Natural gas is trading like a market that just discovered it overpacked for the trip, sliding to ~$2.80 as a +36 Bcf injection (vs a -4 Bcf 5-year avg draw) flipped storage into a +54 Bcf surplus almost overnight. Under the hood, the math is blunt: ~111.8 Bcf/d of production is running circles around ~72.6 Bcf/d of demand, while inventories sit at 1.865 Tcf (+5.2% y/y, ~3% above the 5-year average), which is about as bearish as a spreadsheet can get. Weather isn’t helping either, with above-normal temperatures across the eastern U.S. muting demand just as injection season hits its stride, setting the stage for early builds that could push EOS storage toward 3.7–3.9 Tcf.
But zoom out and the plot thickens… because globally, gas is anything but comfortable. Europe is limping along at just 28% storage (vs 41% normal), while ~17% of Ras Laffan capacity, representing roughly 20% of global LNG supply, is impaired for potentially 3–5 years, quietly tightening the global balance. That tension is already showing up in LNG flows holding near ~20 Bcf/d, suggesting U.S. gas is one geopolitical headline away from being drafted into the global supply chain.
So where are we headed? Near-term, the weight of strong injections, high production, and soft demand likely keeps pressure on prices toward the low $2.70s or below, but the longer-term setup is starting to look like a coiled spring… where any disruption, demand surprise, or production stall could snap prices back toward the $3.25–$3.45 zone faster than traders can refresh their weather models.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-04 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are sliding to ~$2.80 as a hefty +36 Bcf injection floods storage, pushing it to a +54 Bcf surplus. Production is running circles around demand, leaving inventories at 1.865 Tcf, which is 5.2% higher than last year. Meanwhile, warmer weather dampens demand. However, a global perspective shows Europe at only 28% storage and supply disruptions looming, hinting that U.S. gas could rebound quickly if geopolitical tensions escalate. In short, prices may remain low, but keep an eye on potential surprises!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 11.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 5.33 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.8
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.92
MA(20): $3.03
Current Price is 2.8, 9 day MA 2.92, 20 day MA 3.03
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.1093
Signal: -0.1068
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 40.24
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 40.24 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 126,772
Avg (20d): 131,095
Ratio: 0.97
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 4.28
%D: 8.81
Stochastic %K: 4.28, %D: 8.81. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 12.22
+DI: 20.86
-DI: 20.21
ADX: 12.22 (+DI: 20.86, -DI: 20.21). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -95.72
Williams %R: -95.72 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.28
Middle: 3.03
Lower: 2.78
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.28, Middle: 3.03, Lower: 2.78
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.3 | 108.1 | 105.2 | 102.4 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| Total Supply | 112.6 | 111.6 | 110.1 | 106.87 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 24.8 | 23.1 | 23.53 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.8 | 31.1 | 28.1 | 29.03 |
| Residential & Commercial | 28.7 | 39.2 | 20.8 | 26.5 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 19.5 | 16.2 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.9 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 117.93 | 129.63 | 101.9 | 106.47 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -5.33 | -18.03 | 8.2 | 0.4 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
87.0 HDD
-24.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
86.0 HDD
-21.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
12.0 CDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
9.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/27 | 15.0 | 17.0 | -2.0 |
| 03/28 | 19.0 | 16.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/29 | 15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
| 03/30 | 9.0 | 16.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/31 | 6.0 | 16.0 | -10.0 |
| 04/01 | 11.0 | 15.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/02 | 12.0 | 15.0 | -3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04 | 8.0 | 15.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/05 | 12.0 | 16.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/06 | 15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/07 | 18.0 | 15.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/08 | 14.0 | 15.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/09 | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/10 | 9.0 | 15.0 | -6.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/27 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 03/28 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/29 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/30 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/31 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/01 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/02 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/05 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/06 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/07 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/08 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/09 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.19
