Natural gas is trading like a tug-of-war between a comfortable U.S. balance sheet and a suddenly nervous global LNG market. Henry Hub bounced from $2.85 to the $3.24–$3.25 zone, which is now acting as the technical anchor level, even though weather models have softened demand forecasts from roughly 137 Bcf/d toward ~113 Bcf/d over the next couple of weeks. Under the hood the U.S. system is still well supplied with Lower-48 production near 110–112 Bcf/d, gas rigs around 132 (near a 2.5-year high), and storage around ~1.9 Tcf, only about 2% below the five-year average, which normally caps rallies. What is keeping prices supported is the global LNG story: Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, responsible for roughly 20% of global LNG supply, remains offline, while the Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens a route carrying about one-fifth of global LNG trade, pushing European gas toward €50/MWh and tightening the global market. At the same time, U.S. LNG exports are already running near capacity around 19–20 Bcf/d, meaning any global disruption effectively pins export demand at maximum levels and keeps a floor under Henry Hub. If $3.247 holds as support, the market likely starts hunting the next magnet around $3.449, because even with mild weather the combination of near-normal storage, strong LNG demand, and global gas anxiety makes sub-$3 prices increasingly difficult to justify.
* Monday trading led us back down to test the $3 level - this breaks the trend on the upward channel to 3.247 but is backed as demand is faltering as soft spring demand is here and traders are now thinking that we may be done with winter. On supply-demand balance we are not ‘that weak’ in my humble opinion. Technicals point to 2.762 while Fundamentals show support to 3.449.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-16 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently caught in a tug-of-war between a well-supplied U.S. market and rising global LNG demand. Henry Hub prices have bounced from $2.85 to $3.25, although recent softening in demand forecasts has tempered enthusiasm. U.S. production remains robust at 110-112 Bcf/d, with storage levels near the five-year average. However, disruptions in global LNG supply, particularly from Qatar and the Strait of Hormuz, are keeping prices buoyed. If $3.247 holds, the market could target $3.449, but watch for demand fluctuations as we transition into spring!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.4 BCFD | Total demand increased by 1.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 18.42 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$3.02
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.09
MA(20): $3.02
Current Price is 3.02, 9 day MA 3.09, 20 day MA 3.02
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1316
Signal: -0.189
Days since crossover: 10
MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 44.55
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 44.55 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,776
Avg (20d): 141,406
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 33.94
%D: 49.05
Stochastic %K: 33.94, %D: 49.05. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 16.03
+DI: 28.1
-DI: 19.28
ADX: 16.03 (+DI: 28.1, -DI: 19.28). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -66.06
Williams %R: -66.06 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.24
Middle: 3.02
Lower: 2.81
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.24, Middle: 3.02, Lower: 2.81
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.4 | 109.3 | 105.5 | 102.7 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.7 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 4.47 |
| Total Supply | 113.1 | 113.5 | 110.7 | 107.2 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.9 | 22.6 | 24.0 | 23.87 |
| Electric Power Demand | 30.9 | 38.6 | 27.8 | 29.3 |
| Residential & Commercial | 42.0 | 35.1 | 29.2 | 29.17 |
| LNG Exports | 19.3 | 18.2 | 15.8 | 14.13 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.3 | 7.37 |
| Total Demand | 131.52 | 129.82 | 110.0 | 109.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -18.42 | -16.32 | 0.7 | -2.57 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
99.0 HDD
-57.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
119.0 HDD
-24.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
9.0 CDD
+9.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
15.0 CDD
+15.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | 12.0 | 23.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/09 | 10.0 | 23.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/10 | 10.0 | 23.0 | -13.0 |
| 03/11 | 11.0 | 23.0 | -12.0 |
| 03/12 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/13 | 20.0 | 21.0 | -1.0 |
| 03/14 | 18.0 | 21.0 | -3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/16 | 20.0 | 21.0 | -1.0 |
| 03/17 | 27.0 | 21.0 | +6.0 |
| 03/18 | 22.0 | 21.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/19 | 15.0 | 20.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/20 | 12.0 | 20.0 | -8.0 |
| 03/21 | 10.0 | 20.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/22 | 13.0 | 20.0 | -7.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/09 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/10 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/11 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/12 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/13 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/14 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/16 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/17 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/18 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/19 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/20 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/21 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/22 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-10
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,565,341
Change: -40,951
Managed Money
-62,982
Change: +13,270
-4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
8,300
Change: -10,097
0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
155,872
Change: -10,091
10.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-123,874
Change: +6,296
-7.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-10
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,051,321
Change: -21,712
Managed Money
92,122
Change: +23,737
4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
