Natural gas is trading like a market that just discovered it overpacked for the trip, sliding to ~$2.80 as a +36 Bcf injection (vs a -4 Bcf 5-year avg draw) flipped storage into a +54 Bcf surplus almost overnight. Under the hood, the math is blunt: ~111.8 Bcf/d of production is running circles around ~72.6 Bcf/d of demand, while inventories sit at 1.865 Tcf (+5.2% y/y, ~3% above the 5-year average), which is about as bearish as a spreadsheet can get. Weather isn’t helping either, with above-normal temperatures across the eastern U.S. muting demand just as injection season hits its stride, setting the stage for early builds that could push EOS storage toward 3.7–3.9 Tcf.
But zoom out and the plot thickens… because globally, gas is anything but comfortable. Europe is limping along at just 28% storage (vs 41% normal), while ~17% of Ras Laffan capacity, representing roughly 20% of global LNG supply, is impaired for potentially 3–5 years, quietly tightening the global balance. That tension is already showing up in LNG flows holding near ~20 Bcf/d, suggesting U.S. gas is one geopolitical headline away from being drafted into the global supply chain.
So where are we headed? Near-term, the weight of strong injections, high production, and soft demand likely keeps pressure on prices toward the low $2.70s or below, but the longer-term setup is starting to look like a coiled spring… where any disruption, demand surprise, or production stall could snap prices back toward the $3.25–$3.45 zone faster than traders can refresh their weather models.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-05 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently experiencing downward pressure, trading around $2.80, as a robust +36 Bcf injection flipped storage to a +54 Bcf surplus. Production at ~111.8 Bcf/d significantly outpaces demand of ~72.6 Bcf/d, while inventories sit at 1.865 Tcf, about 3% above the 5-year average. However, globally, tightness looms with Europe at just 28% storage and disruptions affecting LNG supply. In the near term, prices may linger in the low $2.70s, but any geopolitical shock could swiftly propel them back towards $3.25–$3.45.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 11.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 5.33 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.83
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.91
MA(20): $3.01
Current Price is 2.83, 9 day MA 2.91, 20 day MA 3.01
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.11
Signal: -0.1074
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 41.6
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 41.6 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 5,273
Avg (20d): 121,517
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 10.59
%D: 7.09
Stochastic %K: 10.59, %D: 7.09. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.46
+DI: 20.45
-DI: 19.81
ADX: 11.46 (+DI: 20.45, -DI: 19.81). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -89.41
Williams %R: -89.41 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.26
Middle: 3.01
Lower: 2.76
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.26, Middle: 3.01, Lower: 2.76
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.3 | 108.1 | 105.2 | 102.4 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| Total Supply | 112.6 | 111.6 | 110.1 | 106.87 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 24.8 | 23.1 | 23.53 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.8 | 31.1 | 28.1 | 29.03 |
| Residential & Commercial | 28.7 | 39.2 | 20.8 | 26.5 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 19.5 | 16.2 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.9 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 117.93 | 129.63 | 101.9 | 106.47 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -5.33 | -18.03 | 8.2 | 0.4 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
82.0 HDD
-27.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
87.0 HDD
-19.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
12.0 CDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
7.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/28 | 19.0 | 16.0 | +3.0 |
| 03/29 | 15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
| 03/30 | 9.0 | 16.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/31 | 6.0 | 16.0 | -10.0 |
| 04/01 | 11.0 | 15.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/02 | 12.0 | 15.0 | -3.0 |
| 04/03 | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05 | 12.0 | 16.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/06 | 15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/07 | 18.0 | 15.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/08 | 15.0 | 15.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/09 | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/10 | 9.0 | 15.0 | -6.0 |
| 04/11 | 8.0 | 14.0 | -6.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/28 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/29 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/30 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/31 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/01 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/02 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/03 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/06 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/07 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/08 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/09 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.03
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.0%)
Weekly:
-0.48 (-0.48%)
US_10Y
4.31
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.14%)
Weekly:
-0.13 (-2.86%)
SP500
6582.69
Daily:
7.37 (0.11%)
