Natural gas is stuck between a soft U.S. balance and a tight global LNG market, with Henry Hub holding the key $3.00–$3.247 zone after bouncing from $2.85 despite demand forecasts falling toward ~110 Bcf/d and production near ~110–112 Bcf/d. Storage around ~1.8–1.9 Tcf (near the 5-year average) and shoulder season dynamics typically pressure prices lower, reinforced by regional oversupply signals like Waha trading negative for 30+ days. However, global disruption is offsetting that weakness, with Qatar’s Ras Laffan (~20% of global LNG supply) offline and Hormuz risk keeping TTF (~€50–€60) and JKM ($20+) elevated. U.S. LNG exports near max capacity (~18.5–20 Bcf/d) effectively lock in strong demand, creating a floor under prices even as domestic fundamentals soften. If $3.00 breaks, the market likely targets $2.762, but if $3.247 holds and flips to support, $3.449 becomes the next upside magnet. Watch LNG feedgas flows, global benchmarks (TTF/JKM), storage injections, regional pricing like Waha, and the $3.00/$3.247 technical levels, as the market will swing between domestic oversupply and global tightness depending on which force takes control.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-20 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas markets are currently navigating a tug-of-war between a soft U.S. balance and tight global LNG conditions. Prices have recently fluctuated around the critical $3.00–$3.247 range, influenced by rising production (~110–112 Bcf/d) and milder weather forecasts. However, disruptions in global supply, notably from Qatar's Ras Laffan, have provided upward pressure. Key indicators to watch include LNG feedgas flows, regional pricing, and the resilience of the $3.00 level, which could dictate future price movements. Stay sharp!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand increased by 8.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 25.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.1
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.11
MA(20): $3.04
Current Price is 3.1, 9 day MA 3.11, 20 day MA 3.04
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0957
Signal: -0.1412
Days since crossover: 14
MACD crossed the line 14 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.87
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.87 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 101,136
Avg (20d): 144,856
Ratio: 0.7
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 34.0
%D: 39.41
Stochastic %K: 34.0, %D: 39.41. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 17.31
+DI: 26.99
-DI: 17.77
ADX: 17.31 (+DI: 26.99, -DI: 17.77). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -66.0
Williams %R: -66.0 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.26
Middle: 3.04
Lower: 2.82
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.26, Middle: 3.04, Lower: 2.82
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.1 | 108.4 | 105.9 | 102.83 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Total Supply | 114.4 | 113.1 | 110.6 | 107.4 |
| Industrial Demand | 25.0 | 23.9 | 23.4 | 23.73 |
| Electric Power Demand | 33.2 | 30.9 | 27.6 | 29.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.4 | 42.0 | 23.7 | 28.3 |
| LNG Exports | 19.2 | 19.3 | 16.4 | 14.27 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.1 | 7.4 |
| Total Demand | 140.22 | 131.52 | 104.3 | 108.87 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -25.82 | -18.42 | 6.3 | -1.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
146.0 HDD
-2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
79.0 HDD
-56.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
7.0 CDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
19.0 CDD
+17.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/13 | 20.0 | 21.0 | -1.0 |
| 03/14 | 18.0 | 21.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/15 | 16.0 | 21.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/16 | 22.0 | 21.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/17 | 28.0 | 21.0 | +7.0 |
| 03/18 | 24.0 | 21.0 | +3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/20 | 10.0 | 20.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/21 | 8.0 | 20.0 | -12.0 |
| 03/22 | 8.0 | 20.0 | -12.0 |
| 03/23 | 14.0 | 20.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/24 | 15.0 | 19.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/25 | 13.0 | 18.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/26 | 11.0 | 18.0 | -7.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/13 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/14 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/15 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/16 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/17 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/20 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/21 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/22 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/23 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/24 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/25 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/26 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.5
Daily:
0.27 (0.28%)
Weekly:
-0.21 (-0.21%)
US_10Y
4.39
Daily:
0.11 (2.57%)
Weekly:
0.17 (4.05%)
SP500
6506.48
Daily:
-100.01 (-1.51%)
Weekly:
-192.9 (-2.88%)
VIX
26.78
Daily:
2.72 (11.31%)
Weekly:
3.27 (13.91%)
GOLD
4492.0
Daily:
-108.7 (-2.36%)
Weekly:
-502.0 (-10.05%)
COPPER
5.3
Daily:
-0.13 (-2.41%)
Weekly:
-0.49 (-8.44%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-17
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,560,291
Change: -5,050
Managed Money
-44,628
Change: +18,354
-2.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-4,055
Change: -12,355
-0.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
161,461
Change: +5,589
10.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-133,401
Change: -9,527
-8.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-17
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,081,576
Change: +30,255
Managed Money
96,371
Change: +4,249
4.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
249,396
Change: +36,838
12.0% of OI
Swap Dealers
-512,025
Change: -23,020
-24.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 18.325 EUR/MWh (+0.890). JKM prices increased to 22.350 USD/MMBtu (+2.175). JKM is trading at a premium of 4.025 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
18.325
+0.890Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-20
JKM Prices
22.350
+2.175Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-03-20
JKM-TTF Spread
4.025
21.96%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-20
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
23.3
21.6
19.9
18.2
16.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 18.325 |
| MAY 26 | 20.913 |
| JUN 26 | 20.840 |
| JUL 26 | 20.745 |
| AUG 26 | 20.675 |
