Natural gas right now feels like a split-screen movie where the U.S. is lounging on a comfortable supply couch while the global LNG market is sprinting through a burning hallway. Prices clawed back to ~$3.09 on cooler forecasts and contract expiry shenanigans, but under the hood production is still humming at ~113.5 Bcf/d versus demand near ~82 Bcf/d, which isn’t exactly tight. Storage helped bulls breathe with a -54 Bcf draw, tightening the surplus, yet inventories still sit slightly above the 5-year average like a reminder that winter never fully showed up. Then the plot twist: Qatar’s Ras Laffan damage (impacting ~20% of global LNG) and Hormuz disruptions have turned the global market into a scarcity panic, dragging U.S. molecules into international relevance. Europe sitting at just 28% storage is basically flashing a “need gas ASAP” sign to every cargo on the water. So the path forward is a tug-of-war: if LNG chaos persists we grind toward $3.247–$3.449, but if U.S. production stays bloated and weather underdelivers, this thing can just as easily sink back toward $3.00 and remind everyone that fundamentals still matter… eventually.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-29 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are currently in a tug-of-war, trading around $3.09 amid cooler forecasts and a -54 Bcf draw tightening surplus. U.S. production remains robust at ~113.5 Bcf/d against demand near ~82 Bcf/d, with inventories still above the 5-year average. However, global LNG chaos—spurred by damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—has elevated U.S. gas's international relevance. If this LNG scarcity persists, prices could rise toward $3.247–$3.449; otherwise, they may drift back near $3.00 as fundamentals assert themselves.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 2.8 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 10.59 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 18.03 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.96
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.02
MA(20): $3.05
Current Price is 2.96, 9 day MA 3.02, 20 day MA 3.05
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.088
Signal: -0.1082
Days since crossover: 20
MACD crossed the line 20 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 44.5
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 44.5 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 8,706
Avg (20d): 127,740
Ratio: 0.07
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 22.53
%D: 31.65
Stochastic %K: 22.53, %D: 31.65. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.67
+DI: 23.82
-DI: 20.59
ADX: 14.67 (+DI: 23.82, -DI: 20.59). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -77.47
Williams %R: -77.47 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.25
Middle: 3.05
Lower: 2.86
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.25, Middle: 3.05, Lower: 2.86
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 109.1 | 105.5 | 102.6 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 3.5 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.6 |
| Total Supply | 111.6 | 114.4 | 110.8 | 107.27 |
| Industrial Demand | 24.8 | 25.0 | 23.7 | 23.83 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.1 | 33.2 | 27.7 | 29.03 |
| Residential & Commercial | 39.2 | 47.4 | 26.5 | 28.67 |
| LNG Exports | 19.5 | 19.2 | 16.4 | 14.1 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.2 | 7.43 |
| Total Demand | 129.63 | 140.22 | 107.7 | 108.93 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -18.03 | -25.82 | 3.1 | -1.67 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
87.0 HDD
-45.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
77.0 HDD
-31.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
11.0 CDD
+8.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
15.0 CDD
+8.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/21 | 9.0 | 20.0 | -11.0 |
| 03/22 | 10.0 | 20.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/23 | 16.0 | 20.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/24 | 17.0 | 19.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/25 | 12.0 | 18.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/26 | 8.0 | 18.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/27 | 15.0 | 17.0 | -2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/29 | 13.0 | 16.0 | -3.0 |
| 03/30 | 7.0 | 16.0 | -9.0 |
| 03/31 | 5.0 | 16.0 | -11.0 |
| 04/01 | 11.0 | 15.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/02 | 16.0 | 15.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/03 | 14.0 | 15.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/04 | 11.0 | 15.0 | -4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/21 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/22 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/25 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/26 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/27 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/29 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/30 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/31 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/01 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/02 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/03 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/04 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
High market volatility/risk aversion
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.1
Daily:
-0.06 (-0.05%)
Weekly:
0.67 (0.67%)
US_10Y
4.44
Daily:
0.02 (0.54%)
Weekly:
0.11 (2.45%)
SP500
6368.85
Daily:
-108.31 (-1.67%)
Weekly:
-212.15 (-3.22%)
VIX
31.05
Daily:
3.61 (13.16%)