Weekly:
213.84 (3.36%)
VIX
23.87
Daily:
-0.67 (-2.73%)
Weekly:
-7.18 (-23.12%)
GOLD
4658.1
Daily:
6.6 (0.14%)
Weekly:
132.1 (2.92%)
COPPER
5.61
Daily:
0.04 (0.81%)
Weekly:
0.13 (2.41%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-31
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,514,508
Change: +10,456
Managed Money
-67,616
Change: -13,461
-4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-17,250
Change: -6,340
-1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
165,678
Change: +2,020
10.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-99,840
Change: +18,612
-6.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-31
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,030,970
Change: +28,905
Managed Money
73,347
Change: -20,989
3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
287,728
Change: +20,440
14.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-532,819
Change: +1,479
-26.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.928 EUR/MWh (+0.696). JKM prices increased to 19.965 USD/MMBtu (+0.135). JKM is trading at a premium of 3.037 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.928
+0.696Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-05
JKM Prices
19.965
+0.135Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-05
JKM-TTF Spread
3.037
17.94%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-05
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.6
18.8
17.0
15.2
13.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 16.928 |
| JUN 26 | 17.020 |
| JUL 26 | 17.026 |
| AUG 26 | 17.031 |
| SEP 26 | 17.032 |
| OCT 26 | 16.972 |
| NOV 26 | 16.989 |
| DEC 26 | 17.015 |
| JAN 27 | 16.945 |
| FEB 27 | 16.795 |
| MAR 27 | 15.947 |
| APR 27 | 13.970 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 19.965 |
| JUN 26 | 18.340 |
| JUL 26 | 18.610 |
| AUG 26 | 18.405 |
| SEP 26 | 18.205 |
| OCT 26 | 17.545 |
| NOV 26 | 17.450 |
| DEC 26 | 17.770 |
| JAN 27 | 17.515 |
| FEB 27 | 17.350 |
| MAR 27 | 16.065 |
| APR 27 | 14.340 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-06 to 2026-04-04
Latest LNG Flow
19.00
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.00
(+0.0%)
30-Day Average
18.99
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | 19.30 | N/A |
| 2026-03-27 | 19.00 | -0.30 |
| 2026-03-28 | 19.50 | +0.50 |
| 2026-03-29 | 19.50 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | 19.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-31 | 18.90 | -0.50 |
| 2026-04-01 | 18.80 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-02 | 19.00 | +0.20 |
| 2026-04-03 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-04 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.2
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
38
Last Updated:
2026-04-05 23:47:32
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- Market Uncertainty Rises Amid Mixed Signals About Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.83
Closest Support:
$2.78
1.77% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.97
40.28% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.78
Support
0.236
$3.97
Resistance
0.382
$4.7
0.5
$5.3
0.618
$5.9
0.786
$6.75
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.2
1.618
$10.95
2.0
$12.88
2.618
$16.0
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.8
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-05 23:47:32
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.29%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | $2.79 | $2.59 | $3.0 |
| 2026-04-04 | $2.81 | $2.6 | $3.01 |
| 2026-04-05 | $2.81 | $2.6 | $3.01 |
| 2026-04-06 | $2.81 | $2.61 | $3.02 |
| 2026-04-07 | $2.81 | $2.61 | $3.02 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.29% for the next trading day (2026-04-03), reaching $2.79.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-03 and 2026-04-07.
- The average confidence interval width is ~14.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.78, while resistance is noted at 3.97. Traders should be cautious of potential price movements, as the ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.29% within a range of 2.59 to 3.0. This could present short-term risks for long positions, but also opportunities for short trades if prices approach resistance.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -5.33 BCFD with a notable change of +12.70. This indicates a tightening supply situation which may influence production planning. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines, especially given the moderately bearish technical outlook and low demand forecasts in residential and commercial sectors. Monitoring geopolitical developments is also crucial, as they can impact market sentiment.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the current weather outlook indicating low heating and cooling demand, consumers should prepare for stable but potentially fluctuating costs. The fundamental balance reflects a tightening market, which could lead to supply reliability risks if demand unexpectedly increases. It may be prudent to explore procurement strategies or hedging options to manage costs effectively in this uncertain environment.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a complex picture with a moderately bearish technical sentiment juxtaposed with an overall bullish news sentiment score of +0.200. The primary driving factors include the fundamental balance deficit and low weather-driven demand forecasts. Analysts should monitor how geopolitical uncertainties affect sentiment and potentially shift market dynamics, especially in crude oil. A comprehensive view of these factors will be essential for forecasting and advising clients.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for specific advice tailored to your situation.