Natural gas right now feels like a split-screen movie where the U.S. is lounging on a comfortable supply couch while the global LNG market is sprinting through a burning hallway. Prices clawed back to ~$3.09 on cooler forecasts and contract expiry shenanigans, but under the hood production is still humming at ~113.5 Bcf/d versus demand near ~82 Bcf/d, which isn’t exactly tight. Storage helped bulls breathe with a -54 Bcf draw, tightening the surplus, yet inventories still sit slightly above the 5-year average like a reminder that winter never fully showed up. Then the plot twist: Qatar’s Ras Laffan damage (impacting ~20% of global LNG) and Hormuz disruptions have turned the global market into a scarcity panic, dragging U.S. molecules into international relevance. Europe sitting at just 28% storage is basically flashing a “need gas ASAP” sign to every cargo on the water. So the path forward is a tug-of-war: if LNG chaos persists we grind toward $3.247–$3.449, but if U.S. production stays bloated and weather underdelivers, this thing can just as easily sink back toward $3.00 and remind everyone that fundamentals still matter… eventually.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-28 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently navigating a dual narrative: domestically, the U.S. enjoys a comfortable supply with production at ~113.5 Bcf/d and storage levels slightly above historical averages. However, global LNG demand is surging, driven by European storage at just 28% and disruptions in Qatar and the Strait of Hormuz. Prices recently rebounded to ~$3.09, buoyed by cooler weather forecasts and a notable -54 Bcf storage draw. The market is poised for a tug-of-war; persistent global chaos could drive prices higher, while robust U.S. production may drag them back down.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 2.8 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 10.59 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 18.03 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$3.1
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.03
MA(20): $3.05
Current Price is 3.1, 9 day MA 3.03, 20 day MA 3.05
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0881
Signal: -0.1132
Days since crossover: 19
MACD crossed the line 19 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 48.69
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 48.69 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 61,382
Avg (20d): 136,032
Ratio: 0.45
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 50.99
%D: 28.8
Stochastic %K: 50.99, %D: 28.8. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 15.24
+DI: 25.78
-DI: 18.44
ADX: 15.24 (+DI: 25.78, -DI: 18.44). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -49.01
Williams %R: -49.01 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 3.25
Middle: 3.05
Lower: 2.86
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 3.25, Middle: 3.05, Lower: 2.86
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 109.1 | 105.5 | 102.6 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 3.5 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.6 |
| Total Supply | 111.6 | 114.4 | 110.8 | 107.27 |
| Industrial Demand | 24.8 | 25.0 | 23.7 | 23.83 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.1 | 33.2 | 27.7 | 29.03 |
| Residential & Commercial | 39.2 | 47.4 | 26.5 | 28.67 |
| LNG Exports | 19.5 | 19.2 | 16.4 | 14.1 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.2 | 7.43 |
| Total Demand | 129.63 | 140.22 | 107.7 | 108.93 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -18.03 | -25.82 | 3.1 | -1.67 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
83.0 HDD
-52.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
82.0 HDD
-27.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
11.0 CDD
+9.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
14.0 CDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/20 | 11.0 | 20.0 | -9.0 |
| 03/21 | 9.0 | 20.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/22 | 10.0 | 20.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/23 | 16.0 | 20.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/24 | 17.0 | 19.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/25 | 12.0 | 18.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/26 | 8.0 | 18.0 | -10.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/28 | 19.0 | 16.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/29 | 13.0 | 16.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/30 | 7.0 | 16.0 | -9.0 |
| 03/31 | 5.0 | 16.0 | -11.0 |
| 04/01 | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/02 | 15.0 | 15.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/03 | 13.0 | 15.0 | -2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/20 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/21 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/22 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/25 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/26 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/28 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/29 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/30 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/31 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/01 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/02 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/03 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
High market volatility/risk aversion
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.15
Daily:
0.25 (0.25%)
Weekly:
1.2 (1.21%)
US_10Y
4.44
Daily:
0.02 (0.54%)
Weekly:
0.11 (2.45%)
SP500
6368.85
Daily:
-108.31 (-1.67%)
Weekly:
-212.15 (-3.22%)
VIX
31.05
Daily:
3.61 (13.16%)
Weekly:
4.9 (18.74%)
GOLD
4492.0
Daily:
116.5 (2.66%)
Weekly:
87.9 (2.0%)
COPPER
5.47
Daily:
0.02 (0.38%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.51%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-24
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,504,052
Change: -56,239
Managed Money
-54,155
Change: -9,527
-3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-10,910
Change: -6,855
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
163,658
Change: +2,197
10.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-118,452
Change: +14,949
-7.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-24
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,002,065
Change: -79,511
Managed Money
94,336
Change: -2,035
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
