Natural gas is stuck between a soft U.S. balance and a tight global LNG market, with Henry Hub holding the key $3.00–$3.247 zone after bouncing from $2.85 despite demand forecasts falling toward ~110 Bcf/d and production near ~110–112 Bcf/d. Storage around ~1.8–1.9 Tcf (near the 5-year average) and shoulder season dynamics typically pressure prices lower, reinforced by regional oversupply signals like Waha trading negative for 30+ days. However, global disruption is offsetting that weakness, with Qatar’s Ras Laffan (~20% of global LNG supply) offline and Hormuz risk keeping TTF (~€50–€60) and JKM ($20+) elevated. U.S. LNG exports near max capacity (~18.5–20 Bcf/d) effectively lock in strong demand, creating a floor under prices even as domestic fundamentals soften. If $3.00 breaks, the market likely targets $2.762, but if $3.247 holds and flips to support, $3.449 becomes the next upside magnet. Watch LNG feedgas flows, global benchmarks (TTF/JKM), storage injections, regional pricing like Waha, and the $3.00/$3.247 technical levels, as the market will swing between domestic oversupply and global tightness depending on which force takes control.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-21 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas markets are navigating a tight global LNG landscape while facing soft domestic fundamentals. The Henry Hub is testing the critical $3.00–$3.247 range, bouncing from $2.85 amidst rising production (~110–112 Bcf/d) and demand forecasts falling to ~110 Bcf/d. Storage levels hover around the 5-year average. Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly disruptions in Qatar, are adding upward pressure, yet regional oversupply signals like negative Waha pricing persist. Watch for fluctuations as the market balances global tightness with domestic oversupply dynamics.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand increased by 8.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 25.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.1
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.11
MA(20): $3.04
Current Price is 3.1, 9 day MA 3.11, 20 day MA 3.04
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0958
Signal: -0.1413
Days since crossover: 14
MACD crossed the line 14 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.84
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.84 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 101,136
Avg (20d): 144,856
Ratio: 0.7
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 33.83
%D: 39.35
Stochastic %K: 33.83, %D: 39.35. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 17.31
+DI: 26.99
-DI: 17.77
ADX: 17.31 (+DI: 26.99, -DI: 17.77). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -66.17
Williams %R: -66.17 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.26
Middle: 3.04
Lower: 2.82
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.26, Middle: 3.04, Lower: 2.82
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.1 | 108.4 | 105.9 | 102.83 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Total Supply | 114.4 | 113.1 | 110.6 | 107.4 |
| Industrial Demand | 25.0 | 23.9 | 23.4 | 23.73 |
| Electric Power Demand | 33.2 | 30.9 | 27.6 | 29.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.4 | 42.0 | 23.7 | 28.3 |
| LNG Exports | 19.2 | 19.3 | 16.4 | 14.27 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.1 | 7.4 |
| Total Demand | 140.22 | 131.52 | 104.3 | 108.87 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -25.82 | -18.42 | 6.3 | -1.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
144.0 HDD
-2.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
86.0 HDD
-46.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
7.0 CDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
17.0 CDD
+14.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/13 | 20.0 | 21.0 | -1.0 |
| 03/14 | 18.0 | 21.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/15 | 16.0 | 21.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/16 | 22.0 | 21.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/17 | 28.0 | 21.0 | +7.0 |
| 03/18 | 24.0 | 21.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/19 | 16.0 | 20.0 | -4.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/21 | 8.0 | 20.0 | -12.0 |
| 03/22 | 8.0 | 20.0 | -12.0 |
| 03/23 | 14.0 | 20.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/24 | 15.0 | 19.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/25 | 14.0 | 18.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/26 | 11.0 | 18.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/27 | 16.0 | 17.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/13 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/14 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/15 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/16 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/17 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/21 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/22 | 3.0 | 0.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/23 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/24 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/25 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/26 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/27 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.5
Daily:
0.27 (0.28%)
Weekly:
-0.21 (-0.21%)
US_10Y
4.39
Daily:
0.11 (2.57%)
Weekly:
0.17 (4.05%)
SP500
6506.48
Daily:
-100.01 (-1.51%)
Weekly:
-192.9 (-2.88%)
VIX
26.78
Daily:
2.72 (11.31%)
Weekly:
3.27 (13.91%)
GOLD
4574.9
Daily:
-25.8 (-0.56%)
Weekly:
-419.1 (-8.39%)
COPPER
5.37
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.08%)
Weekly:
-0.42 (-7.18%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-17
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,560,291
Change: -5,050
Managed Money
-44,628
Change: +18,354
-2.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-4,055
Change: -12,355
-0.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
161,461
Change: +5,589
10.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-133,401
Change: -9,527
-8.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-17
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,081,576
Change: +30,255
Managed Money
96,371
Change: +4,249