Weekly:
4.9 (18.74%)
GOLD
4534.1
Daily:
42.1 (0.94%)
Weekly:
134.8 (3.06%)
COPPER
5.5
Daily:
0.03 (0.61%)
Weekly:
0.08 (1.44%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-24
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,504,052
Change: -56,239
Managed Money
-54,155
Change: -9,527
-3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-10,910
Change: -6,855
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
163,658
Change: +2,197
10.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-118,452
Change: +14,949
-7.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-24
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,002,065
Change: -79,511
Managed Money
94,336
Change: -2,035
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
267,288
Change: +17,892
13.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-534,298
Change: -22,273
-26.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 17.619 EUR/MWh (-0.035). JKM prices decreased to 20.395 USD/MMBtu (-0.100). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.776 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
17.619
-0.035Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-29
JKM Prices
20.395
-0.100Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-03-29
JKM-TTF Spread
2.776
15.76%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-29
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.9
19.4
18.0
16.6
15.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 17.619 |
| MAY 26 | 18.425 |
| JUN 26 | 18.467 |
| JUL 26 | 18.481 |
| AUG 26 | 18.501 |
| SEP 26 | 18.565 |
| OCT 26 | 18.620 |
| NOV 26 | 18.700 |
| DEC 26 | 18.789 |
| JAN 27 | 18.748 |
| FEB 27 | 18.636 |
| MAR 27 | 17.898 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 20.395 |
| JUN 26 | 19.740 |
| JUL 26 | 19.905 |
| AUG 26 | 19.720 |
| SEP 26 | 19.460 |
| OCT 26 | 19.095 |
| NOV 26 | 19.105 |
| DEC 26 | 19.390 |
| JAN 27 | 19.105 |
| FEB 27 | 18.955 |
| MAR 27 | 17.870 |
| APR 27 | 15.605 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-27 to 2026-03-28
Latest LNG Flow
19.50
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.50
(+2.6%)
30-Day Average
18.89
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | 18.90 | N/A |
| 2026-03-20 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-21 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-22 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-23 | 19.00 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-24 | 18.90 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-25 | 19.20 | +0.30 |
| 2026-03-26 | 19.30 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-27 | 19.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-03-28 | 19.50 | +0.50 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
76
Last Updated:
2026-03-29 23:47:56
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- Oil Gains As Markets Unsure About Quick End to Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Singapore's Economy May Take Awhile to Feel Mideast Conflict Effects — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Singapore Central Bank Expected to Tighten Monetary Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.96
Closest Support:
$2.78
6.08% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
34.12% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$3.1
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-29 23:47:57
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.2%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | $3.1 | $2.9 | $3.31 |
| 2026-03-29 | $3.11 | $2.9 | $3.31 |
| 2026-03-30 | $3.1 | $2.89 | $3.3 |
| 2026-03-31 | $3.09 | $2.89 | $3.3 |
| 2026-04-01 | $3.09 | $2.88 | $3.29 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.20% for the next trading day (2026-03-28), reaching $3.10.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-28 and 2026-04-01.
- The average confidence interval width is ~13.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. Traders should pay attention to the Fibonacci support level at 2.78 and resistance at 3.97. The ML price forecast indicates a slight uptick of 0.20%, suggesting potential short-term volatility. Consider monitoring for price movements near these key levels, as they may present opportunities or risks in the market.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a fundamental balance of -18.03 BCFD and a significant change of +7.79, producers may need to reassess their production planning. The overall market sentiment is positive, which could support pricing stability. However, the current heating demand is moderate across regions, indicating a need for careful hedging strategies to mitigate potential price fluctuations in the coming weeks.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should be aware of moderate heating demand expected in residential and commercial sectors, which may influence supply reliability. The fundamental balance shows a significant change, indicating potential cost fluctuations in natural gas. It may be prudent to consider procurement strategies or hedging to manage exposure to price volatility, especially as the market sentiment remains positive.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a complex picture with a moderately bearish technical outlook juxtaposed against an overall market sentiment. Key drivers include a fundamental balance of -18.03 BCFD and predominantly heating demand across regions. Analysts should keep an eye on geopolitical developments affecting crude oil and their potential ripple effects on natural gas pricing, as these factors may shift the outlook significantly.
Disclaimer: This response does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor.