Natural gas is trading like a tug-of-war between a comfortable U.S. balance sheet and a suddenly nervous global LNG market. Henry Hub bounced from $2.85 to the $3.24–$3.25 zone, which is now acting as the technical anchor level, even though weather models have softened demand forecasts from roughly 137 Bcf/d toward ~113 Bcf/d over the next couple of weeks. Under the hood the U.S. system is still well supplied with Lower-48 production near 110–112 Bcf/d, gas rigs around 132 (near a 2.5-year high), and storage around ~1.9 Tcf, only about 2% below the five-year average, which normally caps rallies. What is keeping prices supported is the global LNG story: Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, responsible for roughly 20% of global LNG supply, remains offline, while the Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens a route carrying about one-fifth of global LNG trade, pushing European gas toward €50/MWh and tightening the global market. At the same time, U.S. LNG exports are already running near capacity around 19–20 Bcf/d, meaning any global disruption effectively pins export demand at maximum levels and keeps a floor under Henry Hub. If $3.247 holds as support, the market likely starts hunting the next magnet around $3.449, because even with mild weather the combination of near-normal storage, strong LNG demand, and global gas anxiety makes sub-$3 prices increasingly difficult to justify.
* Monday trading led us back down to test the $3 level - this breaks the trend on the upward channel to 3.247 but is backed as demand is faltering as soft spring demand is here and traders are now thinking that we may be done with winter. On supply-demand balance we are not ‘that weak’ in my humble opinion. Technicals point to 2.762 while Fundamentals show support to 3.449.
* Natty brought us another consolidation for Nat Gas - still sitting above $3 so that is the line in the sand for the bulls to retain control - if that goes - then we drop to 2.762 but 3.449 seems to be calling.
* Nat Gas went back up to the key 3.127 while testing some early AM periods below $3. IMHO - $3 is way too low and we should be back on the way to $3.449.
* Nat Gas tried once again to bust over 3.247 (this is the key resistance point) - storage is only marginally above the 5 year average….but we are entering the doldrums of the spring time trading. IMHO - 3.449 is in the cards but will need to move above 3.247 first.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-19 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices have recently bounced between $2.85 and $3.25, reflecting a tug-of-war between a well-supplied U.S. market and global LNG anxieties. Despite forecasts softening demand to ~113 Bcf/d, U.S. production remains robust at 110–112 Bcf/d, with storage levels marginally below the five-year average. The situation is further complicated by geopolitical tensions, notably Iran's attacks affecting global LNG supply. If prices hold above $3.24, the market may aim for $3.45; however, a dip below could signal a retreat to $2.76.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand increased by 8.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 25.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.12
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.11
MA(20): $3.03
Current Price is 3.12, 9 day MA 3.11, 20 day MA 3.03
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1073
Signal: -0.1534
Days since crossover: 13
MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 47.38
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 47.38 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,909
Avg (20d): 136,706
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 39.87
%D: 37.43
Stochastic %K: 39.87, %D: 37.43. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 16.87
+DI: 27.3
-DI: 17.34
ADX: 16.87 (+DI: 27.3, -DI: 17.34). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -60.13
Williams %R: -60.13 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.25
Middle: 3.03
Lower: 2.82
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.25, Middle: 3.03, Lower: 2.82
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.1 | 108.4 | 105.9 | 102.83 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Total Supply | 114.4 | 113.1 | 110.6 | 107.4 |
| Industrial Demand | 25.0 | 23.9 | 23.4 | 23.73 |
| Electric Power Demand | 33.2 | 30.9 | 27.6 | 29.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.4 | 42.0 | 23.7 | 28.3 |
| LNG Exports | 19.2 | 19.3 | 16.4 | 14.27 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.1 | 7.4 |
| Total Demand | 140.22 | 131.52 | 104.3 | 108.87 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -25.82 | -18.42 | 6.3 | -1.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
133.0 HDD
-17.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
89.0 HDD
-48.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
8.0 CDD
+8.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
17.0 CDD
+16.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | 11.0 | 23.0 | -12.0 |
| 03/12 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/13 | 20.0 | 21.0 | -1.0 |
