Natural gas right now feels like a split-screen movie where the U.S. is lounging on a comfortable supply couch while the global LNG market is sprinting through a burning hallway. Prices clawed back to ~$3.09 on cooler forecasts and contract expiry shenanigans, but under the hood production is still humming at ~113.5 Bcf/d versus demand near ~82 Bcf/d, which isn’t exactly tight. Storage helped bulls breathe with a -54 Bcf draw, tightening the surplus, yet inventories still sit slightly above the 5-year average like a reminder that winter never fully showed up. Then the plot twist: Qatar’s Ras Laffan damage (impacting ~20% of global LNG) and Hormuz disruptions have turned the global market into a scarcity panic, dragging U.S. molecules into international relevance. Europe sitting at just 28% storage is basically flashing a “need gas ASAP” sign to every cargo on the water. So the path forward is a tug-of-war: if LNG chaos persists we grind toward $3.247–$3.449, but if U.S. production stays bloated and weather underdelivers, this thing can just as easily sink back toward $3.00 and remind everyone that fundamentals still matter… eventually.
* Monday brought Natty back down to below the critical 2.924 level which is the lifeline for bulls - below this level opens up 2.762 and 2.525 as potential targets for next steps. Objectively I believe NG is mispriced at this level and is below the fundamental supply/demand value level.
* Tuesday was a flat trading day as we ended up about where we started but tested the high 2.90s by the bulls and the low 2.80s by the bears…..ending up at 2.89. NG is simply waiting on weather…
* Natty is still showing weakness as there simply is no weather to be had….it may be May before we see upside
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-03 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is stuck in a split-screen scenario: the U.S. enjoys ample supply (113.5 Bcf/d) while global LNG markets face turmoil, notably from disruptions in Qatar affecting 20% of supply. Prices dipped to ~$3.09, driven by milder weather and a storage injection season, raising concerns about demand. With inventories above the 5-year average and Europe’s storage at just 28%, the market is at a crossroads. If global chaos persists, prices could climb to $3.24-$3.44, but a bloated U.S. supply could drag them back to $3.00. Keep an eye on weather patterns!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 11.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 5.33 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.8
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.92
MA(20): $3.03
Current Price is 2.8, 9 day MA 2.92, 20 day MA 3.03
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.1093
Signal: -0.1068
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 40.24
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 40.24 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 126,772
Avg (20d): 131,095
Ratio: 0.97
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 4.28
%D: 8.81
Stochastic %K: 4.28, %D: 8.81. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 12.22
+DI: 20.86
-DI: 20.21
ADX: 12.22 (+DI: 20.86, -DI: 20.21). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -95.72
Williams %R: -95.72 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.28
Middle: 3.03
Lower: 2.78
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.28, Middle: 3.03, Lower: 2.78
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.3 | 108.1 | 105.2 | 102.4 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| Total Supply | 112.6 | 111.6 | 110.1 | 106.87 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 24.8 | 23.1 | 23.53 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.8 | 31.1 | 28.1 | 29.03 |
| Residential & Commercial | 28.7 | 39.2 | 20.8 | 26.5 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 19.5 | 16.2 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.9 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 117.93 | 129.63 | 101.9 | 106.47 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -5.33 | -18.03 | 8.2 | 0.4 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
83.0 HDD
-31.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
85.0 HDD
-22.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
12.0 CDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
10.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/26 | 8.0 | 18.0 | -10.0 |
| 03/27 | 15.0 | 17.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/28 | 19.0 | 16.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/29 | 15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
| 03/30 | 9.0 | 16.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/31 | 6.0 | 16.0 | -10.0 |
| 04/01 | 11.0 | 15.0 | -4.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03 | 8.0 | 15.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/04 | 7.0 | 15.0 | -8.0 |
| 04/05 | 12.0 | 16.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/06 | 15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/07 | 17.0 | 15.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/08 | 15.0 | 15.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/09 | 11.0 | 15.0 | -4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/26 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/27 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/28 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/29 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/30 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/31 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/01 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/04 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/05 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/06 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/07 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/08 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/09 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.19
Daily:
0.16 (0.16%)
Weekly:
-0.32 (-0.32%)
US_10Y
4.31
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.14%)
Weekly:
-0.13 (-2.86%)
SP500
6582.69
Daily:
7.37 (0.11%)
Weekly:
213.84 (3.36%)
VIX
23.87
Daily:
-0.67 (-2.73%)
Weekly:
-7.18 (-23.12%)
GOLD
4651.5
Daily:
-131.7 (-2.75%)
Weekly:
159.5 (3.55%)
COPPER
5.56
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.08%)
Weekly:
0.1 (1.76%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-31
