Natural gas is trading like a tug-of-war between a comfortable U.S. balance sheet and a suddenly nervous global LNG market. Henry Hub bounced from $2.85 to the $3.24–$3.25 zone, which is now acting as the technical anchor level, even though weather models have softened demand forecasts from roughly 137 Bcf/d toward ~113 Bcf/d over the next couple of weeks. Under the hood the U.S. system is still well supplied with Lower-48 production near 110–112 Bcf/d, gas rigs around 132 (near a 2.5-year high), and storage around ~1.9 Tcf, only about 2% below the five-year average, which normally caps rallies. What is keeping prices supported is the global LNG story: Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, responsible for roughly 20% of global LNG supply, remains offline, while the Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens a route carrying about one-fifth of global LNG trade, pushing European gas toward €50/MWh and tightening the global market. At the same time, U.S. LNG exports are already running near capacity around 19–20 Bcf/d, meaning any global disruption effectively pins export demand at maximum levels and keeps a floor under Henry Hub. If $3.247 holds as support, the market likely starts hunting the next magnet around $3.449, because even with mild weather the combination of near-normal storage, strong LNG demand, and global gas anxiety makes sub-$3 prices increasingly difficult to justify.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-15 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently in a tug-of-war, with U.S. supply remaining robust while global LNG concerns bubble. Henry Hub recently bounced from $2.85 to around $3.25, supported by production levels near 110-112 Bcf/d and storage just 2% below the five-year average. However, softened demand forecasts and milder weather have pushed prices down. Global factors, especially disruptions affecting LNG routes, keep prices from falling too low, making it hard to justify sub-$3 levels. Watch for $3.247 as a key support level!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.4 BCFD | Total demand increased by 1.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 18.42 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.11
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.1
MA(20): $3.03
Current Price is 3.11, 9 day MA 3.1, 20 day MA 3.03
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1247
Signal: -0.1876
Days since crossover: 10
MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.41
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.41 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 6,325
Avg (20d): 141,633
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 46.04
%D: 53.08
Stochastic %K: 46.04, %D: 53.08. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 16.27
+DI: 28.12
-DI: 18.01
ADX: 16.27 (+DI: 28.12, -DI: 18.01). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -53.96
Williams %R: -53.96 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.24
Middle: 3.03
Lower: 2.81
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.24, Middle: 3.03, Lower: 2.81
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.4 | 109.3 | 105.5 | 102.7 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.7 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 4.47 |
| Total Supply | 113.1 | 113.5 | 110.7 | 107.2 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.9 | 22.6 | 24.0 | 23.87 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.9 | 38.6 | 27.8 | 29.3 |
| Residential & Commercial | 42.0 | 35.1 | 29.2 | 29.17 |
| LNG Exports | 19.3 | 18.2 | 15.8 | 14.13 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.3 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 131.52 | 129.82 | 110.0 | 109.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -18.42 | -16.32 | 0.7 | -2.57 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
95.0 HDD
-64.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
123.0 HDD
-21.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
10.0 CDD
+10.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
15.0 CDD
+15.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | 14.0 | 24.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/08 | 12.0 | 23.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/09 | 10.0 | 23.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/10 | 10.0 | 23.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/11 | 11.0 | 23.0 | -12.0 |
| 03/12 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/13 | 20.0 | 21.0 | -1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/15 | 15.0 | 21.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/16 | 21.0 | 21.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/17 | 27.0 | 21.0 | +6.0 |
| 03/18 | 22.0 | 21.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/19 | 15.0 | 20.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/20 | 12.0 | 20.0 | -8.0 |
| 03/21 | 11.0 | 20.0 | -9.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/08 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/09 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/10 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/11 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/12 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/13 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/15 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/16 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/17 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/18 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/19 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/20 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/21 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-10
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,565,341
Change: -40,951
Managed Money
-62,982
Change: +13,270
-4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
8,300
Change: -10,097
0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
155,872
Change: -10,091
10.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-123,874
Change: +6,296
-7.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-10
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,051,321
Change: -21,712
Managed Money
92,122
Change: +23,737
4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
212,558
Change: +33,889
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-489,005
Change: -88,009
-23.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 16.725 EUR/MWh (-0.198). JKM prices increased to 16.185 USD/MMBtu (+0.095). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.540 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.725
-0.198Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-15
JKM Prices
16.185
+0.095Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-15