| 03/14 | 18.0 | 21.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/15 | 16.0 | 21.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/16 | 22.0 | 21.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/17 | 28.0 | 21.0 | +7.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/19 | 15.0 | 20.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/20 | 10.0 | 20.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/21 | 8.0 | 20.0 | -12.0 |
| 03/22 | 9.0 | 20.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/23 | 16.0 | 20.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/24 | 17.0 | 19.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/25 | 14.0 | 18.0 | -4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/12 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/13 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/14 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/15 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/16 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/17 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/19 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/20 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/21 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/22 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/23 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/24 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/25 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.42
Daily:
-0.67 (-0.67%)
Weekly:
-0.94 (-0.93%)
US_10Y
4.28
Daily:
0.02 (0.52%)
Weekly:
-0.0 (-0.09%)
SP500
6606.49
Daily:
-18.21 (-0.27%)
Weekly:
-25.7 (-0.39%)
VIX
24.06
Daily:
-1.03 (-4.11%)
Weekly:
-3.13 (-11.51%)
GOLD
4732.5
Daily:
-157.4 (-3.22%)
Weekly:
-320.0 (-6.33%)
COPPER
5.55
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.13%)
Weekly:
-0.17 (-2.93%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-10
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,565,341
Change: -40,951
Managed Money
-62,982
Change: +13,270
-4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
8,300
Change: -10,097
0.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
155,872
Change: -10,091
10.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-123,874
Change: +6,296
-7.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-10
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,051,321
Change: -21,712
Managed Money
92,122
Change: +23,737
4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
212,558
Change: +33,889
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-489,005
Change: -88,009
-23.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 17.435 EUR/MWh (+0.422). JKM prices increased to 20.175 USD/MMBtu (+0.765). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.740 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
17.435
+0.422Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-19
JKM Prices
20.175
+0.765Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-03-19
JKM-TTF Spread
2.740
15.72%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-19
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.8
18.9
17.1
15.2
13.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 17.435 |
| MAY 26 | 18.366 |
| JUN 26 | 18.222 |
| JUL 26 | 18.118 |
| AUG 26 | 18.044 |
| SEP 26 | 17.993 |
| OCT 26 | 17.900 |
| NOV 26 | 17.812 |
| DEC 26 | 17.734 |
| JAN 27 | 17.628 |
| FEB 27 | 17.300 |
| MAR 27 | 16.108 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 20.175 |
| JUN 26 | 19.890 |
| JUL 26 | 19.560 |
| AUG 26 | 19.170 |
| SEP 26 | 18.750 |
| OCT 26 | 18.315 |
| NOV 26 | 18.275 |
| DEC 26 | 18.440 |
| JAN 27 | 18.195 |
| FEB 27 | 17.815 |
| MAR 27 | 16.205 |
| APR 27 | 13.995 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-17 to 2026-03-18
Latest LNG Flow
18.30
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.80
(-4.2%)
30-Day Average
18.87
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | 18.20 | N/A |
| 2026-03-10 | 18.80 | +0.60 |
| 2026-03-11 | 18.80 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | 19.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-03-13 | 19.30 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-14 | 19.10 | -0.20 |
| 2026-03-15 | 19.20 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-16 | 19.40 | +0.20 |
| 2026-03-17 | 19.10 | -0.30 |
| 2026-03-18 | 18.30 | -0.80 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.1
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
167
Last Updated:
2026-03-19 23:47:40
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (15 articles)
- US natural gas futures rise as output drops and demand climbs Reuters
- US natgas futures steady as Texas Freeport LNG unit shutdown offsets supply drop Reuters
- US natural gas futures slide 3% as output climbs, demand wanes Reuters
- US natural gas futures dip 1% as output climbs, demand wanes Reuters
- Oil falls as US and allies look to boost supply, unchoke Strait of Hormuz Reuters
- Oil Market Seems to Be Pricing in Supply Disruptions, Not Just Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Drops as Supply Concerns Ease Trading Economics