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,514,508
Change: +10,456
Managed Money
-67,616
Change: -13,461
-4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-17,250
Change: -6,340
-1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
165,678
Change: +2,020
10.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-99,840
Change: +18,612
-6.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-31
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,030,970
Change: +28,905
Managed Money
73,347
Change: -20,989
3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
287,728
Change: +20,440
14.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-532,819
Change: +1,479
-26.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.928 EUR/MWh (+0.696). JKM prices increased to 19.965 USD/MMBtu (+0.135). JKM is trading at a premium of 3.037 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.928
+0.696Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-03
JKM Prices
19.965
+0.135Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-03
JKM-TTF Spread
3.037
17.94%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-03
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.6
18.8
17.0
15.2
13.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 16.928 |
| JUN 26 | 17.020 |
| JUL 26 | 17.026 |
| AUG 26 | 17.031 |
| SEP 26 | 17.032 |
| OCT 26 | 16.972 |
| NOV 26 | 16.989 |
| DEC 26 | 17.015 |
| JAN 27 | 16.945 |
| FEB 27 | 16.795 |
| MAR 27 | 15.947 |
| APR 27 | 13.970 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 19.965 |
| JUN 26 | 18.340 |
| JUL 26 | 18.610 |
| AUG 26 | 18.405 |
| SEP 26 | 18.205 |
| OCT 26 | 17.545 |
| NOV 26 | 17.450 |
| DEC 26 | 17.770 |
| JAN 27 | 17.515 |
| FEB 27 | 17.350 |
| MAR 27 | 16.065 |
| APR 27 | 14.340 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-04 to 2026-04-02
Latest LNG Flow
19.00
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.20
(+1.1%)
30-Day Average
18.94
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | 18.90 | N/A |
| 2026-03-25 | 19.20 | +0.30 |
| 2026-03-26 | 19.30 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-27 | 19.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-03-28 | 19.50 | +0.50 |
| 2026-03-29 | 19.50 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | 19.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-31 | 18.90 | -0.50 |
| 2026-04-01 | 18.80 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-02 | 19.00 | +0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
97
Last Updated:
2026-04-03 23:48:09
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Higher Sugar Production in Brazil Weighs on Sugar Prices Barchart
- Longer-Term Supply Shock a Risk for Economies — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
- Canadian Crude Oil Exports Rise to Record High — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- Oil Falls on Prospects of Quick End to U.S.-Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
- Societe Generale Forecasts Brent at $125 Next Month — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.8
Closest Support:
$2.78
0.71% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
41.79% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.8
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-03 23:48:10
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.29%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | $2.79 | $2.59 | $3.0 |
| 2026-04-04 | $2.81 | $2.6 | $3.01 |
| 2026-04-05 | $2.81 | $2.6 | $3.01 |
| 2026-04-06 | $2.81 | $2.61 | $3.02 |
| 2026-04-07 | $2.81 | $2.61 | $3.02 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.29% for the next trading day (2026-04-03), reaching $2.79.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-03 and 2026-04-07.
- The average confidence interval width is ~14.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market data presents a moderately bearish outlook, as indicated by the technical interpretation score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level stands at 2.78, while resistance is noted at 3.97, suggesting potential price volatility within this range.
With a fundamental balance of -5.33 BCFD and a notable increase of +12.70, traders should be cautious of short-term opportunities as the market sentiment remains bearish with a sentiment score of -0.200. Expect potential price movements in the 2.59 to 3.0 range, as indicated by the ML forecast predicting a downward trend of 0.29%.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market conditions suggest a need for careful production planning. The fundamental balance indicates a significant change of +12.70, which may affect supply strategies. Given the bearish sentiment in the market, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines.
The news sentiment surrounding supply is slightly positive (+0.125), but the overall demand sentiment is negative (-0.270). This divergence suggests that while there may be opportunities in supply management, producers should remain vigilant regarding demand fluctuations, particularly in light of geopolitical factors that could influence market stability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment is currently bearish. The fundamental balance of -5.33 BCFD indicates possible supply reliability risks, especially with heating demand expected to be moderate in the coming days.
Given the weather outlook showing heating demand dominating in the Northeast and Midwest, consumers in these regions should consider strategic procurement or hedging to protect against rising costs, particularly as the ML price forecast indicates a potential downward trend in the short term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The synthesis of current market data indicates a prevailing bearish sentiment across the board, with a sentiment score of -0.200. The fundamental balance reflects a notable change of +12.70, suggesting an oversupply situation that could impact future pricing dynamics.
The technical indicators, including the Fibonacci levels, highlight critical support at 2.78 and resistance at 3.97, which should be monitored closely. The weather outlook indicates a shift towards heating demand, particularly in colder regions, which may provide short-term price support. Analysts should remain attentive to geopolitical developments and their implications on market stability.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and