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.540
-3.23%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-15
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
18.6
17.6
16.6
15.5
14.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 16.725 |
| MAY 26 | 16.696 |
| JUN 26 | 16.608 |
| JUL 26 | 16.488 |
| AUG 26 | 16.428 |
| SEP 26 | 16.368 |
| OCT 26 | 16.301 |
| NOV 26 | 16.232 |
| DEC 26 | 16.178 |
| JAN 27 | 16.035 |
| FEB 27 | 15.776 |
| MAR 27 | 14.866 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 16.185 |
| MAY 26 | 18.295 |
| JUN 26 | 18.095 |
| JUL 26 | 17.625 |
| AUG 26 | 17.115 |
| SEP 26 | 16.815 |
| OCT 26 | 16.500 |
| NOV 26 | 16.405 |
| DEC 26 | 16.535 |
| JAN 27 | 16.365 |
| FEB 27 | 16.095 |
| MAR 27 | 14.855 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-13 to 2026-03-14
Latest LNG Flow
19.10
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.20
(-1.0%)
30-Day Average
18.81
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.30
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | 18.20 | N/A |
| 2026-03-06 | 18.60 | +0.40 |
| 2026-03-07 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-08 | 18.90 | +0.30 |
| 2026-03-09 | 18.20 | -0.70 |
| 2026-03-10 | 18.80 | +0.60 |
| 2026-03-11 | 18.80 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | 19.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-03-13 | 19.30 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-14 | 19.10 | -0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.1
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
122
Last Updated:
2026-03-15 23:47:33
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
NATURAL_GAS
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- TotalEnergies Restarts Production At Libya's Mabruk Oil Field dpa-AFX
- IEA Oil Reserves Release Faces Limits on Timing, Product Mix — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Pace of Oil Reserves Release Key to Determining Effectiveness — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- LNG Supply Risks From Mideast Conflict Could Be Bigger Concern for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (4 articles)
- Canadian Exports, Wholesale Trade Cast Doubt on GDP Flash Estimate — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natural gas futures slide 3% as mild March curbs demand Reuters
- US natural gas futures dip 1% as mild March curbs demand Reuters
- US natgas futures rise ahead of storage report as Iran conflict drives demand Reuters
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Geopolitical (15 articles)
- Oil poised for further gains as Middle East conflict threatens export facilities Reuters
- Stocks slip, dollar strong as Iran conflict pushes oil prices higher Reuters
- Stocks mixed, dollar up as Iran conflict keeps oil prices high Reuters
- Stocks rise on lower oil prices, though Iran conflict clouds outlook Reuters
- Temporary Easing of Russian Oil Sanctions Unlikely to Ease Price Pressure — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Continue to Rise, US Eases Russian Oil Sanctions Trading Economics
- Japan Has to Be More Cautious About Economic Impact of Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Could Rise Further Even if Middle East Conflict Eases — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Likely to Remain Lifted During Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- China Likely More Exposed to Potential Global Slowdown Than Oil Shock From Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Rises as Middle East Conflict Boosts Oil Prices, Safe Havens — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- High Oil Prices Could Trigger Policy Tightening in Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- LNG Supply Risks From Mideast Conflict Could Be Bigger Concern for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natgas futures hit four-week high as Iran conflict drives global energy prices higher Reuters
- US natgas futures rise ahead of storage report as Iran conflict drives demand Reuters
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.11
Closest Support:
$2.78
10.61% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
27.65% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.13
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-15 23:47:33
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.06%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | $3.13 | $2.91 | $3.35 |
| 2026-03-15 | $3.11 | $2.9 | $3.33 |
| 2026-03-16 | $3.12 | $2.9 | $3.33 |
| 2026-03-17 | $3.11 | $2.9 | $3.33 |
| 2026-03-18 | $3.12 | $2.9 | $3.34 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.06% for the next trading day (2026-03-14), reaching $3.13.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-14 and 2026-03-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions reflect a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.78, while resistance is at 3.97. Traders should be cautious as the fundamental balance shows a negative trend at -18.42 BCFD with a change of -2.10, indicating potential volatility. The ML price forecast suggests a slight decline of 0.06%, with a trading range between 2.91 and 3.35. Look for short-term opportunities, but be aware of the risks associated with the current demand dynamics and weather impacts.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the negative fundamental balance of -18.42 BCFD when planning production levels. The market sentiment remains neutral, but the negative sentiment for natural gas (-0.400) could impact pricing strategies. The current weather forecast indicates moderate heating demand in residential and commercial sectors, which may provide some support for production. Producers might want to implement hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines, especially given the geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil prices.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the negative fundamental balance of -18.42 BCFD. The moderate heating demand forecast suggests stable supply for heating needs, but low cooling demand may lead to reduced gas prices. The market sentiment is neutral, and consumers should consider procurement strategies that account for possible supply reliability risks amid changing demand patterns and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment with a technical outlook suggesting potential price resistance at 3.97. The fundamental balance of -18.42 BCFD indicates a bearish trend in natural gas supply, while the geopolitical landscape surrounding crude oil remains a bullish factor. Analysts should closely monitor the implications of weather forecasts on heating demand and adjust outlooks accordingly, as the current ML predictions indicate a slight downward trend in prices.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.