Natural gas is stuck between a soft U.S. balance and a tight global LNG market, with Henry Hub holding the key $3.00–$3.247 zone after bouncing from $2.85 despite demand forecasts falling toward ~110 Bcf/d and production near ~110–112 Bcf/d. Storage around ~1.8–1.9 Tcf (near the 5-year average) and shoulder season dynamics typically pressure prices lower, reinforced by regional oversupply signals like Waha trading negative for 30+ days. However, global disruption is offsetting that weakness, with Qatar’s Ras Laffan (~20% of global LNG supply) offline and Hormuz risk keeping TTF (~€50–€60) and JKM ($20+) elevated. U.S. LNG exports near max capacity (~18.5–20 Bcf/d) effectively lock in strong demand, creating a floor under prices even as domestic fundamentals soften. If $3.00 breaks, the market likely targets $2.762, but if $3.247 holds and flips to support, $3.449 becomes the next upside magnet. Watch LNG feedgas flows, global benchmarks (TTF/JKM), storage injections, regional pricing like Waha, and the $3.00/$3.247 technical levels, as the market will swing between domestic oversupply and global tightness depending on which force takes control.
* Nat Gas followed crude with a precipitous drop after Trump’s declaration of victory in Iran. This technically has no impact on Nat Gas in the US - so right now this is likely a dip as NG is undervalued imho.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-23 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently navigating a turbulent sea between a soft U.S. supply and a tight global LNG market. Henry Hub prices have been oscillating around the $3.00–$3.247 range, partly influenced by warm U.S. weather and falling demand forecasts. Despite domestic oversupply signals, global disruptions, particularly from Qatar and rising TTF and JKM benchmarks, provide a cushion. Watch for key price levels as a break below $3.00 could target $2.762, whereas a hold above $3.247 may push prices to $3.449. The market remains a tug of war between domestic softness and global tightness.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand increased by 8.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 25.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$2.92
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.1
MA(20): $3.04
Current Price is 2.92, 9 day MA 3.1, 20 day MA 3.04
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1024
Signal: -0.1335
Days since crossover: 15
MACD crossed the line 15 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.49
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.49 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 4,239
Avg (20d): 142,575
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 6.55
%D: 29.35
Stochastic %K: 6.55, %D: 29.35. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 16.73
+DI: 25.42
-DI: 21.18
ADX: 16.73 (+DI: 25.42, -DI: 21.18). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -93.45
Williams %R: -93.45 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.26
Middle: 3.04
Lower: 2.81
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.26, Middle: 3.04, Lower: 2.81
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.1 | 108.4 | 105.9 | 102.83 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Total Supply | 114.4 | 113.1 | 110.6 | 107.4 |
| Industrial Demand | 25.0 | 23.9 | 23.4 | 23.73 |
| Electric Power Demand | 33.2 | 30.9 | 27.6 | 29.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.4 | 42.0 | 23.7 | 28.3 |
| LNG Exports | 19.2 | 19.3 | 16.4 | 14.27 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.1 | 7.4 |
| Total Demand | 140.22 | 131.52 | 104.3 | 108.87 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -25.82 | -18.42 | 6.3 | -1.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
126.0 HDD
-18.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
99.0 HDD
-25.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
9.0 CDD
+9.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
14.0 CDD
+9.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/15 | 16.0 | 21.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/16 | 22.0 | 21.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/17 | 28.0 | 21.0 | +7.0 |
| 03/18 | 24.0 | 21.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/19 | 16.0 | 20.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/20 | 11.0 | 20.0 | -9.0 |
| 03/21 | 9.0 | 20.0 | -11.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/23 | 15.0 | 20.0 | -5.0 |
| 03/24 | 16.0 | 19.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/25 | 11.0 | 18.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/26 | 8.0 | 18.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/27 | 15.0 | 17.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/28 | 19.0 | 16.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/29 | 15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/15 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/16 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/17 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/20 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/21 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/23 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/24 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/25 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/26 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/27 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/28 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/29 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.38
Daily:
-0.27 (-0.27%)
Weekly:
-0.2 (-0.2%)
US_10Y
4.33
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.3%)
Weekly:
0.13 (3.14%)
SP500
6581.0
Daily:
74.52 (1.15%)
Weekly:
-135.09 (-2.01%)
VIX
26.15
Daily:
-0.63 (-2.35%)
Weekly:
3.78 (16.9%)
GOLD
4340.6
Daily:
-229.8 (-5.03%)
Weekly:
-660.4 (-13.21%)
COPPER
5.41
Daily:
0.06 (1.18%)
Weekly:
-0.32 (-5.61%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-17
