Natural Gas Radar

2026-04-02 23:48

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 04/02/2026 Focus: Natural Gas
Natural gas right now feels like a split-screen movie where the U.S. is lounging on a comfortable supply couch while the global LNG market is sprinting through a burning hallway. Prices clawed back to ~$3.09 on cooler forecasts and contract expiry shenanigans, but under the hood production is still humming at ~113.5 Bcf/d versus demand near ~82 Bcf/d, which isn’t exactly tight. Storage helped bulls breathe with a -54 Bcf draw, tightening the surplus, yet inventories still sit slightly above the 5-year average like a reminder that winter never fully showed up. Then the plot twist: Qatar’s Ras Laffan damage (impacting ~20% of global LNG) and Hormuz disruptions have turned the global market into a scarcity panic, dragging U.S. molecules into international relevance. Europe sitting at just 28% storage is basically flashing a “need gas ASAP” sign to every cargo on the water. So the path forward is a tug-of-war: if LNG chaos persists we grind toward $3.247–$3.449, but if U.S. production stays bloated and weather underdelivers, this thing can just as easily sink back toward $3.00 and remind everyone that fundamentals still matter… eventually. * Monday brought Natty back down to below the critical 2.924 level which is the lifeline for bulls - below this level opens up 2.762 and 2.525 as potential targets for next steps. Objectively I believe NG is mispriced at this level and is below the fundamental supply/demand value level. * Tuesday was a flat trading day as we ended up about where we started but tested the high 2.90s by the bulls and the low 2.80s by the bears…..ending up at 2.89. NG is simply waiting on weather… * Natty is still showing weakness as there simply is no weather to be had….it may be May before we see upside

Today's Update

Updated: 2026-04-02 23:47:24 Length: 558 chars
Natural gas is currently experiencing a split-screen scenario: while U.S. production remains robust at ~113.5 Bcf/d against demand of ~82 Bcf/d, global LNG dynamics are heating up due to disruptions like Qatar's Ras Laffan damage. Prices recently dipped to ~$3.09, influenced by a -54 Bcf storage draw and cooler forecasts, but still hover above the 5-year average. Analysts warn that if LNG chaos continues, prices could rise, but persistent oversupply and mild weather may push them back toward $3.00. Keep an eye on weather patterns and global LNG demand!

Executive Summary

Total supply increased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 11.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 5.33 BCFD

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $2.81
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $2.92

MA(20): $3.03

Current Price is 2.81, 9 day MA 2.92, 20 day MA 3.03

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.1087

Signal: -0.1067

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 40.43

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 40.43 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 119,364

Avg (20d): 130,725

Ratio: 0.91

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 5.7

%D: 9.28

Stochastic %K: 5.7, %D: 9.28. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.22

+DI: 20.86

-DI: 20.21

ADX: 12.22 (+DI: 20.86, -DI: 20.21). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -94.3

Williams %R: -94.3 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 3.28

Middle: 3.03

Lower: 2.78

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.28, Middle: 3.03, Lower: 2.78

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Dry Production 108.3 108.1 105.2 102.4
LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.07
Canadian Imports 4.3 3.5 4.8 4.4
Total Supply 112.6 111.6 110.1 106.87
Industrial Demand 22.5 24.8 23.1 23.53
Electric Power Demand 32.8 31.1 28.1 29.03
Residential & Commercial 28.7 39.2 20.8 26.5
LNG Exports 18.8 19.5 16.2 14.03
Mexico Exports 6.3 6.2 6.7 6.0
Pipeline Fuel 8.83 8.83 6.9 7.33
Total Demand 117.93 129.63 101.9 106.47
Supply/Demand Balance -5.33 -18.03 8.2 0.4

Weather Analysis

Natural Gas Weather Impact: MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand) (Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)

Weather Analysis Summary

Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days: 84.0 HDD -33.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days: 83.0 HDD -24.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days: 10.0 CDD +3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days: 12.0 CDD +5.0 vs Normal

Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)

HDD Analysis
HDD Analysis Chart
CDD Analysis
CDD Analysis Chart
× Zoomed Chart

Detailed Data

Recent HDD Data
Date HDD Normal Anomaly
03/25 12.0 18.0 -6.0
03/26 8.0 18.0 -10.0
03/27 15.0 17.0 -2.0
03/28 19.0 16.0 +3.0
03/29 15.0 16.0 -1.0
03/30 9.0 16.0 -7.0
03/31 6.0 16.0 -10.0
HDD Forecast
Date HDD Normal Anomaly
04/02 11.0 15.0 -4.0
04/03 8.0 15.0 -7.0
04/04 7.0 15.0 -8.0
04/05 11.0 16.0 -5.0
04/06 14.0 16.0 -2.0
04/07 16.0 15.0 +1.0
04/08 16.0 15.0 +1.0
Recent CDD Data
Date CDD Normal Anomaly
03/25 1.0 1.0 +0.0
03/26 2.0 1.0 +1.0
03/27 2.0 1.0 +1.0
03/28 1.0 1.0 +0.0
03/29 1.0 1.0 +0.0
03/30 1.0 1.0 +0.0
03/31 2.0 1.0 +1.0
CDD Forecast
Date CDD Normal Anomaly
04/02 3.0 1.0 +2.0
04/03 3.0 1.0 +2.0
04/04 3.0 1.0 +2.0
04/05 1.0 1.0 +0.0
04/06 1.0 1.0 +0.0
04/07 1.0 1.0 +0.0
04/08 0.0 1.0 -1.0
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Region: CONUS Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

100.03
Daily: 0.38 (0.39%)
Weekly: -0.12 (-0.12%)

US_10Y

4.31
Daily: -0.01 (-0.14%)
Weekly: -0.13 (-2.86%)

SP500

6582.69
Daily: 7.37 (0.11%)
Weekly: 213.84 (3.36%)

VIX

23.87
Daily: -0.67 (-2.73%)
Weekly: -7.18 (-23.12%)

GOLD

4702.7
Daily: -80.5 (-1.68%)
Weekly: 210.7 (4.69%)

COPPER

5.68
Daily: 0.06 (1.02%)
Weekly: 0.21 (3.92%)

CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis

Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2026-03-24
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

1,504,052
Change: -56,239

Managed Money

-54,155
Change: -9,527
-3.6% of OI

Producer/Merchant

-10,910
Change: -6,855
-0.7% of OI

Swap Dealers

163,658
Change: +2,197
10.9% of OI

Other Reportables

-118,452
Change: +14,949
-7.9% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)

Report Date: 2026-03-24
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range

Open Interest

2,002,065
Change: -79,511

Managed Money

94,336
Change: -2,035
4.7% of OI

Producer/Merchant

267,288
Change: +17,892
13.4% of OI

Swap Dealers

-534,298
Change: -22,273
-26.7% of OI

Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):

  • Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening

LNG Market Analysis

LNG Market Summary

TTF prices remained stable to 17.625 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 19.830 USD/MMBtu (-0.300). JKM is trading at a premium of 2.205 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

TTF Prices

17.625

+0.000

Front month: APR 26

As of 2026-04-02

JKM Prices

19.830

-0.300

Front month: MAY 26

As of 2026-04-02

JKM-TTF Spread

2.205

12.51%

JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.

