Natural gas is trading like a tug-of-war between a comfortable U.S. balance sheet and a suddenly nervous global LNG market. Henry Hub bounced from $2.85 to the $3.24–$3.25 zone, which is now acting as the technical anchor level, even though weather models have softened demand forecasts from roughly 137 Bcf/d toward ~113 Bcf/d over the next couple of weeks. Under the hood the U.S. system is still well supplied with Lower-48 production near 110–112 Bcf/d, gas rigs around 132 (near a 2.5-year high), and storage around ~1.9 Tcf, only about 2% below the five-year average, which normally caps rallies. What is keeping prices supported is the global LNG story: Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, responsible for roughly 20% of global LNG supply, remains offline, while the Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens a route carrying about one-fifth of global LNG trade, pushing European gas toward €50/MWh and tightening the global market. At the same time, U.S. LNG exports are already running near capacity around 19–20 Bcf/d, meaning any global disruption effectively pins export demand at maximum levels and keeps a floor under Henry Hub. If $3.247 holds as support, the market likely starts hunting the next magnet around $3.449, because even with mild weather the combination of near-normal storage, strong LNG demand, and global gas anxiety makes sub-$3 prices increasingly difficult to justify.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-12 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently in a tug-of-war, balancing a well-supplied U.S. market with a jittery global LNG backdrop. Prices have risen from $2.85 to around $3.25, with Henry Hub finding support as mild weather forecasts soften demand. U.S. production remains robust at 110–112 Bcf/d, while storage sits 2% below the five-year average. Global tensions, especially disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz impacting LNG routes, keep prices buoyed. If support at $3.247 holds, we may see a push towards $3.449 as supply fears intensify.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 0.1 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 5.8 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 16.32 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.24
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.08
MA(20): $3.04
Current Price is 3.24, 9 day MA 3.08, 20 day MA 3.04
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1469
Signal: -0.2204
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 49.4
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 49.4 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,438
Avg (20d): 143,830
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 64.67
%D: 53.04
Stochastic %K: 64.67, %D: 53.04. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 15.08
+DI: 30.29
-DI: 17.94
ADX: 15.08 (+DI: 30.29, -DI: 17.94). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -35.33
Williams %R: -35.33 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.28
Middle: 3.04
Lower: 2.8
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.28, Middle: 3.04, Lower: 2.8
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.3 | 107.8 | 106.2 | 103.2 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.2 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.93 |
| Total Supply | 113.5 | 113.4 | 111.5 | 108.3 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.6 | 22.9 | 24.4 | 24.23 |
| Electric Power Demand | 38.6 | 36.0 | 28.1 | 30.0 |
| Residential & Commercial | 35.1 | 42.7 | 32.6 | 32.8 |
| LNG Exports | 18.2 | 18.9 | 16.1 | 14.23 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.4 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 129.82 | 135.62 | 114.9 | 114.37 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -16.32 | -22.22 | -3.4 | -6.07 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
95.0 HDD
-71.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
138.0 HDD
-10.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
10.0 CDD
+10.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
10.0 CDD
+10.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04 | 18.0 | 25.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/05 | 17.0 | 24.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/06 | 14.0 | 24.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/07 | 14.0 | 24.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/08 | 12.0 | 23.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/09 | 10.0 | 23.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/10 | 10.0 | 23.0 | -13.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/13 | 18.0 | 21.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/14 | 17.0 | 21.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/15 | 16.0 | 21.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/16 | 21.0 | 21.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/17 | 26.0 | 21.0 | +5.0 |
| 03/18 | 22.0 | 21.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/05 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/06 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/07 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/08 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/09 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/10 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/13 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/14 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/15 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/16 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/17 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/18 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.79
Daily:
0.56 (0.57%)
