Natural gas is stuck between a soft U.S. balance and a tight global LNG market, with Henry Hub holding the key $3.00–$3.247 zone after bouncing from $2.85 despite demand forecasts falling toward ~110 Bcf/d and production near ~110–112 Bcf/d. Storage around ~1.8–1.9 Tcf (near the 5-year average) and shoulder season dynamics typically pressure prices lower, reinforced by regional oversupply signals like Waha trading negative for 30+ days. However, global disruption is offsetting that weakness, with Qatar’s Ras Laffan (~20% of global LNG supply) offline and Hormuz risk keeping TTF (~€50–€60) and JKM ($20+) elevated. U.S. LNG exports near max capacity (~18.5–20 Bcf/d) effectively lock in strong demand, creating a floor under prices even as domestic fundamentals soften. If $3.00 breaks, the market likely targets $2.762, but if $3.247 holds and flips to support, $3.449 becomes the next upside magnet. Watch LNG feedgas flows, global benchmarks (TTF/JKM), storage injections, regional pricing like Waha, and the $3.00/$3.247 technical levels, as the market will swing between domestic oversupply and global tightness depending on which force takes control.
* Nat Gas followed crude with a precipitous drop after Trump’s declaration of victory in Iran. This technically has no impact on Nat Gas in the US - so right now this is likely a dip as NG is undervalued imho.
* Milder weather is bringing Natty back down….I see this as temporary as the supply-demand balance is not THAT bearish. This is a normal mild weather pattern and I expect $3 to be on the table again soon (but if 2.76 fails - look for 2.50)
* Nat Gas made a nice rebound above the key 2.924 resistance - opening the door for $3 again - I expect a follow through to $3.247 near term. May is trading about $0.05 less than April - so as we roll contracts - $3 is going to be where we center today.
* NG is back to using $3 as the key anchor - which is likely what we use as the basis for early April - this is likely the path to $3.247.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-27 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is navigating a delicate balance between a soft U.S. market and a tight global LNG landscape. Currently, Henry Hub prices hover around the critical $3.00–$3.247 range, buoyed by cooler weather forecasts and strong LNG export demand. While domestic production and demand sit near parity, regional oversupply, particularly in Waha, has pressed prices. Global disruptions, like Qatar’s LNG supply issues, add bullish pressure. Key levels to watch are $3.00 for potential downside and $3.247 for an upside breakout.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand increased by 8.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 25.82 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$3.04
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.02
MA(20): $3.05
Current Price is 3.04, 9 day MA 3.02, 20 day MA 3.05
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0929
Signal: -0.1142
Days since crossover: 19
MACD crossed the line 19 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.68
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.68 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 113,202
Avg (20d): 138,623
Ratio: 0.82
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 37.75
%D: 24.38
Stochastic %K: 37.75, %D: 24.38. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.96
+DI: 23.87
-DI: 18.51
ADX: 14.96 (+DI: 23.87, -DI: 18.51). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -62.25
Williams %R: -62.25 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.24
Middle: 3.05
Lower: 2.86
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.24, Middle: 3.05, Lower: 2.86
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 109.1 | 108.4 | 105.9 | 102.83 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Total Supply | 114.4 | 113.1 | 110.6 | 107.4 |
| Industrial Demand | 25.0 | 23.9 | 23.4 | 23.73 |
| Electric Power Demand | 33.2 | 30.9 | 27.6 | 29.23 |
| Residential & Commercial | 47.4 | 42.0 | 23.7 | 28.3 |
| LNG Exports | 19.2 | 19.3 | 16.4 | 14.27 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.1 | 7.4 |
| Total Demand | 140.22 | 131.52 | 104.3 | 108.87 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -25.82 | -18.42 | 6.3 | -1.47 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
91.0 HDD
-46.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
76.0 HDD
-35.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
10.0 CDD
+9.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
15.0 CDD
+8.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/19 | 16.0 | 20.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/20 | 11.0 | 20.0 | -9.0 |
| 03/21 | 9.0 | 20.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/22 | 10.0 | 20.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/23 | 16.0 | 20.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/24 | 17.0 | 19.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/25 | 12.0 | 18.0 | -6.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/27 | 15.0 | 17.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/28 | 19.0 | 16.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/29 | 13.0 | 16.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/30 | 7.0 | 16.0 | -9.0 |
| 03/31 | 6.0 | 16.0 | -10.0 |
| 04/01 | 7.0 | 15.0 | -8.0 |
| 04/02 | 9.0 | 15.0 | -6.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/20 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/21 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/22 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/25 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/27 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/28 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/29 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/30 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/31 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/01 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/02 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
High market volatility/risk aversion
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.19
Daily:
0.29 (0.29%)
Weekly:
1.24 (1.26%)
US_10Y
4.44
Daily:
0.02 (0.54%)
Weekly:
0.11 (2.45%)
SP500
6368.85
Daily:
-108.31 (-1.67%)
Weekly:
-212.15 (-3.22%)
VIX
31.05
Daily:
3.61 (13.16%)
Weekly:
4.9 (18.74%)
GOLD
4521.3
Daily:
145.8 (3.33%)
Weekly:
117.2 (2.66%)
COPPER
5.46
Daily:
0.02 (0.28%)
Weekly:
0.02 (0.4%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-24
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,504,052
Change: -56,239
Managed Money
-54,155
Change: -9,527
-3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-10,910
Change: -6,855
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
