Natural gas right now feels like a split-screen movie where the U.S. is lounging on a comfortable supply couch while the global LNG market is sprinting through a burning hallway. Prices clawed back to ~$3.09 on cooler forecasts and contract expiry shenanigans, but under the hood production is still humming at ~113.5 Bcf/d versus demand near ~82 Bcf/d, which isn’t exactly tight. Storage helped bulls breathe with a -54 Bcf draw, tightening the surplus, yet inventories still sit slightly above the 5-year average like a reminder that winter never fully showed up. Then the plot twist: Qatar’s Ras Laffan damage (impacting ~20% of global LNG) and Hormuz disruptions have turned the global market into a scarcity panic, dragging U.S. molecules into international relevance. Europe sitting at just 28% storage is basically flashing a “need gas ASAP” sign to every cargo on the water. So the path forward is a tug-of-war: if LNG chaos persists we grind toward $3.247–$3.449, but if U.S. production stays bloated and weather underdelivers, this thing can just as easily sink back toward $3.00 and remind everyone that fundamentals still matter… eventually.
* Monday brought Natty back down to below the critical 2.924 level which is the lifeline for bulls - below this level opens up 2.762 and 2.525 as potential targets for next steps. Objectively I believe NG is mispriced at this level and is below the fundamental supply/demand value level.
* Tuesday was a flat trading day as we ended up about where we started but tested the high 2.90s by the bulls and the low 2.80s by the bears…..ending up at 2.89. NG is simply waiting on weather…
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-03-31 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas markets are reminiscent of a split-screen drama, with the U.S. enjoying a comfy supply surplus while global LNG faces chaos. Prices recently dipped to ~$3.09, despite production humming at 113.5 Bcf/d against demand of 82 Bcf/d. A -54 Bcf storage draw tightened surpluses, but inventories remain above the 5-year average. With Qatar’s Ras Laffan damage and European storage at just 28%, expect volatility: if LNG chaos continues, we might see prices rise toward $3.25-$3.45. But bloated U.S. production could drag us back to $3.00, reminding us that fundamentals still matter.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 2.8 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 10.59 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 18.03 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$2.88
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.99
MA(20): $3.04
Current Price is 2.88, 9 day MA 2.99, 20 day MA 3.04
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.097
Signal: -0.1068
Days since crossover: 21
MACD crossed the line 21 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.57
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.57 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,819
Avg (20d): 126,047
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 6.87
%D: 21.86
Stochastic %K: 6.87, %D: 21.86. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.14
+DI: 23.61
-DI: 20.41
ADX: 14.14 (+DI: 23.61, -DI: 20.41). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -93.13
Williams %R: -93.13 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.26
Middle: 3.04
Lower: 2.83
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.26, Middle: 3.04, Lower: 2.83
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.1 | 109.1 | 105.5 | 102.6 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 3.5 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.6 |
| Total Supply | 111.6 | 114.4 | 110.8 | 107.27 |
| Industrial Demand | 24.8 | 25.0 | 23.7 | 23.83 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.1 | 33.2 | 27.7 | 29.03 |
| Residential & Commercial | 39.2 | 47.4 | 26.5 | 28.67 |
| LNG Exports | 19.5 | 19.2 | 16.4 | 14.1 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.2 | 7.43 |
| Total Demand | 129.63 | 140.22 | 107.7 | 108.93 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -18.03 | -25.82 | 3.1 | -1.67 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
102.0 HDD
-22.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
64.0 HDD
-44.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
9.0 CDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
18.0 CDD
+11.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/23 | 16.0 | 20.0 | -4.0 |
| 03/24 | 17.0 | 19.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/25 | 12.0 | 18.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/26 | 8.0 | 18.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/27 | 15.0 | 17.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/28 | 19.0 | 16.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/29 | 15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/31 | 5.0 | 16.0 | -11.0 |
| 04/01 | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/02 | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/03 | 8.0 | 15.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/04 | 7.0 | 15.0 | -8.0 |
| 04/05 | 11.0 | 16.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/06 | 13.0 | 16.0 | -3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/25 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/26 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/27 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/28 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/29 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/31 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/01 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/02 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/03 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/04 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/05 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/06 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.81
Daily:
-0.7 (-0.7%)
Weekly:
0.21 (0.21%)
US_10Y
4.31
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.71%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.39%)
SP500
6528.52
Daily:
184.8 (2.91%)
Weekly:
-63.38 (-0.96%)
VIX
25.25
Daily:
-5.36 (-17.51%)
Weekly:
-0.08 (-0.32%)
GOLD
4714.6
Daily:
188.6 (4.17%)
Weekly:
164.8 (3.62%)
COPPER
5.64
Daily:
0.16 (2.93%)
