Natural gas right now feels like a split-screen movie where the U.S. is lounging on a comfortable supply couch while the global LNG market is sprinting through a burning hallway. Prices clawed back to ~$3.09 on cooler forecasts and contract expiry shenanigans, but under the hood production is still humming at ~113.5 Bcf/d versus demand near ~82 Bcf/d, which isn’t exactly tight. Storage helped bulls breathe with a -54 Bcf draw, tightening the surplus, yet inventories still sit slightly above the 5-year average like a reminder that winter never fully showed up. Then the plot twist: Qatar’s Ras Laffan damage (impacting ~20% of global LNG) and Hormuz disruptions have turned the global market into a scarcity panic, dragging U.S. molecules into international relevance. Europe sitting at just 28% storage is basically flashing a “need gas ASAP” sign to every cargo on the water. So the path forward is a tug-of-war: if LNG chaos persists we grind toward $3.247–$3.449, but if U.S. production stays bloated and weather underdelivers, this thing can just as easily sink back toward $3.00 and remind everyone that fundamentals still matter… eventually.
* Monday brought Natty back down to below the critical 2.924 level which is the lifeline for bulls - below this level opens up 2.762 and 2.525 as potential targets for next steps. Objectively I believe NG is mispriced at this level and is below the fundamental supply/demand value level.
* Tuesday was a flat trading day as we ended up about where we started but tested the high 2.90s by the bulls and the low 2.80s by the bears…..ending up at 2.89. NG is simply waiting on weather…
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-01 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is navigating a bifurcated landscape, where U.S. supply remains robust at ~113.5 Bcf/d against steady demand near ~82 Bcf/d, leading to a price recovery around ~$3.09. Seasonal storage draws like -54 Bcf provide some support, yet inventories hover above the 5-year average, hinting that winter’s chill was late. Meanwhile, global LNG tensions, particularly from Qatar and the Strait of Hormuz disruptions, are igniting fears of scarcity. Watch for price movements near the critical $2.924 mark; weather patterns and international dynamics will be pivotal.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 11.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 5.33 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$2.86
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.96
MA(20): $3.04
Current Price is 2.86, 9 day MA 2.96, 20 day MA 3.04
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1006
Signal: -0.1056
Days since crossover: 22
MACD crossed the line 22 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 41.82
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 41.82 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 5,355
Avg (20d): 126,095
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 10.51
%D: 11.33
Stochastic %K: 10.51, %D: 11.33. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 13.14
+DI: 21.92
-DI: 20.43
ADX: 13.14 (+DI: 21.92, -DI: 20.43). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -89.49
Williams %R: -89.49 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.26
Middle: 3.04
Lower: 2.82
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.26, Middle: 3.04, Lower: 2.82
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.3 | 108.1 | 105.2 | 102.4 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| Total Supply | 112.6 | 111.6 | 110.1 | 106.87 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 24.8 | 23.1 | 23.53 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.8 | 31.1 | 28.1 | 29.03 |
| Residential & Commercial | 28.7 | 39.2 | 20.8 | 26.5 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 19.5 | 16.2 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.9 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 117.93 | 129.63 | 101.9 | 106.47 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -5.33 | -18.03 | 8.2 | 0.4 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
95.0 HDD
-25.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
74.0 HDD
-33.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
9.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
15.0 CDD
+8.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/24 | 17.0 | 19.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/25 | 12.0 | 18.0 | -6.0 |
| 03/26 | 8.0 | 18.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/27 | 15.0 | 17.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/28 | 19.0 | 16.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/29 | 15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
| 03/30 | 9.0 | 16.0 | -7.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01 | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/02 | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/03 | 7.0 | 15.0 | -8.0 |
| 04/04 | 7.0 | 15.0 | -8.0 |
| 04/05 | 12.0 | 16.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/06 | 15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/07 | 13.0 | 15.0 | -2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/24 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/25 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/26 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/27 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/28 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/29 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/30 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/02 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/03 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/04 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/05 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/06 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/07 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.93
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.03%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.03%)
US_10Y
4.32
Daily:
0.01 (0.19%)
Weekly:
-0.1 (-2.2%)
SP500
6575.32
Daily:
46.8 (0.72%)
Weekly:
98.16 (1.52%)
VIX
24.54
Daily:
-0.71 (-2.81%)
Weekly:
-2.9 (-10.57%)
GOLD
4713.9
Daily:
66.3 (1.43%)
Weekly:
338.4 (7.73%)
COPPER
5.57
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.38%)
Weekly:
0.12 (2.2%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-24
