Natural gas right now feels like a split-screen movie where the U.S. is lounging on a comfortable supply couch while the global LNG market is sprinting through a burning hallway. Prices clawed back to ~$3.09 on cooler forecasts and contract expiry shenanigans, but under the hood production is still humming at ~113.5 Bcf/d versus demand near ~82 Bcf/d, which isn’t exactly tight. Storage helped bulls breathe with a -54 Bcf draw, tightening the surplus, yet inventories still sit slightly above the 5-year average like a reminder that winter never fully showed up. Then the plot twist: Qatar’s Ras Laffan damage (impacting ~20% of global LNG) and Hormuz disruptions have turned the global market into a scarcity panic, dragging U.S. molecules into international relevance. Europe sitting at just 28% storage is basically flashing a “need gas ASAP” sign to every cargo on the water. So the path forward is a tug-of-war: if LNG chaos persists we grind toward $3.247–$3.449, but if U.S. production stays bloated and weather underdelivers, this thing can just as easily sink back toward $3.00 and remind everyone that fundamentals still matter… eventually.
* Monday brought Natty back down to below the critical 2.924 level which is the lifeline for bulls - below this level opens up 2.762 and 2.525 as potential targets for next steps. Objectively I believe NG is mispriced at this level and is below the fundamental supply/demand value level.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-30 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas currently presents a mixed picture: U.S. production remains robust at ~113.5 Bcf/d, while demand lags at ~82 Bcf/d, keeping supply comfortable. Recent price declines to ~$3.09 reflect seasonal weather conditions and inventory levels slightly above the 5-year average. However, global LNG disruptions from Qatar and geopolitical tensions could spark volatility, pushing prices toward $3.25-$3.45. Watch for the critical $2.924 level; a drop below could signal further declines. Stay tuned for how weather and geopolitics may influence the market!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 2.8 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 10.59 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 18.03 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$2.84
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $3.0
MA(20): $3.05
Current Price is 2.84, 9 day MA 3.0, 20 day MA 3.05
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0974
Signal: -0.1101
Days since crossover: 20
MACD crossed the line 20 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 41.47
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 41.47 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 6,009
Avg (20d): 131,156
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 6.81
%D: 26.41
Stochastic %K: 6.81, %D: 26.41. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.42
+DI: 23.47
-DI: 21.76
ADX: 14.42 (+DI: 23.47, -DI: 21.76). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -93.19
Williams %R: -93.19 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.26
Middle: 3.05
Lower: 2.84
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.26, Middle: 3.05, Lower: 2.84
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 109.1 | 105.5 | 102.6 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 3.5 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.6 |
| Total Supply | 111.6 | 114.4 | 110.8 | 107.27 |
| Industrial Demand | 24.8 | 25.0 | 23.7 | 23.83 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.1 | 33.2 | 27.7 | 29.03 |
| Residential & Commercial | 39.2 | 47.4 | 26.5 | 28.67 |
| LNG Exports | 19.5 | 19.2 | 16.4 | 14.1 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.2 | 7.43 |
| Total Demand | 129.63 | 140.22 | 107.7 | 108.93 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -18.03 | -25.82 | 3.1 | -1.67 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
97.0 HDD
-31.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
62.0 HDD
-46.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
10.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
18.0 CDD
+11.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/22 | 10.0 | 20.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/23 | 16.0 | 20.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/24 | 17.0 | 19.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/25 | 12.0 | 18.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/26 | 8.0 | 18.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/27 | 15.0 | 17.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/28 | 19.0 | 16.0 | +3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/30 | 6.0 | 16.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/31 | 5.0 | 16.0 | -11.0 |
| 04/01 | 9.0 | 15.0 | -6.0 |
| 04/02 | 12.0 | 15.0 | -3.0 |
| 04/03 | 11.0 | 15.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/04 | 9.0 | 15.0 | -6.0 |
| 04/05 | 10.0 | 16.0 | -6.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/22 | 2.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 |
| 03/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/25 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/26 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/27 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/28 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/30 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/31 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/01 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/02 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/03 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/04 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/05 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
High market volatility/risk aversion
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.43
Daily:
0.28 (0.28%)
Weekly:
1.0 (1.01%)
US_10Y
4.34
Daily:
-0.1 (-2.21%)
Weekly:
-0.05 (-1.14%)
SP500
6343.72
Daily:
-25.13 (-0.39%)
Weekly:
-212.65 (-3.24%)
VIX
30.61
Daily:
-0.44 (-1.42%)
Weekly:
3.66 (13.58%)
GOLD
4592.6
Daily:
100.6 (2.24%)
Weekly:
193.3 (4.39%)
COPPER
5.51
Daily:
0.04 (0.73%)
Weekly:
0.08 (1.56%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-24