As of 2026-04-02

Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.4
18.7
16.9
15.2
13.4
17.62
19.83
APR 26
16.23
17.54
MAY 26
16.25
17.74
JUN 26
16.26
17.56
JUL 26
16.25
17.36
AUG 26
16.26
16.79
SEP 26
16.25
16.73
OCT 26
16.33
17.02
NOV 26
16.36
16.82
DEC 26
16.34
16.62
JAN 27
16.22
15.51
FEB 27
15.45
13.99
MAR 27
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (EUR/MWh)
APR 26 17.625
MAY 26 16.232
JUN 26 16.248
JUL 26 16.260
AUG 26 16.251
SEP 26 16.259
OCT 26 16.246
NOV 26 16.331
DEC 26 16.364
JAN 27 16.340
FEB 27 16.219
MAR 27 15.445
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
Month Price (USD/MMBtu)
MAY 26 19.830
JUN 26 17.535
JUL 26 17.740
AUG 26 17.560
SEP 26 17.360
OCT 26 16.785
NOV 26 16.735
DEC 26 17.020
JAN 27 16.815
FEB 27 16.625
MAR 27 15.510
APR 27 13.995

LNG Flows Analysis

LNG Flows Summary

2026-03-03 to 2026-04-01
Latest LNG Flow 18.80 BCF/D
Daily Change -0.10 (-0.5%)
30-Day Average
18.94
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days

LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)

LNG Flows Chart
×

LNG Flows Analysis

Zoomed Chart

Recent LNG Flows Data

Date LNG Flow (BCF/D) Change from Previous
2026-03-23 19.00 N/A
2026-03-24 18.90 -0.10
2026-03-25 19.20 +0.30
2026-03-26 19.30 +0.10
2026-03-27 19.00 -0.30
2026-03-28 19.50 +0.50
2026-03-29 19.50 +0.00
2026-03-30 19.40 -0.10
2026-03-31 18.90 -0.50
2026-04-01 18.80 -0.10

News & Sentiment Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.3
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 130
Last Updated: 2026-04-02 23:48:14

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

NATURAL_GAS

0.0

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Weather (1 articles)

Fibonacci Levels Analysis

Current Price: $2.81
Closest Support: $2.78 1.07% below current price
Closest Resistance: $3.97 41.28% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $2.78 Support
0.236 $3.97 Resistance
0.382 $4.7
0.5 $5.3
0.618 $5.9
0.786 $6.75
1.0 $7.83

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $9.2
1.618 $10.95
2.0 $12.88
2.618 $16.0

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $2.82
Forecast Generated: 2026-04-02 23:48:14
Next Trading Day: UP 0.8%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2026-04-02 $2.84 $2.64 $3.05
2026-04-03 $2.83 $2.62 $3.04
2026-04-04 $2.85 $2.64 $3.06
2026-04-05 $2.85 $2.64 $3.05
2026-04-06 $2.85 $2.65 $3.06

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.80% for the next trading day (2026-04-02), reaching $2.84.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-02 and 2026-04-06.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~14.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish outlook. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.78 while resistance is at 3.97. Traders should be cautious as the market sentiment is also bearish, with a sentiment score of -0.300. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.80%, suggesting potential short-term opportunities within the range of 2.64 to 3.05. However, the convergence of bearish sentiment and technical indicators poses risks for volatility.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With a fundamental balance of -5.33 BCFD and a notable change of +12.70, producers should assess their production planning closely. The overall bearish sentiment, reflected in a sentiment score of -0.300, indicates a challenging market environment. Producers may want to consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price drops, especially given the bearish news sentiment surrounding crude oil. Additionally, the heating demand in the Northeast and Midwest suggests a potential for localized production adjustments.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):

Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains bearish. The heating demand is expected to be moderate, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, which could impact supply reliability. Given the current fundamental balance of -5.33 BCFD, consumers may want to explore procurement strategies that capitalize on current price forecasts while remaining vigilant to any sudden shifts in market dynamics.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The energy market is currently facing a bearish sentiment, with a sentiment score of -0.300 and a fundamental balance of -5.33 BCFD. The technical indicators suggest resistance at 3.97 and support at 2.78, indicating a potential range-bound market. The moderate heating demand forecast, combined with low cooling demand, suggests that weather patterns are influencing the supply dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor these factors as they could lead to shifts in market outlook, particularly if demand patterns change significantly.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

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