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,504,052
Change: -56,239
Managed Money
-54,155
Change: -9,527
-3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-10,910
Change: -6,855
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
163,658
Change: +2,197
10.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-118,452
Change: +14,949
-7.9% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-24
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,002,065
Change: -79,511
Managed Money
94,336
Change: -2,035
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
267,288
Change: +17,892
13.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-534,298
Change: -22,273
-26.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 17.625 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 20.130 USD/MMBtu (-0.400). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.505 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
17.625
+0.000Front month: APR 26
As of 2026-04-01
JKM Prices
20.130
-0.400Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-01
JKM-TTF Spread
2.505
14.21%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-01
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.7
19.0
17.3
15.6
13.9
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| APR 26 | 17.625 |
| MAY 26 | 17.164 |
| JUN 26 | 17.174 |
| JUL 26 | 17.169 |
| AUG 26 | 17.167 |
| SEP 26 | 17.172 |
| OCT 26 | 17.166 |
| NOV 26 | 17.243 |
| DEC 26 | 17.326 |
| JAN 27 | 17.310 |
| FEB 27 | 17.201 |
| MAR 27 | 16.404 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 20.130 |
| JUN 26 | 18.360 |
| JUL 26 | 18.540 |
| AUG 26 | 18.275 |
| SEP 26 | 18.060 |
| OCT 26 | 17.475 |
| NOV 26 | 17.470 |
| DEC 26 | 17.810 |
| JAN 27 | 17.555 |
| FEB 27 | 17.390 |
| MAR 27 | 16.255 |
| APR 27 | 14.490 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-02 to 2026-03-31
Latest LNG Flow
18.90
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.50
(-2.6%)
30-Day Average
18.93
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | 18.90 | N/A |
| 2026-03-23 | 19.00 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-24 | 18.90 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-25 | 19.20 | +0.30 |
| 2026-03-26 | 19.30 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-27 | 19.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-03-28 | 19.50 | +0.50 |
| 2026-03-29 | 19.50 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | 19.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-31 | 18.90 | -0.50 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.35
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
112
Last Updated:
2026-04-01 23:47:47
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Higher Sugar Production in Brazil Weighs on Sugar Prices Barchart
- Longer-Term Supply Shock a Risk for Economies — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises on Supply-Disruption Concerns Spurred by Widening Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Australian National Cabinet Meeting to Focus on Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (2 articles)
- Canadian Crude Oil Exports Rise to Record High — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Impact on Consumer Demand Will Be Key to Assessing Mideast War Costs — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (1 articles)
- Societe Generale Forecasts Brent at $125 Next Month — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.86
Closest Support:
$2.78
2.8% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
38.81% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.82
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-01 23:47:47
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.8%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | $2.84 | $2.64 | $3.05 |
| 2026-04-03 | $2.83 | $2.62 | $3.04 |
| 2026-04-04 | $2.85 | $2.64 | $3.06 |
| 2026-04-05 | $2.85 | $2.64 | $3.05 |
| 2026-04-06 | $2.85 | $2.65 | $3.06 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.80% for the next trading day (2026-04-02), reaching $2.84.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-02 and 2026-04-06.
- The average confidence interval width is ~14.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.78 while resistance is at 3.97. Traders should be cautious as the fundamental balance shows a deficit of -5.33 BCFD, indicating potential volatility in the market.
The weather outlook suggests high heating demand across regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which may influence short-term price movements. The ML price forecast for the next day indicates a potential increase of 0.80%, with a range between 2.64 and 3.05.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The overall market sentiment is bullish with a sentiment score of +0.350, suggesting positive market conditions for producers. However, the fundamental balance reflects a significant change of +12.70, indicating an adjustment in supply-demand dynamics that could affect production strategies.
Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies in light of the expected high heating demand and the potential for increased prices. Monitoring geopolitical developments, particularly those affecting crude oil supply, will be essential for operational planning.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With heating demand expected to remain high due to the weather outlook, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The fundamental balance indicates a deficit, which could lead to supply reliability risks.
It is advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options against potential price increases, especially with the ML price forecast suggesting upward movement in prices.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a bullish sentiment overall, driven by high heating demand and positive sentiment in crude oil markets. The fundamental balance shows a notable shift, with a deficit indicating tightening supply conditions.
Analysts should focus on the implications of regional weather patterns and their impact on demand dynamics. The convergence of strong heating demand and a bullish sentiment could lead to shifts in market outlook, necessitating close monitoring of price movements and geopolitical events that may influence supply.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.