- Dollar Firms as Oil Price Rebounds on Supply Disruption Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises on Lingering Supply Concerns Trading Economics
- Oil gains over 2% as market weighs Iran war supply risks Reuters
- Oil Rises Amid Ongoing Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises on Lingering Supply Concerns Trading Economics
- Supply Shortage Will Need to Persist to Support Current Oil Price Level — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Brent Tops $105 on Supply Risks Despite Trump's Call for Hormuz Coalition — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Energy Supply Uncertainty Will Likely Keep Euro Weak Versus Dollar — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (7 articles)
- US natural gas futures rise as output drops and demand climbs Reuters
- US natural gas futures dip as mild weather and lower demand loom Reuters
- TTF Prices Ease on Iraq Exports, Hormuz Efforts Trading Economics
- US natural gas futures slide 3% as output climbs, demand wanes Reuters
- US natural gas futures dip 1% as output climbs, demand wanes Reuters
- Oil Falls as Iraq Strikes Oil Exports Deal But Hormuz Constraints Remain — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Gains as U.S. Allies Rebuff Trump's Demand to Help Reopen Hormuz — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (8 articles)
- Oil Futures Rise Amid Widening Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Signs of Market Fatigue About Middle East Conflict Emerge — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Market Seems to Be Pricing in Supply Disruptions, Not Just Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Holds Gains as Iran Conflict Persists Trading Economics
- Crude Rises as Conflict Spreads to More Middle Eastern Oil Fields — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict to Delay BOE Rate Cuts, Hikes Look Unlikely — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Asian Growth Likely Hit Hard by Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- ING Adjusts Forecasts for Oil Depending on Conflict Length — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (4 articles)
- US natural gas futures dip as mild weather and lower demand loom Reuters
- US Crude Oil Inventories Top Forecasts Trading Economics
- Morningstar Maintains $65 a Barrel Brent Midcycle Forecast — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- ING Adjusts Forecasts for Oil Depending on Conflict Length — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.12
Closest Support:
$2.78
10.9% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
27.24% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.17
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-19 23:47:40
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.05%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | $3.17 | $2.95 | $3.38 |
| 2026-03-21 | $3.18 | $2.97 | $3.4 |
| 2026-03-22 | $3.17 | $2.96 | $3.38 |
| 2026-03-23 | $3.17 | $2.96 | $3.38 |
| 2026-03-24 | $3.16 | $2.95 | $3.38 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2026-03-20), reaching $3.17.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-20 and 2026-03-24.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market conditions present a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.78, while resistance is noted at 3.97. With the ML price forecast indicating a slight increase of 0.05%, traders should monitor for potential short-term volatility around these levels. The heating demand is expected to dominate, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which could influence near-term price movements.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should take note of the fundamental balance at -25.82 BCFD, reflecting a significant decrease in supply. This may necessitate adjustments in production planning and hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating demand. The positive sentiment for natural gas, with +0.600, suggests a favorable outlook for pricing, especially as demand climbs amid dropping output. Monitoring geopolitical developments remains crucial, as they can impact supply stability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the current heating demand, which is expected to remain moderate. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply, which may lead to increased prices in the near term. The neutral sentiment in the market suggests that while immediate price spikes may be limited, ongoing monitoring of demand and supply dynamics is essential for effective procurement strategies.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a complex picture with neutral overall sentiment and a fundamental balance indicating a tightening supply scenario. The positive sentiment around natural gas contrasts with the bearish outlook for crude oil, influenced by geopolitical tensions. Analysts should focus on the interplay between weather patterns and production strategies as key drivers of market dynamics, particularly in light of the recent ML price forecasts suggesting slight upward movement.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.