| SEP 26 | 20.633 |
| OCT 26 | 20.591 |
| NOV 26 | 20.530 |
| DEC 26 | 20.502 |
| JAN 27 | 20.454 |
| FEB 27 | 20.204 |
| MAR 27 | 19.027 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 22.350 |
| JUN 26 | 22.725 |
| JUL 26 | 22.465 |
| AUG 26 | 22.030 |
| SEP 26 | 21.560 |
| OCT 26 | 21.185 |
| NOV 26 | 21.130 |
| DEC 26 | 21.420 |
| JAN 27 | 21.225 |
| FEB 27 | 20.885 |
| MAR 27 | 19.360 |
| APR 27 | 17.010 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-18 to 2026-03-19
Latest LNG Flow
18.90
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.60
(+3.3%)
30-Day Average
18.87
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 18.80 | N/A |
| 2026-03-11 | 18.80 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-12 | 19.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-03-13 | 19.30 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-14 | 19.10 | -0.20 |
| 2026-03-15 | 19.20 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-16 | 19.40 | +0.20 |
| 2026-03-17 | 19.10 | -0.30 |
| 2026-03-18 | 18.30 | -0.80 |
| 2026-03-19 | 18.90 | +0.60 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.417
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
163
Last Updated:
2026-03-20 23:47:53
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (10 articles)
- Oil Slips as Supply Concerns Ease Trading Economics
- Oil falls as US and allies look to boost supply, unchoke Strait of Hormuz Reuters
- Oil Trims Gains as U.S. Signals Potential Sanctions Relief, Strategic Reserves Release — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Market Seems to Be Pricing in Supply Disruptions, Not Just Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Drops as Supply Concerns Ease Trading Economics
- Dollar Firms as Oil Price Rebounds on Supply Disruption Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises on Lingering Supply Concerns Trading Economics
- US natural gas futures drop 2% on output rise, milder weather forecasts Reuters
- US natural gas futures rise as output drops and demand climbs Reuters
- US natgas futures steady as Texas Freeport LNG unit shutdown offsets supply drop Reuters
Demand (6 articles)
- Mideast Conflict Set to Have Mixed Impact on Malaysia Exports — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Falls as Iraq Strikes Oil Exports Deal But Hormuz Constraints Remain — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Gains as U.S. Allies Rebuff Trump's Demand to Help Reopen Hormuz — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natural gas futures rise as output drops and demand climbs Reuters
- US natural gas futures dip as mild weather and lower demand loom Reuters
- TTF Prices Ease on Iraq Exports, Hormuz Efforts Trading Economics
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (9 articles)
- Mideast Conflict Set to Have Mixed Impact on Malaysia Exports — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Falls Amid Prospects of Removal of U.S. Sanctions on Iranian Oil at Sea — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Trims Gains as U.S. Signals Potential Sanctions Relief, Strategic Reserves Release — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise Amid Widening Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Signs of Market Fatigue About Middle East Conflict Emerge — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Market Seems to Be Pricing in Supply Disruptions, Not Just Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Holds Gains as Iran Conflict Persists Trading Economics
- Crude Rises as Conflict Spreads to More Middle Eastern Oil Fields — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict to Delay BOE Rate Cuts, Hikes Look Unlikely — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (5 articles)
- US Crude Oil Inventories Top Forecasts Trading Economics
- Morningstar Maintains $65 a Barrel Brent Midcycle Forecast — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Nat-Gas Prices Slide as US Weather Warms Barchart
- US natural gas futures drop 2% on output rise, milder weather forecasts Reuters
- US natural gas futures dip as mild weather and lower demand loom Reuters
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.1
Closest Support:
$2.78
10.32% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
28.06% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.1
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-20 23:47:54
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.72%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | $3.12 | $2.93 | $3.3 |
| 2026-03-22 | $3.09 | $2.91 | $3.28 |
| 2026-03-23 | $3.1 | $2.92 | $3.29 |
| 2026-03-24 | $3.09 | $2.91 | $3.28 |
| 2026-03-25 | $3.1 | $2.91 | $3.29 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.72% for the next trading day (2026-03-21), reaching $3.12.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-21 and 2026-03-25.
- The average confidence interval width is ~12.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Market indicators suggest a neutral stance with a fundamental balance of -25.82 BCFD. The Fibonacci support level at 2.78 may provide a cushion against downward pressure, while resistance at 3.97 indicates potential selling points. The ML price forecast predicts an upward movement of 0.72% within a range of 2.93 to 3.3, suggesting short-term trading opportunities. However, traders should remain cautious of volatility stemming from the high heating demand and the overall market sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should take note of the fundamental balance indicating a -25.82 BCFD shift, suggesting lower supply relative to demand. With high heating demand expected, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, this could influence production planning. The market sentiment towards crude oil is positive, which may encourage hedging strategies to lock in favorable prices. However, the recent news regarding output increases and milder weather forecasts could challenge pricing stability, necessitating careful monitoring of market dynamics.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the high heating demand forecasted, which could impact supply reliability. The current fundamental balance of -25.82 BCFD indicates a tighter market, potentially leading to increased prices. As the market sentiment remains positive, consumers may want to consider procurement strategies or hedging to mitigate risks associated with rising costs in the near term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a neutral technical outlook, with a fundamental balance of -25.82 BCFD indicating supply constraints. The overall market sentiment is positive, particularly for crude oil, while natural gas prices are influenced by weather patterns and output levels. Analysts should focus on the interplay between heating demand and production forecasts, as these will be key drivers of market behavior in the coming days.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.