Natural gas is trading like a tug-of-war between a comfortable U.S. balance sheet and a suddenly nervous global LNG market. Henry Hub bounced from $2.85 to the $3.24–$3.25 zone, which is now acting as the technical anchor level, even though weather models have softened demand forecasts from roughly 137 Bcf/d toward ~113 Bcf/d over the next couple of weeks. Under the hood the U.S. system is still well supplied with Lower-48 production near 110–112 Bcf/d, gas rigs around 132 (near a 2.5-year high), and storage around ~1.9 Tcf, only about 2% below the five-year average, which normally caps rallies. What is keeping prices supported is the global LNG story: Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, responsible for roughly 20% of global LNG supply, remains offline, while the Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens a route carrying about one-fifth of global LNG trade, pushing European gas toward €50/MWh and tightening the global market. At the same time, U.S. LNG exports are already running near capacity around 19–20 Bcf/d, meaning any global disruption effectively pins export demand at maximum levels and keeps a floor under Henry Hub. If $3.247 holds as support, the market likely starts hunting the next magnet around $3.449, because even with mild weather the combination of near-normal storage, strong LNG demand, and global gas anxiety makes sub-$3 prices increasingly difficult to justify.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-13 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between a comfortable U.S. supply and an anxious global LNG market. Henry Hub has bounced from $2.85 to around $3.25, supported by robust U.S. production (110-112 Bcf/d) and near-normal storage levels (~1.9 Tcf). However, softening demand forecasts due to mild weather and disruptions in global LNG supply (especially from Qatar) pose challenges. If $3.25 holds, we may target $3.45, but the balance remains delicate amid fluctuating global demand dynamics.
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**Key Developments & Statistics:**
- Henry Hub: $3.24, with a support level around $3.247.
- U.S.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.4 BCFD | Total demand increased by 1.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 18.42 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.13
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.1
MA(20): $3.04
Current Price is 3.13, 9 day MA 3.1, 20 day MA 3.04
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1344
Signal: -0.2033
Days since crossover: 9
MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 47.0
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 47.0 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 122,530
Avg (20d): 146,228
Ratio: 0.84
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 49.65
%D: 57.9
Stochastic %K: 49.65, %D: 57.9. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 15.84
+DI: 28.91
-DI: 17.52
ADX: 15.84 (+DI: 28.91, -DI: 17.52). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -50.35
Williams %R: -50.35 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.27
Middle: 3.04
Lower: 2.8
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.27, Middle: 3.04, Lower: 2.8
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.4 | 109.3 | 105.5 | 102.7 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.7 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 4.47 |
| Total Supply | 113.1 | 113.5 | 110.7 | 107.2 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.9 | 22.6 | 24.0 | 23.87 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.9 | 38.6 | 27.8 | 29.3 |
| Residential & Commercial | 42.0 | 35.1 | 29.2 | 29.17 |
| LNG Exports | 19.3 | 18.2 | 15.8 | 14.13 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.3 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 131.52 | 129.82 | 110.0 | 109.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -18.42 | -16.32 | 0.7 | -2.57 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
88.0 HDD
-76.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
137.0 HDD
-9.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
11.0 CDD
+11.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
12.0 CDD
+12.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05 | 17.0 | 24.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/06 | 14.0 | 24.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/07 | 14.0 | 24.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/08 | 12.0 | 23.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/09 | 10.0 | 23.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/10 | 10.0 | 23.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/11 | 11.0 | 23.0 | -12.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/13 | 18.0 | 21.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/14 | 17.0 | 21.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/15 | 15.0 | 21.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/16 | 20.0 | 21.0 | -1.0 |
| 03/17 | 27.0 | 21.0 | +6.0 |
| 03/18 | 23.0 | 21.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/19 | 17.0 | 20.0 | -3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/06 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/07 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/08 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/09 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/10 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/11 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/13 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/14 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/15 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/16 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/17 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/18 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/19 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.5