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,504,052
Change: -56,239
Managed Money
-54,155
Change: -9,527
-3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-10,910
Change: -6,855
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
163,658
Change: +2,197
10.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-118,452
Change: +14,949
-7.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-24
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,002,065
Change: -79,511
Managed Money
94,336
Change: -2,035
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
267,288
Change: +17,892
13.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-534,298
Change: -22,273
-26.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 17.619 EUR/MWh (-0.035). JKM prices decreased to 20.395 USD/MMBtu (-0.100). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.776 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
17.619
-0.035Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-30
JKM Prices
20.395
-0.100Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-03-30
JKM-TTF Spread
2.776
15.76%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-30
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.9
19.4
18.0
16.6
15.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 17.619 |
| MAY 26 | 18.425 |
| JUN 26 | 18.467 |
| JUL 26 | 18.481 |
| AUG 26 | 18.501 |
| SEP 26 | 18.565 |
| OCT 26 | 18.620 |
| NOV 26 | 18.700 |
| DEC 26 | 18.789 |
| JAN 27 | 18.748 |
| FEB 27 | 18.636 |
| MAR 27 | 17.898 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 20.395 |
| JUN 26 | 19.740 |
| JUL 26 | 19.905 |
| AUG 26 | 19.720 |
| SEP 26 | 19.460 |
| OCT 26 | 19.095 |
| NOV 26 | 19.105 |
| DEC 26 | 19.390 |
| JAN 27 | 19.105 |
| FEB 27 | 18.955 |
| MAR 27 | 17.870 |
| APR 27 | 15.605 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-02-28 to 2026-03-29
Latest LNG Flow
19.50
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.00
(+0.0%)
30-Day Average
18.91
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | 18.90 | N/A |
| 2026-03-21 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-22 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-23 | 19.00 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-24 | 18.90 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-25 | 19.20 | +0.30 |
| 2026-03-26 | 19.30 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-27 | 19.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-03-28 | 19.50 | +0.50 |
| 2026-03-29 | 19.50 | +0.00 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.233
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
75
Last Updated:
2026-03-30 23:47:40
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Oil Rises on Supply-Disruption Concerns Spurred by Widening Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Australian National Cabinet Meeting to Focus on Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Higher Brazil Sugar Production Weighs on Prices Barchart
- Sugar Prices Slip on Higher Brazil Sugar Production Barchart
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.84
Closest Support:
$2.78
2.11% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
39.79% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.89
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-30 23:47:41
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.84%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | $2.91 | $2.71 | $3.12 |
| 2026-04-01 | $2.87 | $2.66 | $3.07 |
| 2026-04-02 | $2.89 | $2.69 | $3.1 |
| 2026-04-03 | $2.88 | $2.68 | $3.09 |
| 2026-04-04 | $2.9 | $2.7 | $3.1 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.84% for the next trading day (2026-03-31), reaching $2.91.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-31 and 2026-04-04.
- The average confidence interval width is ~14.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market data indicates a neutral technical outlook with a score of -1/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.78 and resistance at 3.97, which may lead to price fluctuations within this range.
The ML price forecast suggests a potential increase of 0.84% for the next day, with a trading range between 2.71 and 3.12. Given the bullish overall market sentiment and significant heating demand due to the weather outlook, traders should be prepared for short-term opportunities while managing volatility risks.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a negative balance of -18.03 BCFD, which has recently shifted positively by +7.79. This indicates a tightening supply situation, potentially affecting production planning. Producers should consider adjusting output levels to align with the changing demand landscape, particularly in heating.
The market sentiment remains strong, particularly for crude oil, influenced by geopolitical concerns and supply disruptions. Companies may want to explore hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and unexpected supply chain issues.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With a high demand for heating indicated by the weather outlook, consumers should anticipate potential cost fluctuations in natural gas and heating oil. The expected high heating demand may lead to tighter supply conditions, raising procurement costs.
It is advisable for consumers to evaluate their current contracts and consider procurement strategies that account for potential price increases. The overall market sentiment suggests that maintaining flexibility in procurement could be beneficial in the face of rising prices.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment with a sentiment score of +0.233, reflecting positive outlooks across various commodities, particularly crude oil. The combination of geopolitical tensions and a tightening supply situation suggests that the market may be poised for upward shifts.
Analysts should closely monitor the fundamental balance and weather forecasts, as these are key driving factors influencing market dynamics. The ML price forecasts indicating an upward trend further support the bullish outlook, suggesting potential shifts in market strategies and pricing models in the near future.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.