4.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
249,396
Change: +36,838
12.0% of OI
Swap Dealers
-512,025
Change: -23,020
-24.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 18.061 EUR/MWh (-0.264). JKM prices decreased to 21.705 USD/MMBtu (-0.645). JKM is trading at a premium of 3.644 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
18.061
-0.264Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-21
JKM Prices
21.705
-0.645Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-03-21
JKM-TTF Spread
3.644
20.18%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-21
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
22.2
20.7
19.2
17.6
16.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 18.061 |
| MAY 26 | 20.127 |
| JUN 26 | 20.143 |
| JUL 26 | 20.133 |
| AUG 26 | 20.101 |
| SEP 26 | 20.098 |
| OCT 26 | 20.048 |
| NOV 26 | 20.018 |
| DEC 26 | 20.023 |
| JAN 27 | 19.975 |
| FEB 27 | 19.772 |
| MAR 27 | 18.653 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 21.705 |
| JUN 26 | 21.610 |
| JUL 26 | 21.545 |
| AUG 26 | 21.260 |
| SEP 26 | 20.870 |
| OCT 26 | 20.550 |
| NOV 26 | 20.485 |
| DEC 26 | 20.710 |
| JAN 27 | 20.615 |
| FEB 27 | 20.300 |
| MAR 27 | 18.765 |
| APR 27 | 16.610 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-19 to 2026-03-20
Latest LNG Flow
18.90
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.00
(+0.0%)
30-Day Average
18.86
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | 18.80 | N/A |
| 2026-03-12 | 19.30 | +0.50 |
| 2026-03-13 | 19.30 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-14 | 19.10 | -0.20 |
| 2026-03-15 | 19.20 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-16 | 19.40 | +0.20 |
| 2026-03-17 | 19.10 | -0.30 |
| 2026-03-18 | 18.30 | -0.80 |
| 2026-03-19 | 18.90 | +0.60 |
| 2026-03-20 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
126
Last Updated:
2026-03-21 23:47:27
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (7 articles)
- Oil Slips as Supply Concerns Ease Trading Economics
- Oil falls as US and allies look to boost supply, unchoke Strait of Hormuz Reuters
- Oil Trims Gains as U.S. Signals Potential Sanctions Relief, Strategic Reserves Release — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Market Seems to Be Pricing in Supply Disruptions, Not Just Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Drops as Supply Concerns Ease Trading Economics
- US natural gas futures drop 2% on output rise, milder weather forecasts Reuters
- US natural gas futures rise as output drops and demand climbs Reuters
Demand (4 articles)
- Oil Falls as Iraq Strikes Oil Exports Deal But Hormuz Constraints Remain — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natural gas futures rise as output drops and demand climbs Reuters
- US natural gas futures dip as mild weather and lower demand loom Reuters
- TTF Prices Ease on Iraq Exports, Hormuz Efforts Trading Economics
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Oil Falls Amid Prospects of Removal of U.S. Sanctions on Iranian Oil at Sea — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Trims Gains as U.S. Signals Potential Sanctions Relief, Strategic Reserves Release — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise Amid Widening Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Signs of Market Fatigue About Middle East Conflict Emerge — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Market Seems to Be Pricing in Supply Disruptions, Not Just Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (3 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.1
Closest Support:
$2.78
10.32% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
28.06% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.1
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-21 23:47:28
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.72%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | $3.12 | $2.93 | $3.3 |
| 2026-03-22 | $3.09 | $2.91 | $3.28 |
| 2026-03-23 | $3.1 | $2.92 | $3.29 |
| 2026-03-24 | $3.09 | $2.91 | $3.28 |
| 2026-03-25 | $3.1 | $2.91 | $3.29 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.72% for the next trading day (2026-03-21), reaching $3.12.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-21 and 2026-03-25.
- The average confidence interval width is ~12.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market sentiment is currently bullish with a sentiment score of +0.400. However, the technical interpretation remains neutral with a score of -1/5. Traders should monitor the Fibonacci support at 2.78 and resistance at 3.97 for potential price movements.
The ML price forecast indicates a potential increase of 0.72% with a range between 2.93 and 3.3. This suggests short-term opportunities for traders, but volatility may arise due to the high heating demand in most regions, especially the Northeast and Midwest.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance shows a deficiency of -25.82 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply situation. Producers should consider adjusting production levels in response to this bullish sentiment, particularly as heating demand is expected to remain high.
With the news sentiment also leaning positive, it may be prudent to explore hedging strategies to mitigate potential price fluctuations while capitalizing on favorable market conditions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the anticipated high heating demand across various regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest.
The fundamental balance indicates a tightening supply, which may lead to increased prices. It is advisable to consider procurement strategies or hedging options to manage costs effectively in the coming weeks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently exhibiting a bullish sentiment overall, with strong demand for natural gas driven by high heating needs. The fundamental balance is showing a significant negative shift, indicating supply constraints that could lead to upward price pressure.
Analysts should closely monitor the weather outlook and its implications on heating demand, alongside the ML price forecast which suggests a potential price increase. These factors could lead to shifts in market dynamics that warrant further exploration and analysis.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.