Daily:
0.76 (0.76%)
Weekly:
1.32 (1.33%)
US_10Y
4.28
Daily:
0.01 (0.28%)
Weekly:
0.15 (3.6%)
SP500
6632.19
Daily:
-40.43 (-0.61%)
Weekly:
-163.8 (-2.41%)
VIX
27.19
Daily:
-0.1 (-0.37%)
Weekly:
1.69 (6.63%)
GOLD
5023.1
Daily:
-92.7 (-1.81%)
Weekly:
-68.4 (-1.34%)
COPPER
5.68
Daily:
-0.15 (-2.57%)
Weekly:
-0.13 (-2.16%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-10
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,565,341
Change: -40,951
Managed Money
-62,982
Change: +13,270
-4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
8,300
Change: -10,097
0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
155,872
Change: -10,091
10.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-123,874
Change: +6,296
-7.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-10
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,051,321
Change: -21,712
Managed Money
92,122
Change: +23,737
4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
212,558
Change: +33,889
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-489,005
Change: -88,009
-23.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.923 EUR/MWh (+0.129). JKM prices increased to 16.090 USD/MMBtu (+0.110). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.833 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.923
+0.129Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-13
JKM Prices
16.090
+0.110Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-13
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.833
-4.92%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-13
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
18.7
17.7
16.7
15.7
14.6
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 16.923 |
| MAY 26 | 17.031 |
| JUN 26 | 16.908 |
| JUL 26 | 16.766 |
| AUG 26 | 16.699 |
| SEP 26 | 16.619 |
| OCT 26 | 16.572 |
| NOV 26 | 16.489 |
| DEC 26 | 16.423 |
| JAN 27 | 16.345 |
| FEB 27 | 16.116 |
| MAR 27 | 15.146 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 16.090 |
| MAY 26 | 18.340 |
| JUN 26 | 18.155 |
| JUL 26 | 17.705 |
| AUG 26 | 17.185 |
| SEP 26 | 16.875 |
| OCT 26 | 16.590 |
| NOV 26 | 16.505 |
| DEC 26 | 16.560 |
| JAN 27 | 16.495 |
| FEB 27 | 16.265 |
| MAR 27 | 14.980 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-11 to 2026-03-12
Latest LNG Flow
19.30
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.50
(+2.7%)
30-Day Average
18.78
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.30
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | 18.80 | N/A |
| 2026-03-04 | 18.40 | -0.40 |
| 2026-03-05 | 18.20 | -0.20 |
| 2026-03-06 | 18.60 | +0.40 |
| 2026-03-07 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-08 | 18.90 | +0.30 |
| 2026-03-09 | 18.20 | -0.70 |
| 2026-03-10 | 18.80 | +0.60 |
| 2026-03-11 | 18.80 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | 19.30 | +0.50 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.05
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
223
Last Updated:
2026-03-13 23:48:11
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (18 articles)
- TotalEnergies Restarts Production At Libya's Mabruk Oil Field dpa-AFX
- IEA Oil Reserves Release Faces Limits on Timing, Product Mix — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Pace of Oil Reserves Release Key to Determining Effectiveness — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- LNG Supply Risks From Mideast Conflict Could Be Bigger Concern for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- IEA's Oil Reserve Release Plan Likely Falls Short of Filling Supply Losses — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Crude futures up over 2.9% amid Middle East crisis supply disruptions Reuters
- Oil Futures Gain Despite IEA's Planned Release of Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- BBG: PRES TRUMP TO INVOKE DEFENSE PRODUCTION ACT TO RESTART OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING FACILITIES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Mace News
- IEA Oil Reserves Release Likely Already Priced In — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Little Changed After IEA Confirmed Huge Release of Oil Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Output Surged in February but Gulf Conflict to Hit March Supply, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shifting Energy Supply Seen as Most Durable Solution to Energy Shock for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- IEA Plan to Release Oil Reserves Could Lower Prices by $7 a Barrel, Goldman Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises as Market Weighs Mixed Messages on Hormuz, IEA Proposes Record Reserves Release — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Mixed as Traders Digest IEA's Proposal to Release Strategic Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil settles up nearly 5% as supply fears mount despite record stocks release plan Reuters
- US oil prices up 5% as Middle East crisis constrains supply Reuters
- Oil Slides Further After G-7 Asks to Ready Plans to Tap Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (5 articles)
- US natural gas futures slide 3% as mild March curbs demand Reuters
- US natural gas futures dip 1% as mild March curbs demand Reuters
- US natgas futures rise ahead of storage report as Iran conflict drives demand Reuters
- Canadian Exports, Wholesale Trade Cast Doubt on GDP Flash Estimate — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Palm Oil Gains Supported by Biofuel Demand Amid Crude Surge — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Geopolitical (25 articles)