Daily:
0.16 (0.16%)
Weekly:
-0.32 (-0.32%)
US_10Y
4.31
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.14%)
Weekly:
-0.13 (-2.86%)
SP500
6582.69
Daily:
7.37 (0.11%)
Weekly:
213.84 (3.36%)
VIX
23.87
Daily:
-0.67 (-2.73%)
Weekly:
-7.18 (-23.12%)
GOLD
4651.5
Daily:
-131.7 (-2.75%)
Weekly:
159.5 (3.55%)
COPPER
5.56
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.08%)
Weekly:
0.1 (1.76%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-31
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,514,508
Change: +10,456
Managed Money
-67,616
Change: -13,461
-4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-17,250
Change: -6,340
-1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
165,678
Change: +2,020
10.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-99,840
Change: +18,612
-6.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-31
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,030,970
Change: +28,905
Managed Money
73,347
Change: -20,989
3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
287,728
Change: +20,440
14.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-532,819
Change: +1,479
-26.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.928 EUR/MWh (+0.696). JKM prices increased to 19.965 USD/MMBtu (+0.135). JKM is trading at a premium of 3.037 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.928
+0.696Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-04
JKM Prices
19.965
+0.135Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-04
JKM-TTF Spread
3.037
17.94%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-04
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.6
18.8
17.0
15.2
13.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 16.928 |
| JUN 26 | 17.020 |
| JUL 26 | 17.026 |
| AUG 26 | 17.031 |
| SEP 26 | 17.032 |
| OCT 26 | 16.972 |
| NOV 26 | 16.989 |
| DEC 26 | 17.015 |
| JAN 27 | 16.945 |
| FEB 27 | 16.795 |
| MAR 27 | 15.947 |
| APR 27 | 13.970 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 19.965 |
| JUN 26 | 18.340 |
| JUL 26 | 18.610 |
| AUG 26 | 18.405 |
| SEP 26 | 18.205 |
| OCT 26 | 17.545 |
| NOV 26 | 17.450 |
| DEC 26 | 17.770 |
| JAN 27 | 17.515 |
| FEB 27 | 17.350 |
| MAR 27 | 16.065 |
| APR 27 | 14.340 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-05 to 2026-04-03
Latest LNG Flow
19.00
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.00
(+0.0%)
30-Day Average
18.96
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 19.20 | N/A |
| 2026-03-26 | 19.30 | +0.10 |
| 2026-03-27 | 19.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-03-28 | 19.50 | +0.50 |
| 2026-03-29 | 19.50 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | 19.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-31 | 18.90 | -0.50 |
| 2026-04-01 | 18.80 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-02 | 19.00 | +0.20 |
| 2026-04-03 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.233
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
60
Last Updated:
2026-04-04 23:47:26
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- Oil Falls on Prospects of Quick End to U.S.-Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.8
Closest Support:
$2.78
0.71% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
41.79% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.8
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-04 23:47:26
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.29%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | $2.79 | $2.59 | $3.0 |
| 2026-04-04 | $2.81 | $2.6 | $3.01 |
| 2026-04-05 | $2.81 | $2.6 | $3.01 |
| 2026-04-06 | $2.81 | $2.61 | $3.02 |
| 2026-04-07 | $2.81 | $2.61 | $3.02 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.29% for the next trading day (2026-04-03), reaching $2.79.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-03 and 2026-04-07.
- The average confidence interval width is ~14.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market data indicates a bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. Traders should note the key Fibonacci support level at 2.78 and resistance at 3.97. The ML price forecast suggests a potential decline of 0.29%, with a range of 2.59 to 3.00. This presents short-term opportunities for bearish strategies but also highlights risks of increased volatility due to the current market sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -5.33 BCFD, indicating a significant increase in supply pressures (+12.70). Producers should consider adjusting their production plans and hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with the bearish market sentiment. The geopolitical context, particularly the potential for a quick resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict, could influence crude oil prices and should be monitored closely.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the overall market sentiment being bearish and low heating demand expected, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in the near term. The weather outlook indicates low heating and cooling demand, which may stabilize prices temporarily. However, procurement strategies should account for possible volatility driven by market sentiment and supply reliability risks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape is shaped by a bearish sentiment, with the technical indicators and fundamental balance reflecting downward pressure on prices. The strongest driving factors include the fundamental deficit and low demand forecasts. Analysts should be vigilant for shifts in geopolitical developments and their potential impact on market dynamics, particularly in crude oil.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.