Weekly:
0.8 (0.81%)
US_10Y
4.27
Daily:
0.06 (1.54%)
Weekly:
0.14 (3.39%)
SP500
6672.62
Daily:
-103.18 (-1.52%)
Weekly:
-67.4 (-1.0%)
VIX
27.29
Daily:
3.06 (12.63%)
Weekly:
-2.2 (-7.46%)
GOLD
5110.4
Daily:
-57.0 (-1.1%)
Weekly:
-35.7 (-0.69%)
COPPER
5.82
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.44%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.09%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-03
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,606,292
Change: -13,239
Managed Money
-76,252
Change: -377
-4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
18,397
Change: -11,975
1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
165,963
Change: +13,154
10.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-130,170
Change: -7,526
-8.1% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-03
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,073,033
Change: -29,672
Managed Money
68,385
Change: +685
3.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
178,669
Change: +47,906
8.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-400,996
Change: -53,450
-19.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.794 EUR/MWh (+0.497). JKM prices increased to 15.980 USD/MMBtu (+0.060). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.814 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.794
+0.497Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-12
JKM Prices
15.980
+0.060Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-12
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.814
-4.85%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-12
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
18.4
17.4
16.3
15.3
14.2
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 16.794 |
| MAY 26 | 16.745 |
| JUN 26 | 16.570 |
| JUL 26 | 16.392 |
| AUG 26 | 16.276 |
| SEP 26 | 16.179 |
| OCT 26 | 16.150 |
| NOV 26 | 16.067 |
| DEC 26 | 15.980 |
| JAN 27 | 15.896 |
| FEB 27 | 15.632 |
| MAR 27 | 14.716 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 15.980 |
| MAY 26 | 18.095 |
| JUN 26 | 17.875 |
| JUL 26 | 17.235 |
| AUG 26 | 16.655 |
| SEP 26 | 16.410 |
| OCT 26 | 16.175 |
| NOV 26 | 16.085 |
| DEC 26 | 16.085 |
| JAN 27 | 16.035 |
| FEB 27 | 15.745 |
| MAR 27 | 14.580 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-10 to 2026-03-11
Latest LNG Flow
18.80
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.00
(+0.0%)
30-Day Average
18.75
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.20
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | 18.60 | N/A |
| 2026-03-03 | 18.80 | +0.20 |
| 2026-03-04 | 18.40 | -0.40 |
| 2026-03-05 | 18.20 | -0.20 |
| 2026-03-06 | 18.60 | +0.40 |
| 2026-03-07 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-08 | 18.90 | +0.30 |
| 2026-03-09 | 18.20 | -0.70 |
| 2026-03-10 | 18.80 | +0.60 |
| 2026-03-11 | 18.80 | +0.00 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.675
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
233
Last Updated:
2026-03-12 23:47:29
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.65
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (24 articles)
- US natgas futures jump 4% as cooler weather looms, Iran war supply concerns Reuters
- TotalEnergies Restarts Production At Libya's Mabruk Oil Field dpa-AFX
- Pace of Oil Reserves Release Key to Determining Effectiveness — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- LNG Supply Risks From Mideast Conflict Could Be Bigger Concern for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- IEA's Oil Reserve Release Plan Likely Falls Short of Filling Supply Losses — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Crude futures up over 2.9% amid Middle East crisis supply disruptions Reuters
- Oil Futures Gain Despite IEA's Planned Release of Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- BBG: PRES TRUMP TO INVOKE DEFENSE PRODUCTION ACT TO RESTART OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING FACILITIES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Mace News
- IEA Oil Reserves Release Likely Already Priced In — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Little Changed After IEA Confirmed Huge Release of Oil Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Output Surged in February but Gulf Conflict to Hit March Supply, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shifting Energy Supply Seen as Most Durable Solution to Energy Shock for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- IEA Plan to Release Oil Reserves Could Lower Prices by $7 a Barrel, Goldman Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises as Market Weighs Mixed Messages on Hormuz, IEA Proposes Record Reserves Release — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Mixed as Traders Digest IEA's Proposal to Release Strategic Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil settles up nearly 5% as supply fears mount despite record stocks release plan Reuters
- US oil prices up 5% as Middle East crisis constrains supply Reuters
- Oil Slides Further After G-7 Asks to Ready Plans to Tap Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Fall Amid Developments That Could Help Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Prospect of Added Supply From Oil Reserves Ease Inflation Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Settles Off Highs As G7 Discusses Tapping Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Reports of Saudi Production Shut-Ins Keep Bid in Crude — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Surpass $100 Amid Supply Disruptions Trading Economics
- Middle East Oil Shut-Ins Raise Risk of Lasting Supply Losses — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (3 articles)