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,560,291
Change: -5,050
Managed Money
-44,628
Change: +18,354
-2.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-4,055
Change: -12,355
-0.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
161,461
Change: +5,589
10.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-133,401
Change: -9,527
-8.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-17
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,081,576
Change: +30,255
Managed Money
96,371
Change: +4,249
4.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
249,396
Change: +36,838
12.0% of OI
Swap Dealers
-512,025
Change: -23,020
-24.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 18.061 EUR/MWh (-0.264). JKM prices decreased to 21.705 USD/MMBtu (-0.645). JKM is trading at a premium of 3.644 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
18.061
-0.264Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-23
JKM Prices
21.705
-0.645Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-03-23
JKM-TTF Spread
3.644
20.18%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-23
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
22.2
20.7
19.2
17.6
16.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 18.061 |
| MAY 26 | 20.127 |
| JUN 26 | 20.143 |
| JUL 26 | 20.133 |
| AUG 26 | 20.101 |
| SEP 26 | 20.098 |
| OCT 26 | 20.048 |
| NOV 26 | 20.018 |
| DEC 26 | 20.023 |
| JAN 27 | 19.975 |
| FEB 27 | 19.772 |
| MAR 27 | 18.653 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 21.705 |
| JUN 26 | 21.610 |
| JUL 26 | 21.545 |
| AUG 26 | 21.260 |
| SEP 26 | 20.870 |
| OCT 26 | 20.550 |
| NOV 26 | 20.485 |
| DEC 26 | 20.710 |
| JAN 27 | 20.615 |
| FEB 27 | 20.300 |
| MAR 27 | 18.765 |
| APR 27 | 16.610 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-21 to 2026-03-22
Latest LNG Flow
18.90
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.00
(+0.0%)
30-Day Average
18.86
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | 19.30 | N/A |
| 2026-03-14 | 19.10 | -0.20 |
| 2026-03-15 | 19.20 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-16 | 19.40 | +0.20 |
| 2026-03-17 | 19.10 | -0.30 |
| 2026-03-18 | 18.30 | -0.80 |
| 2026-03-19 | 18.90 | +0.60 |
| 2026-03-20 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-21 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-22 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.433
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
98
Last Updated:
2026-03-23 23:47:47
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
NATURAL_GAS
-0.7
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Oil rises as markets assess supply risks after Iran denies US talks Reuters
- Oil Retreats on Proposed Moves to Reopen Hormuz, Boost Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Slips as Supply Concerns Ease Trading Economics
- US natural gas futures drop 2% on output rise, milder weather forecasts Reuters
Demand (1 articles)
- Mideast Conflict Set to Have Mixed Impact on Malaysia Exports — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (2 articles)
- Bonds Decoupling From Oil Amid Longer Conflict Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Mideast Conflict Set to Have Mixed Impact on Malaysia Exports — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (3 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.92
Closest Support:
$2.78
4.79% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
35.96% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.89
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-23 23:47:47
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.15%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | $2.89 | $2.68 | $3.09 |
| 2026-03-25 | $2.86 | $2.66 | $3.06 |
| 2026-03-26 | $2.88 | $2.68 | $3.08 |
| 2026-03-27 | $2.88 | $2.68 | $3.08 |
| 2026-03-28 | $2.9 | $2.7 | $3.1 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2026-03-24), reaching $2.89.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-24 and 2026-03-28.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
With a neutral technical interpretation and a Fibonacci support at 2.78 and resistance at 3.97, traders should watch for price movements within this range. The bearish overall market sentiment, indicated by a sentiment score of -0.433, suggests potential downward pressure on prices. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.15%, which could present short-term trading opportunities, especially if prices approach the support level.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance shows a deficit of -25.82 BCFD, which may impact production planning. Producers should consider this alongside the bearish sentiment in the market, particularly for natural gas with a sentiment score of -0.700. This suggests a need for cautious hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines due to rising output and milder weather forecasts.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With moderate heating demand expected in the residential and commercial sectors, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the weather outlook that favors heating (HDD: 7.0). The bearish sentiment in the market could lead to lower prices, but the risk of supply reliability issues remains due to the negative balance. Consumers may want to consider strategic procurement or hedging to lock in current rates before any potential price increases.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment across key commodities, particularly natural gas and crude oil. The fundamental balance indicates a significant negative shift, while the weather outlook suggests continued heating demand. Analysts should focus on these driving factors as they assess potential shifts in market dynamics and prepare for volatility in the near term.
Disclaimer: This analysis does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations. Please consult a financial advisor for personalized guidance.