212,558
Change: +33,889
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-489,005
Change: -88,009
-23.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 16.725 EUR/MWh (-0.198). JKM prices increased to 16.185 USD/MMBtu (+0.095). JKM is trading at a discount of 0.540 to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.725
-0.198Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-16
JKM Prices
16.185
+0.095Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-16
JKM-TTF Spread
-0.540
-3.23%JKM is trading at a discount to TTF, suggesting weaker Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-16
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
18.6
17.6
16.6
15.5
14.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 16.725 |
| MAY 26 | 16.696 |
| JUN 26 | 16.608 |
| JUL 26 | 16.488 |
| AUG 26 | 16.428 |
| SEP 26 | 16.368 |
| OCT 26 | 16.301 |
| NOV 26 | 16.232 |
| DEC 26 | 16.178 |
| JAN 27 | 16.035 |
| FEB 27 | 15.776 |
| MAR 27 | 14.866 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 16.185 |
| MAY 26 | 18.295 |
| JUN 26 | 18.095 |
| JUL 26 | 17.625 |
| AUG 26 | 17.115 |
| SEP 26 | 16.815 |
| OCT 26 | 16.500 |
| NOV 26 | 16.405 |
| DEC 26 | 16.535 |
| JAN 27 | 16.365 |
| FEB 27 | 16.095 |
| MAR 27 | 14.855 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-14 to 2026-03-15
Latest LNG Flow
19.20
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.10
(+0.5%)
30-Day Average
18.84
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.30
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | 18.60 | N/A |
| 2026-03-07 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-08 | 18.90 | +0.30 |
| 2026-03-09 | 18.20 | -0.70 |
| 2026-03-10 | 18.80 | +0.60 |
| 2026-03-11 | 18.80 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | 19.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-03-13 | 19.30 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-14 | 19.10 | -0.20 |
| 2026-03-15 | 19.20 | +0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
-0.033
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
95
Last Updated:
2026-03-16 23:47:54
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (8 articles)
- Oil gains over 2% as market weighs Iran war supply risks Reuters
- Oil Rises on Lingering Supply Concerns Trading Economics
- Energy Supply Uncertainty Will Likely Keep Euro Weak Versus Dollar — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Energy Prices Set to Remain High Amid Longer Supply Disruption — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise on Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Turn Higher as Supply Worries Remain — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natural gas futures slide 3% as output climbs, demand wanes Reuters
- US natural gas futures dip 1% as output climbs, demand wanes Reuters
Demand (6 articles)
- Japan Exports Likely Slowed; Mideast Crisis Poses Trade Balance Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Waiver for Russian Oil Unlikely to Spur New Demand — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natural gas futures slide 3% as output climbs, demand wanes Reuters
- US natural gas futures dip 1% as output climbs, demand wanes Reuters
- US natural gas futures slide 3% as mild March curbs demand Reuters
- US natural gas futures dip 1% as mild March curbs demand Reuters
Geopolitical (7 articles)
- Oil poised for further gains as Middle East conflict threatens export facilities Reuters
- Stocks slip, dollar strong as Iran conflict pushes oil prices higher Reuters
- Oil Posts Weekly Gains As Middle East Conflict Drags On — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Stocks mixed, dollar up as Iran conflict keeps oil prices high Reuters
- Stocks rise on lower oil prices, though Iran conflict clouds outlook Reuters
- Temporary Easing of Russian Oil Sanctions Unlikely to Ease Price Pressure — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Continue to Rise, US Eases Russian Oil Sanctions Trading Economics
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.02
Closest Support:
$2.78
7.95% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
31.46% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.13
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-16 23:47:55
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.06%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | $3.13 | $2.91 | $3.35 |
| 2026-03-15 | $3.11 | $2.9 | $3.33 |
| 2026-03-16 | $3.12 | $2.9 | $3.33 |
| 2026-03-17 | $3.11 | $2.9 | $3.33 |
| 2026-03-18 | $3.12 | $2.9 | $3.34 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.06% for the next trading day (2026-03-14), reaching $3.13.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-14 and 2026-03-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.78 and a resistance level at 3.97. The ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 0.06%, with a range between 2.91 and 3.35. Given the fundamental balance of -18.42 BCFD, traders should prepare for potential volatility and consider short-term opportunities or risks linked to this bearish outlook.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market sentiment for natural gas is negative, with a sentiment score of -0.700, indicating potential challenges in demand. Producers should assess their production planning and consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices. The high heating demand expected in the Northeast and Midwest may provide localized opportunities, but overall declining demand trends necessitate cautious operational adjustments.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the forecasted high heating demand and low cooling demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas. The bearish trend in the market, combined with a fundamental balance indicating declining demand, may signal a need for strategic procurement approaches. Monitoring the supply reliability risks is crucial as market conditions evolve, especially given the sentiment around natural gas is currently negative.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently facing a bearish outlook, driven by a negative fundamental balance and declining demand for natural gas. The weather outlook indicates high heating demand, particularly in northern regions, while overall sentiment remains neutral. Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical factors affecting crude oil and monitor the ongoing developments that could shift the market sentiment towards a more bullish stance in the future.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.