Natural gas is stuck between a soft U.S. balance and a tight global LNG market, with Henry Hub holding the key $3.00–$3.247 zone after bouncing from $2.85 despite demand forecasts falling toward ~110 Bcf/d and production near ~110–112 Bcf/d. Storage around ~1.8–1.9 Tcf (near the 5-year average) and shoulder season dynamics typically pressure prices lower, reinforced by regional oversupply signals like Waha trading negative for 30+ days. However, global disruption is offsetting that weakness, with Qatar’s Ras Laffan (~20% of global LNG supply) offline and Hormuz risk keeping TTF (~€50–€60) and JKM ($20+) elevated. U.S. LNG exports near max capacity (~18.5–20 Bcf/d) effectively lock in strong demand, creating a floor under prices even as domestic fundamentals soften. If $3.00 breaks, the market likely targets $2.762, but if $3.247 holds and flips to support, $3.449 becomes the next upside magnet. Watch LNG feedgas flows, global benchmarks (TTF/JKM), storage injections, regional pricing like Waha, and the $3.00/$3.247 technical levels, as the market will swing between domestic oversupply and global tightness depending on which force takes control.
* Nat Gas followed crude with a precipitous drop after Trump’s declaration of victory in Iran. This technically has no impact on Nat Gas in the US - so right now this is likely a dip as NG is undervalued imho.
* Milder weather is bringing Natty back down….I see this as temporary as the supply-demand balance is not THAT bearish. This is a normal mild weather pattern and I expect $3 to be on the table again soon (but if 2.76 fails - look for 2.50)
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-24 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently navigating a delicate balance between a soft U.S. market and a tight global LNG landscape. Prices are holding around the key $3.00–$3.247 mark, with production and demand at approximately 110 Bcf/d. While regional oversupply pressures exist, global disruptions—like Qatar's Ras Laffan offline—have kept TTF and JKM elevated. Despite mild weather prompting a temporary dip, the strong U.S. LNG export demand may provide a price floor. Watch for key technical levels and global benchmarks as the market adjusts.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand increased by 8.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 25.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$2.84
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $3.05
MA(20): $3.03
Current Price is 2.84, 9 day MA 3.05, 20 day MA 3.03
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1148
Signal: -0.1302
Days since crossover: 16
MACD crossed the line 16 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 40.68
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 40.68 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 4,417
Avg (20d): 145,074
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 2.84
%D: 13.09
Stochastic %K: 2.84, %D: 13.09. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 15.87
+DI: 24.5
-DI: 22.05
ADX: 15.87 (+DI: 24.5, -DI: 22.05). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -97.16
Williams %R: -97.16 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.27
Middle: 3.03
Lower: 2.79
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.27, Middle: 3.03, Lower: 2.79
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.1 | 108.4 | 105.9 | 102.83 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Total Supply | 114.4 | 113.1 | 110.6 | 107.4 |
| Industrial Demand | 25.0 | 23.9 | 23.4 | 23.73 |
| Electric Power Demand | 33.2 | 30.9 | 27.6 | 29.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.4 | 42.0 | 23.7 | 28.3 |
| LNG Exports | 19.2 | 19.3 | 16.4 | 14.27 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.1 | 7.4 |
| Total Demand | 140.22 | 131.52 | 104.3 | 108.87 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -25.82 | -18.42 | 6.3 | -1.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
120.0 HDD
-23.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
93.0 HDD
-27.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
10.0 CDD
+10.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
13.0 CDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/16 | 22.0 | 21.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/17 | 28.0 | 21.0 | +7.0 |
| 03/18 | 24.0 | 21.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/19 | 16.0 | 20.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/20 | 11.0 | 20.0 | -9.0 |
| 03/21 | 9.0 | 20.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/22 | 10.0 | 20.0 | -10.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/24 | 16.0 | 19.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/25 | 11.0 | 18.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/26 | 6.0 | 18.0 | -12.0 |
| 03/27 | 15.0 | 17.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/28 | 19.0 | 16.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/29 | 15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
| 03/30 | 11.0 | 16.0 | -5.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/16 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/17 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/20 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/21 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/22 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/24 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/25 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/26 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/27 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/28 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/29 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/30 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.28
Daily:
0.33 (0.33%)
Weekly:
-0.81 (-0.81%)
US_10Y
4.39
Daily:
0.06 (1.34%)
Weekly:
0.13 (3.12%)
SP500
6556.37
Daily:
-24.63 (-0.37%)
Weekly:
-68.33 (-1.03%)
VIX
26.95
Daily:
0.8 (3.06%)
Weekly:
1.86 (7.41%)