163,658
Change: +2,197
10.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-118,452
Change: +14,949
-7.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-24
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,002,065
Change: -79,511
Managed Money
94,336
Change: -2,035
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
267,288
Change: +17,892
13.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-534,298
Change: -22,273
-26.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 17.654 EUR/MWh (+0.105). JKM prices increased to 20.495 USD/MMBtu (+0.505). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.841 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
17.654
+0.105Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-27
JKM Prices
20.495
+0.505Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-03-27
JKM-TTF Spread
2.841
16.09%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-27
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
21.0
19.5
18.1
16.6
15.2
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 17.654 |
| MAY 26 | 18.803 |
| JUN 26 | 18.846 |
| JUL 26 | 18.856 |
| AUG 26 | 18.862 |
| SEP 26 | 18.909 |
| OCT 26 | 18.958 |
| NOV 26 | 19.029 |
| DEC 26 | 19.099 |
| JAN 27 | 19.025 |
| FEB 27 | 18.897 |
| MAR 27 | 17.993 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 20.495 |
| JUN 26 | 20.100 |
| JUL 26 | 20.250 |
| AUG 26 | 20.085 |
| SEP 26 | 19.815 |
| OCT 26 | 19.515 |
| NOV 26 | 19.500 |
| DEC 26 | 19.805 |
| JAN 27 | 19.590 |
| FEB 27 | 19.400 |
| MAR 27 | 18.085 |
| APR 27 | 15.655 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-25 to 2026-03-26
Latest LNG Flow
19.30
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.10
(+0.5%)
30-Day Average
18.86
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | 19.10 | N/A |
| 2026-03-18 | 18.30 | -0.80 |
| 2026-03-19 | 18.90 | +0.60 |
| 2026-03-20 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-21 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-22 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-23 | 19.00 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-24 | 18.90 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-25 | 19.20 | +0.30 |
| 2026-03-26 | 19.30 | +0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.067
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
140
Last Updated:
2026-03-27 23:47:56
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Thailand's Energy-Supply Crunch Likely Manageable — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Hawkish Monetary Policy Can't Help on Supply-Side Driven Inflation — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (12 articles)
- US natural gas futures rise 2% on Iran conflict's impact Reuters
- Oil Gains As Markets Unsure About Quick End to Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Singapore's Economy May Take Awhile to Feel Mideast Conflict Effects — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Singapore Central Bank Expected to Tighten Monetary Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Fed's Miran: Economy Can Bear Additional Support From Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Settles Lower As U.S. Makes Proposal to End Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Hawkish Monetary Policy Can't Help on Supply-Side Driven Inflation — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- RBNZ to Revisit Inflation Forecasts in Wake of Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Falls on Signs of Progress in Resolution to Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Mideast Conflict to Hobble But Not Derail Canadian Economy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Jump on Fears of a Wider Conflict in the Middle East Barchart
- Oil Rebounds After 10% Drop as Market Grapples With Conflicting Signals — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.04
Closest Support:
$2.78
8.55% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
30.59% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.0
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-27 23:47:57
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.05%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | $3.0 | $2.8 | $3.2 |
| 2026-03-28 | $3.01 | $2.81 | $3.21 |
| 2026-03-29 | $3.0 | $2.8 | $3.2 |
| 2026-03-30 | $3.0 | $2.8 | $3.21 |
| 2026-03-31 | $3.0 | $2.8 | $3.2 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2026-03-27), reaching $3.00.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-27 and 2026-03-31.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.78, while resistance is identified at 3.97. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.05%, with a predicted range of 2.8 to 3.2.
Traders should be cautious, as the fundamental balance shows a significant decrease of -7.40 BCFD, indicating potential volatility. The overall market sentiment remains neutral, suggesting limited immediate directional movement, but traders should remain alert for shifts in demand driven by weather forecasts.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market data suggests a need for cautious production planning. With a fundamental balance of -25.82 BCFD, producers may need to assess their output levels in response to changing demand, especially given the moderate heating demand anticipated in the residential and commercial sectors.
The news sentiment surrounding natural gas is relatively positive (+0.600), indicating that while there may be short-term challenges, long-term demand could remain stable. Producers should consider hedging strategies that account for potential price declines, particularly given the bearish technical outlook.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains neutral. With heating demand expected to dominate, especially in the Northeast (HDD: 27.5), there may be short-term spikes in natural gas prices.
However, the weather outlook indicates moderate heating demand overall, which could stabilize prices. Consumers should monitor the fundamental balance closely and consider procurement strategies that leverage current price ranges to mitigate risks associated with supply reliability.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a bearish outlook driven by a fundamental balance shift of -7.40 BCFD and a technical score of -2/5. The news sentiment remains stable, but the divergence between heating and cooling demand across regions suggests varying impacts on pricing.
Analysts should focus on the implications of regional demand patterns and weather forecasts on market dynamics. The ML price forecast indicates a slight downward trend, which could influence future trading strategies and market positioning.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.