Natural gas is stuck between a soft U.S. balance and a tight global LNG market, with Henry Hub holding the key $3.00–$3.247 zone after bouncing from $2.85 despite demand forecasts falling toward ~110 Bcf/d and production near ~110–112 Bcf/d. Storage around ~1.8–1.9 Tcf (near the 5-year average) and shoulder season dynamics typically pressure prices lower, reinforced by regional oversupply signals like Waha trading negative for 30+ days. However, global disruption is offsetting that weakness, with Qatar’s Ras Laffan (~20% of global LNG supply) offline and Hormuz risk keeping TTF (~€50–€60) and JKM ($20+) elevated. U.S. LNG exports near max capacity (~18.5–20 Bcf/d) effectively lock in strong demand, creating a floor under prices even as domestic fundamentals soften. If $3.00 breaks, the market likely targets $2.762, but if $3.247 holds and flips to support, $3.449 becomes the next upside magnet. Watch LNG feedgas flows, global benchmarks (TTF/JKM), storage injections, regional pricing like Waha, and the $3.00/$3.247 technical levels, as the market will swing between domestic oversupply and global tightness depending on which force takes control.
* Nat Gas followed crude with a precipitous drop after Trump’s declaration of victory in Iran. This technically has no impact on Nat Gas in the US - so right now this is likely a dip as NG is undervalued imho.
* Milder weather is bringing Natty back down….I see this as temporary as the supply-demand balance is not THAT bearish. This is a normal mild weather pattern and I expect $3 to be on the table again soon (but if 2.76 fails - look for 2.50)
* Nat Gas made a nice rebound above the key 2.924 resistance - opening the door for $3 again - I expect a follow through to $3.247 near term. May is trading about $0.05 less than April - so as we roll contracts - $3 is going to be where we center today.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-25 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently navigating a tightrope between a soft domestic balance and a constrained global LNG market. Prices are hovering around the crucial $3.00–$3.247 range, rebounding from a dip to $2.85, as U.S. production and demand align near 110 Bcf/d. Factors like Qatar's LNG disruptions and regional oversupply are creating volatility. Keep an eye on storage levels and the $3.247 resistance, as a break could lead to $2.762, while support might push us toward $3.449. Watch global benchmarks closely!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand increased by 8.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 25.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$2.92
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.03
MA(20): $3.03
Current Price is 2.92, 9 day MA 3.03, 20 day MA 3.03
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1092
Signal: -0.1247
Days since crossover: 17
MACD crossed the line 17 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.79
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.79 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,771
Avg (20d): 140,885
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 6.79
%D: 6.79
Stochastic %K: 6.79, %D: 6.79. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 15.57
+DI: 24.01
-DI: 20.21
ADX: 15.57 (+DI: 24.01, -DI: 20.21). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -93.21
Williams %R: -93.21 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.26
Middle: 3.03
Lower: 2.8
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.26, Middle: 3.03, Lower: 2.8
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.1 | 108.4 | 105.9 | 102.83 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Total Supply | 114.4 | 113.1 | 110.6 | 107.4 |
| Industrial Demand | 25.0 | 23.9 | 23.4 | 23.73 |
| Electric Power Demand | 33.2 | 30.9 | 27.6 | 29.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.4 | 42.0 | 23.7 | 28.3 |
| LNG Exports | 19.2 | 19.3 | 16.4 | 14.27 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.1 | 7.4 |
| Total Demand | 140.22 | 131.52 | 104.3 | 108.87 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -25.82 | -18.42 | 6.3 | -1.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
114.0 HDD
-28.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
81.0 HDD
-36.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
10.0 CDD
+10.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
15.0 CDD
+8.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/17 | 28.0 | 21.0 | +7.0 |
| 03/18 | 24.0 | 21.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/19 | 16.0 | 20.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/20 | 11.0 | 20.0 | -9.0 |
| 03/21 | 9.0 | 20.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/22 | 10.0 | 20.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/23 | 16.0 | 20.0 | -4.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/25 | 11.0 | 18.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/26 | 6.0 | 18.0 | -12.0 |
| 03/27 | 14.0 | 17.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/28 | 18.0 | 16.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/29 | 14.0 | 16.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/30 | 9.0 | 16.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/31 | 9.0 | 16.0 | -7.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/17 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/20 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/21 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/22 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/25 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/26 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/27 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/28 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/29 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/30 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/31 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.59
Daily:
0.16 (0.16%)
Weekly:
0.36 (0.37%)
US_10Y
4.33
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.46%)
Weekly:
0.05 (1.1%)
SP500
6591.9
Daily:
35.53 (0.54%)
Weekly:
-14.59 (-0.22%)
VIX
25.33
Daily:
-1.62 (-6.01%)
Weekly:
1.27 (5.28%)
GOLD
4511.4
Daily:
112.1 (2.55%)
Weekly:
-89.3 (-1.94%)
COPPER
5.49
Daily:
0.07 (1.3%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.1%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-17
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,560,291
Change: -5,050
Managed Money
-44,628
Change: +18,354
-2.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-4,055
Change: -12,355
-0.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
161,461
Change: +5,589
10.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-133,401
Change: -9,527
-8.5% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-17
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,081,576
Change: +30,255
Managed Money
96,371
Change: +4,249
4.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
249,396
Change: +36,838
12.0% of OI
Swap Dealers
-512,025
Change: -23,020
-24.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 17.630 EUR/MWh (-0.204). JKM prices decreased to 20.525 USD/MMBtu (-0.475). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.895 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
17.630
-0.204Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-25
JKM Prices
20.525
-0.475Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-03-25
JKM-TTF Spread
2.895
16.42%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-25
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
21.0
19.5
18.1
16.6
15.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 17.630 |
| MAY 26 | 18.446 |
| JUN 26 | 18.452 |
| JUL 26 | 18.429 |
| AUG 26 | 18.442 |
| SEP 26 | 18.461 |
| OCT 26 | 18.439 |
| NOV 26 | 18.503 |
| DEC 26 | 18.550 |
| JAN 27 | 18.547 |
| FEB 27 | 18.406 |
| MAR 27 | 17.538 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 20.525 |
| JUN 26 | 19.250 |
| JUL 26 | 19.385 |
| AUG 26 | 19.225 |
| SEP 26 | 18.975 |
| OCT 26 | 18.735 |
| NOV 26 | 18.700 |
| DEC 26 | 19.025 |
| JAN 27 | 18.935 |
| FEB 27 | 18.705 |
| MAR 27 | 17.450 |
| APR 27 | 15.620 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-23 to 2026-03-24
Latest LNG Flow
18.90
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.10
(-0.5%)
30-Day Average
18.85
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | 19.20 | N/A |
| 2026-03-16 | 19.40 | +0.20 |
| 2026-03-17 | 19.10 | -0.30 |
| 2026-03-18 | 18.30 | -0.80 |
| 2026-03-19 | 18.90 | +0.60 |
| 2026-03-20 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-21 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-22 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-23 | 19.00 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-24 | 18.90 | -0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
137
Last Updated:
2026-03-25 23:47:35
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- Oil Falls on Signs of Progress in Resolution to Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Mideast Conflict to Hobble But Not Derail Canadian Economy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Jump on Fears of a Wider Conflict in the Middle East Barchart
- Oil Rebounds After 10% Drop as Market Grapples With Conflicting Signals — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Retreat On Middle East Conflict Seen Easing — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Bonds Decoupling From Oil Amid Longer Conflict Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.92
Closest Support:
$2.78
4.79% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
35.96% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.95
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-25 23:47:36
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.82%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | $2.98 | $2.78 | $3.18 |
| 2026-03-27 | $2.98 | $2.78 | $3.18 |
| 2026-03-28 | $2.99 | $2.79 | $3.19 |
| 2026-03-29 | $2.98 | $2.78 | $3.18 |
| 2026-03-30 | $2.98 | $2.78 | $3.18 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.82% for the next trading day (2026-03-26), reaching $2.98.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-26 and 2026-03-30.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions present neutral sentiment with a Fibonacci support at 2.78 and resistance at 3.97. The fundamental balance indicates a significant deficit of -25.82 BCFD, suggesting potential upward pressure on prices. However, the overall market sentiment is currently bearish, which may limit price rallies. Traders should be cautious of volatility, especially given the ML price forecast indicating a slight increase of 0.82% within the range of 2.78 to 3.18. Short-term opportunities may arise near the support level, but risks remain high due to overall bearish sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance of -25.82 BCFD indicates a tightening market, which may necessitate adjustments in production planning. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks from the bearish sentiment reflected in the news sentiment score of -0.200. With heating demand expected to be moderate due to current weather outlook, producers in regions with high heating degree days (e.g., Northeast: HDD 18.5) should align production with anticipated demand. Monitoring geopolitical developments is crucial, as they can significantly impact market dynamics and pricing.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market navigates a bearish sentiment environment. The weather outlook indicates moderate heating demand, which could stabilize prices short-term. However, the fundamental balance deficit of -25.82 BCFD suggests supply reliability risks, especially during peak heating periods. Consumers may want to consider procurement strategies that hedge against price volatility, particularly as the ML price forecast predicts a slight increase in the near term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, with an overall sentiment score of -0.200 reflecting concerns over geopolitical tensions and supply issues. The fundamental balance shows a significant deficit, indicating tightening conditions that could shift market dynamics. The weather outlook suggests a predominance of heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which may influence consumption patterns. Analysts should closely monitor these factors as they could lead to shifts in market outlook and pricing strategies.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.