Weekly:
0.11 (1.94%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-24
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,504,052
Change: -56,239
Managed Money
-54,155
Change: -9,527
-3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-10,910
Change: -6,855
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
163,658
Change: +2,197
10.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-118,452
Change: +14,949
-7.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-24
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,002,065
Change: -79,511
Managed Money
94,336
Change: -2,035
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
267,288
Change: +17,892
13.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-534,298
Change: -22,273
-26.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 17.625 EUR/MWh (+0.006). JKM prices increased to 20.530 USD/MMBtu (+0.135). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.905 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
17.625
+0.006Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-03-31
JKM Prices
20.530
+0.135Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-03-31
JKM-TTF Spread
2.905
16.48%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-03-31
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
21.0
19.5
18.1
16.6
15.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 17.625 |
| MAY 26 | 18.463 |
| JUN 26 | 18.489 |
| JUL 26 | 18.493 |
| AUG 26 | 18.519 |
| SEP 26 | 18.561 |
| OCT 26 | 18.590 |
| NOV 26 | 18.670 |
| DEC 26 | 18.755 |
| JAN 27 | 18.741 |
| FEB 27 | 18.643 |
| MAR 27 | 17.840 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 20.530 |
| JUN 26 | 19.745 |
| JUL 26 | 19.920 |
| AUG 26 | 19.730 |
| SEP 26 | 19.490 |
| OCT 26 | 19.080 |
| NOV 26 | 19.050 |
| DEC 26 | 19.360 |
| JAN 27 | 19.095 |
| FEB 27 | 18.950 |
| MAR 27 | 17.825 |
| APR 27 | 15.585 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-01 to 2026-03-30
Latest LNG Flow
19.40
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.10
(-0.5%)
30-Day Average
18.92
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | 18.90 | N/A |
| 2026-03-22 | 18.90 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-23 | 19.00 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-24 | 18.90 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-25 | 19.20 | +0.30 |
| 2026-03-26 | 19.30 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-27 | 19.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-03-28 | 19.50 | +0.50 |
| 2026-03-29 | 19.50 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | 19.40 | -0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.375
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
85
Last Updated:
2026-03-31 23:47:44
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
- Longer-Term Supply Shock a Risk for Economies — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises on Supply-Disruption Concerns Spurred by Widening Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Australian National Cabinet Meeting to Focus on Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.88
Closest Support:
$2.78
3.47% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
37.85% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.88
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-31 23:47:44
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.41%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | $2.84 | $2.64 | $3.05 |
| 2026-04-02 | $2.86 | $2.66 | $3.07 |
| 2026-04-03 | $2.86 | $2.65 | $3.06 |
| 2026-04-04 | $2.87 | $2.67 | $3.08 |
| 2026-04-05 | $2.87 | $2.67 | $3.07 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.41% for the next trading day (2026-04-01), reaching $2.84.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 1.1% between 2026-04-01 and 2026-04-05.
- The average confidence interval width is ~14.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market data presents a neutral technical outlook with a score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support is identified at 2.78 and resistance at 3.97, suggesting a potential range for price movement. Given the fundamental balance of -18.03 BCFD and a recent increase of +7.79, traders should be aware of potential volatility in the near term.
The ML price forecast indicates a downward trend of 1.41%, with a predicted range of 2.64 to 3.05. This suggests short-term opportunities for traders to capitalize on fluctuations around these levels, but caution is advised due to the neutral sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market sentiment is slightly bullish, with a sentiment score of +0.375. However, the fundamental balance indicates a significant negative figure, which may affect production planning. Producers should consider adjusting their output based on the prevailing high heating demand forecast, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions.
Given the geopolitical factors highlighted in the news, such as potential supply disruptions due to conflicts, producers should develop hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and supply reliability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement due to the anticipated high heating demand across various regions. The fundamental balance of -18.03 BCFD suggests that supply may tighten, impacting prices.
With the ML price forecast indicating a downward trend, consumers may find a temporary reprieve in costs; however, the overall market sentiment remains bullish. It is advisable for consumers to consider hedging options to manage risks associated with potential price increases in the longer term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market presents a complex picture characterized by a neutral technical interpretation and a bearish fundamental balance. The high heating demand forecast indicates that the market dynamics are heavily influenced by seasonal factors, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions.
While the overall market sentiment is bullish, the potential for price declines as indicated by the ML price forecast suggests that analysts should monitor closely for shifts in supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical developments that could alter the outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.