Middle East Oil Shut-Ins Raise Risk of Lasting Supply Losses — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Surges Above $100 As Gulf Producers Cut Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Unlikely to Structurally Damage Global Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Drag on Oil Supply Could Remain Beyond Middle East Conflict's Duration — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Surpass $110 Amid Supply Disruptions Trading Economics
- US oil prices jump on supply fears amid expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran Reuters
Demand (1 articles)
- Palm Oil Gains Supported by Biofuel Demand Amid Crude Surge — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (23 articles)
- OPEC+ Output Surged in February but Gulf Conflict to Hit March Supply, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Bitcoin Stays Weaker as Iran Conflict Weighs — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Asian Oil, Gas Firms' Downstream Costs Could Rise if Mideast Conflict Persists — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- War Trading Shows 'Policy Reflexivity' — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Could Rise if Middle East Conflict Escalates — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Retreat on Hopes for Quick End to Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Likely to Remain Higher Than Pre-Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Likely to Be Short-Term Event — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sterling Rises After Trump Suggests Middle East Conflict Could Soon End — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Iran Conflict Continues to Cast Uncertainty Over Oil Market — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Asian Policy Tightening Unlikely Unless Oil Prices Remain High — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Puts End to Crude Consolidation — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Keeps Oil Above $100 A Barrel — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Swiss Franc Stays Near Highest Level Since 2015 on Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Rises as Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Unlikely to Structurally Damage Global Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict a Showcase of Difficulty to Control a War — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Rates Markets Price in Hawkish Central Bank Policy on Oil Shock — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Drag on Oil Supply Could Remain Beyond Middle East Conflict's Duration — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Indonesia's Trade Outlook Darkens Amid Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shares slide, oil surges on risk of lengthy Middle East conflict Reuters
- Oil Futures Surge Above $100/bbl Amid Growing Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil soars, shares slide in Asia as Middle East conflict rages Reuters
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.27
Closest Support:
$2.78
14.98% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
21.41% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.21
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-11 23:47:42
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.98%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | $3.18 | $2.69 | $3.67 |
| 2026-03-13 | $3.21 | $2.72 | $3.7 |
| 2026-03-14 | $3.19 | $2.7 | $3.68 |
| 2026-03-15 | $3.2 | $2.71 | $3.69 |
| 2026-03-16 | $3.18 | $2.69 | $3.68 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.98% for the next trading day (2026-03-12), reaching $3.18.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-12 and 2026-03-16.
- The average confidence interval width is ~30.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market presents a neutral technical outlook with a score of -1/5, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. Key Fibonacci support is at 2.78 and resistance at 3.97. The ML price forecast suggests a slight decline of 0.98% with a range between 2.69 and 3.67, indicating potential short-term trading opportunities. Traders should be vigilant for volatility around these levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a fundamental balance of -16.32 BCFD and a change of +5.90, producers should consider adjusting production levels to align with higher heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions. The overall market sentiment remains strong at +0.725, which could support pricing. Producers may want to explore hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price fluctuations driven by geopolitical events and weather patterns.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to high heating demand, especially given the weather outlook indicating significant heating degree days (HDD). The sentiment around natural gas is bearish due to milder weather forecasts, which may affect supply reliability. It's advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies or hedging to manage price risks effectively as the market adjusts to these conditions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market picture reflects a complex interplay of factors. The bullish sentiment in the overall market contrasts with the bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil demand. The fundamental balance indicates tightening supply conditions, particularly in the context of geopolitical risks. Analysts should monitor these dynamics closely, as shifts in sentiment and weather forecasts could lead to significant market outlook changes.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.