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Geopolitical (22 articles)
- US natgas futures hit four-week high as Iran conflict drives global energy prices higher Reuters
- US natgas futures rise ahead of storage report as Iran conflict drives demand Reuters
- Dollar Likely to Remain Lifted During Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- China Likely More Exposed to Potential Global Slowdown Than Oil Shock From Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Rises as Middle East Conflict Boosts Oil Prices, Safe Havens — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- High Oil Prices Could Trigger Policy Tightening in Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- LNG Supply Risks From Mideast Conflict Could Be Bigger Concern for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Energy Markets Not Fully Pricing in Disruption Posed by Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise Amid Ongoing Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Output Surged in February but Gulf Conflict to Hit March Supply, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Bitcoin Stays Weaker as Iran Conflict Weighs — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Asian Oil, Gas Firms' Downstream Costs Could Rise if Mideast Conflict Persists — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- War Trading Shows 'Policy Reflexivity' — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Could Rise if Middle East Conflict Escalates — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Retreat on Hopes for Quick End to Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Likely to Remain Higher Than Pre-Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Likely to Be Short-Term Event — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sterling Rises After Trump Suggests Middle East Conflict Could Soon End — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Iran Conflict Continues to Cast Uncertainty Over Oil Market — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Asian Policy Tightening Unlikely Unless Oil Prices Remain High — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Puts End to Crude Consolidation — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Keeps Oil Above $100 A Barrel — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (4 articles)
- US natgas futures slip 3% on milder weather forecast, drop in global energy prices Reuters
- US natgas futures slip 2% on milder weather forecast, drop in global energy prices Reuters
- US natgas futures jump 4% as cooler weather looms, Iran war supply concerns Reuters
- Goldman Lifts Fourth-Quarter Oil-Price Forecast on Hormuz Disruption — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.24
Closest Support:
$2.78
14.2% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
22.53% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.23
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-12 23:47:30
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.87%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | $3.26 | $2.8 | $3.72 |
| 2026-03-14 | $3.25 | $2.79 | $3.71 |
| 2026-03-15 | $3.25 | $2.79 | $3.71 |
| 2026-03-16 | $3.24 | $2.78 | $3.7 |
| 2026-03-17 | $3.24 | $2.78 | $3.7 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.87% for the next trading day (2026-03-13), reaching $3.26.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-13 and 2026-03-17.
- The average confidence interval width is ~28.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions present a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.78 while resistance is noted at 3.97. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential breakout opportunities.
The ML price forecast indicates an expected increase of 0.87%, suggesting a short-term upward trend within the range of 2.8 to 3.72. However, the fundamental balance shows a deficit of -16.32 BCFD, which could introduce volatility in pricing. Traders should be prepared for potential fluctuations around these indicators.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market sentiment of +0.675, along with the fundamental balance deficit, indicates that producers may need to adjust their production planning and hedging strategies accordingly. The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Mideast, are driving demand and could affect supply stability.
Producers should consider the implications of high heating demand due to the weather outlook, especially in regions like the Northeast and Midwest, where heating degree days (HDD) are significantly elevated. This could lead to increased natural gas demand, impacting pricing and production strategies.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the anticipated high heating demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply situation, which may lead to higher prices in the near term.
Utilities should closely monitor the supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and changing weather patterns. The ML forecast suggests a slight increase in prices, which may prompt consumers to review their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to mitigate cost impacts.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish sentiment and underlying bearish fundamentals. The fundamental balance deficit of -16.32 BCFD alongside a market sentiment score of +0.675 indicates potential upward pressure on prices.
Analysts should focus on the implications of the weather outlook, particularly the high heating demand across various regions, which could lead to shifts in consumption patterns. The convergence of these factors suggests a complex market landscape that may require adaptive strategies moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.