GOLD
4573.2
Daily:
169.1 (3.84%)
Weekly:
-316.7 (-6.48%)
COPPER
5.53
Daily:
0.09 (1.73%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.37%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-17
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,560,291
Change: -5,050
Managed Money
-44,628
Change: +18,354
-2.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-4,055
Change: -12,355
-0.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
161,461
Change: +5,589
10.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-133,401
Change: -9,527
-8.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-17
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,081,576
Change: +30,255
Managed Money
96,371
Change: +4,249
4.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
249,396
Change: +36,838
12.0% of OI
Swap Dealers
-512,025
Change: -23,020
-24.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 17.834 EUR/MWh (-0.227). JKM prices decreased to 21.000 USD/MMBtu (-0.705). JKM is trading at a premium of 3.166 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
17.834
-0.227Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-24
JKM Prices
21.000
-0.705Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-03-24
JKM-TTF Spread
3.166
17.75%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-24
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
21.5
20.1
18.7
17.4
16.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 17.834 |
| MAY 26 | 19.364 |
| JUN 26 | 19.413 |
| JUL 26 | 19.399 |
| AUG 26 | 19.376 |
| SEP 26 | 19.408 |
| OCT 26 | 19.423 |
| NOV 26 | 19.508 |
| DEC 26 | 19.551 |
| JAN 27 | 19.532 |
| FEB 27 | 19.398 |
| MAR 27 | 18.431 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 21.000 |
| JUN 26 | 20.620 |
| JUL 26 | 20.765 |
| AUG 26 | 20.540 |
| SEP 26 | 20.270 |
| OCT 26 | 19.995 |
| NOV 26 | 20.025 |
| DEC 26 | 20.295 |
| JAN 27 | 20.190 |
| FEB 27 | 19.960 |
| MAR 27 | 18.565 |
| APR 27 | 16.445 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-22 to 2026-03-23
Latest LNG Flow
19.00
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.10
(+0.5%)
30-Day Average
18.85
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | 19.10 | N/A |
| 2026-03-15 | 19.20 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-16 | 19.40 | +0.20 |
| 2026-03-17 | 19.10 | -0.30 |
| 2026-03-18 | 18.30 | -0.80 |
| 2026-03-19 | 18.90 | +0.60 |
| 2026-03-20 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-21 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-22 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-23 | 19.00 | +0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.233
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
104
Last Updated:
2026-03-24 23:48:00
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- Oil Rebounds After 10% Drop as Market Grapples With Conflicting Signals — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Retreat On Middle East Conflict Seen Easing — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Bonds Decoupling From Oil Amid Longer Conflict Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.84
Closest Support:
$2.78
2.11% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
39.79% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.94
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-24 23:48:01
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.0%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | $2.91 | $2.71 | $3.12 |
| 2026-03-26 | $2.94 | $2.74 | $3.14 |
| 2026-03-27 | $2.94 | $2.73 | $3.14 |
| 2026-03-28 | $2.95 | $2.75 | $3.15 |
| 2026-03-29 | $2.94 | $2.74 | $3.15 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.00% for the next trading day (2026-03-25), reaching $2.91.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 1.0% between 2026-03-25 and 2026-03-29.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market indicators suggest a neutral sentiment with a technical score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support is at 2.78 and resistance at 3.97. Given the ML price forecast indicating a potential downward trend of 1.00%, traders should be cautious. The convergence of low demand in both heating and cooling sectors, coupled with a bearish news sentiment score of -0.200, points towards potential volatility in the short term. Look for price movements around the support and resistance levels for trading opportunities.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should note the fundamental balance showing a deficit of -25.82 BCFD, indicating potential supply constraints. The neutral technical outlook suggests stability but the bearish sentiment in news could affect market confidence. With heating demand expected to be low, production planning may need to accommodate reduced consumption. Hedging strategies should be revisited in light of the market's volatility and geopolitical uncertainties highlighted in recent headlines.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains bearish and heating demand is projected to be low. The weather outlook indicates low heating and cooling demands, which may stabilize prices temporarily but could also lead to unexpected supply reliability risks. It is advisable to evaluate procurement strategies and consider hedging against price volatility, especially with the ML forecast predicting a downward trend.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a complex picture with a bearish overall sentiment and a technical score of -1/5. The significant fundamental balance deficit of -25.82 BCFD coupled with low demand across regions suggests a potential shift in market dynamics. Analysts should focus on the implications of low heating and cooling demands, as well as geopolitical events affecting oil prices, to provide informed insights. The current weather outlook and sentiment analysis will be crucial in forecasting potential shifts in market behavior.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for specific recommendations.