267,288
Change: +17,892
13.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-534,298
Change: -22,273
-26.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 17.619 EUR/MWh (-0.035). JKM prices decreased to 20.395 USD/MMBtu (-0.100). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.776 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
17.619
-0.035Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-28
JKM Prices
20.395
-0.100Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-03-28
JKM-TTF Spread
2.776
15.76%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-28
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.9
19.4
18.0
16.6
15.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 17.619 |
| MAY 26 | 18.425 |
| JUN 26 | 18.467 |
| JUL 26 | 18.481 |
| AUG 26 | 18.501 |
| SEP 26 | 18.565 |
| OCT 26 | 18.620 |
| NOV 26 | 18.700 |
| DEC 26 | 18.789 |
| JAN 27 | 18.748 |
| FEB 27 | 18.636 |
| MAR 27 | 17.898 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 20.395 |
| JUN 26 | 19.740 |
| JUL 26 | 19.905 |
| AUG 26 | 19.720 |
| SEP 26 | 19.460 |
| OCT 26 | 19.095 |
| NOV 26 | 19.105 |
| DEC 26 | 19.390 |
| JAN 27 | 19.105 |
| FEB 27 | 18.955 |
| MAR 27 | 17.870 |
| APR 27 | 15.605 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-26 to 2026-03-27
Latest LNG Flow
19.00
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.30
(-1.6%)
30-Day Average
18.87
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | 18.30 | N/A |
| 2026-03-19 | 18.90 | +0.60 |
| 2026-03-20 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-21 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-22 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-23 | 19.00 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-24 | 18.90 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-25 | 19.20 | +0.30 |
| 2026-03-26 | 19.30 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-27 | 19.00 | -0.30 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
100
Last Updated:
2026-03-28 23:47:31
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Thailand's Energy-Supply Crunch Likely Manageable — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Hawkish Monetary Policy Can't Help on Supply-Side Driven Inflation — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- Oil Gains As Markets Unsure About Quick End to Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Singapore's Economy May Take Awhile to Feel Mideast Conflict Effects — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Singapore Central Bank Expected to Tighten Monetary Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Fed's Miran: Economy Can Bear Additional Support From Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Settles Lower As U.S. Makes Proposal to End Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Hawkish Monetary Policy Can't Help on Supply-Side Driven Inflation — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$3.1
Closest Support:
$2.78
10.32% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
28.06% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.1
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-28 23:47:31
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.2%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | $3.1 | $2.9 | $3.31 |
| 2026-03-29 | $3.11 | $2.9 | $3.31 |
| 2026-03-30 | $3.1 | $2.89 | $3.3 |
| 2026-03-31 | $3.09 | $2.89 | $3.3 |
| 2026-04-01 | $3.09 | $2.88 | $3.29 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.20% for the next trading day (2026-03-28), reaching $3.10.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-28 and 2026-04-01.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The market is currently exhibiting a neutral technical sentiment with a score of -1/5, indicating potential indecision among traders. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.78, while the resistance is at 3.97. Traders should be cautious as the fundamental balance is at -18.03 BCFD with a significant change of +7.79, suggesting increased supply pressure.
Weather forecasts indicate moderate heating demand and low cooling demand, which may keep prices stable in the short term. The ML price forecast suggests a slight upward movement of 0.20% with a range of 2.9 to 3.31. Traders should watch for volatility around the resistance level, as bearish sentiment in the news may create short-term opportunities or risks.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance of -18.03 BCFD indicates a tightening supply situation, which may influence production planning. Producers should consider adjusting output levels in response to the moderate heating demand expected in residential and commercial sectors. The bearish market sentiment reflected in the news may impact pricing power, necessitating effective hedging strategies to mitigate risks from potential price declines.
With geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil prices, producers should stay informed on global developments that could disrupt supply chains. The sentiment surrounding crude oil is notably negative, which could further influence operational decisions and market positioning.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should be aware of potential cost fluctuations due to the tightening fundamental balance of -18.03 BCFD, which points to a potential increase in prices. The moderate heating demand forecast suggests that utility costs may rise, especially during peak heating periods.
The low cooling demand may provide some relief in the short term, but consumers should consider procurement strategies that account for potential supply reliability risks. Monitoring market sentiment is crucial, as the overall market sentiment could impact future pricing and availability.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment with an overall sentiment score of -0.200. The fundamental balance indicates a significant shift with a change of +7.79, suggesting that supply is outpacing demand. This could lead to downward pressure on prices in the near term.
The weather outlook shows a predominance of heating demand, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which could influence regional supply dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor price movements around the Fibonacci levels of 2.78 and 3.97 as indicators of market sentiment shifts. The ML price forecast suggests a slight uptick, but the prevailing bearish news sentiment could counteract this potential.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.