- US natgas futures hit four-week high as Iran conflict drives global energy prices higher Reuters
- US natgas futures rise ahead of storage report as Iran conflict drives demand Reuters
- Stocks slip, dollar strong as Iran conflict pushes oil prices higher Reuters
- Stocks mixed, dollar up as Iran conflict keeps oil prices high Reuters
- Stocks rise on lower oil prices, though Iran conflict clouds outlook Reuters
- Oil Prices Continue to Rise, US Eases Russian Oil Sanctions Trading Economics
- Japan Has to Be More Cautious About Economic Impact of Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Could Rise Further Even if Middle East Conflict Eases — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Likely to Remain Lifted During Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- China Likely More Exposed to Potential Global Slowdown Than Oil Shock From Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Rises as Middle East Conflict Boosts Oil Prices, Safe Havens — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- High Oil Prices Could Trigger Policy Tightening in Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- LNG Supply Risks From Mideast Conflict Could Be Bigger Concern for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Energy Markets Not Fully Pricing in Disruption Posed by Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise Amid Ongoing Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Output Surged in February but Gulf Conflict to Hit March Supply, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Bitcoin Stays Weaker as Iran Conflict Weighs — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Asian Oil, Gas Firms' Downstream Costs Could Rise if Mideast Conflict Persists — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- War Trading Shows 'Policy Reflexivity' — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Could Rise if Middle East Conflict Escalates — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Retreat on Hopes for Quick End to Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Likely to Remain Higher Than Pre-Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Likely to Be Short-Term Event — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sterling Rises After Trump Suggests Middle East Conflict Could Soon End — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Iran Conflict Continues to Cast Uncertainty Over Oil Market — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (4 articles)
- Nat-Gas Sink on Above-Normal US Weather Forecasts Barchart
- US natgas futures slip 3% on milder weather forecast, drop in global energy prices Reuters
- US natgas futures slip 2% on milder weather forecast, drop in global energy prices Reuters
- Goldman Lifts Fourth-Quarter Oil-Price Forecast on Hormuz Disruption — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.13
Closest Support:
$2.78
11.18% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
26.84% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.13
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-13 23:48:11
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.06%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | $3.13 | $2.91 | $3.35 |
| 2026-03-15 | $3.11 | $2.9 | $3.33 |
| 2026-03-16 | $3.12 | $2.9 | $3.33 |
| 2026-03-17 | $3.11 | $2.9 | $3.33 |
| 2026-03-18 | $3.12 | $2.9 | $3.34 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.06% for the next trading day (2026-03-14), reaching $3.13.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-14 and 2026-03-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market shows a neutral technical interpretation with a score of -1/5, indicating limited directional momentum. Key Fibonacci support is at 2.78 and resistance at 3.97, suggesting potential price fluctuations within this range. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.06%, with a range of 2.91 to 3.35. Traders should remain vigilant for short-term opportunities or risks, especially given the moderate heating demand and the fundamental balance of -18.42 BCFD, which could influence volatility.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the fundamental balance showing a deficit of -18.42 BCFD, producers may need to adjust their production strategies to meet demand fluctuations. The neutral sentiment in the market, particularly for natural gas (-0.600), poses challenges for pricing and sales forecasts. Additionally, the recent news regarding supply disruptions and production restarts, such as the TotalEnergies' restart in Libya, indicates potential shifts in supply dynamics that could impact hedging strategies.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the moderate heating demand and the fundamental balance indicating a supply shortfall. The neutral sentiment surrounding natural gas (-0.600) suggests that procurement strategies may need reevaluation to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices. With the ML price forecast indicating a slight decline, consumers should consider timing their purchases to capitalize on lower prices while remaining aware of supply reliability risks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a neutral sentiment overall, with fundamental balance reflecting a bearish outlook due to the -18.42 BCFD figure. Key driving factors include the weather outlook favoring heating demand, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, contrasted by cooling demand in the West. The bearish sentiment in natural gas and the bullish sentiment in crude oil (+0.750) suggest that analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and their impacts on supply and demand dynamics for a potential outlook shift.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.