Natural gas is trading like a market that just discovered it overpacked for the trip, sliding to ~$2.80 as a +36 Bcf injection (vs a -4 Bcf 5-year avg draw) flipped storage into a +54 Bcf surplus almost overnight. Under the hood, the math is blunt: ~111.8 Bcf/d of production is running circles around ~72.6 Bcf/d of demand, while inventories sit at 1.865 Tcf (+5.2% y/y, ~3% above the 5-year average), which is about as bearish as a spreadsheet can get. Weather isn’t helping either, with above-normal temperatures across the eastern U.S. muting demand just as injection season hits its stride, setting the stage for early builds that could push EOS storage toward 3.7–3.9 Tcf.
But zoom out and the plot thickens… because globally, gas is anything but comfortable. Europe is limping along at just 28% storage (vs 41% normal), while ~17% of Ras Laffan capacity, representing roughly 20% of global LNG supply, is impaired for potentially 3–5 years, quietly tightening the global balance. That tension is already showing up in LNG flows holding near ~20 Bcf/d, suggesting U.S. gas is one geopolitical headline away from being drafted into the global supply chain.
So where are we headed? Near-term, the weight of strong injections, high production, and soft demand likely keeps pressure on prices toward the low $2.70s or below, but the longer-term setup is starting to look like a coiled spring… where any disruption, demand surprise, or production stall could snap prices back toward the $3.25–$3.45 zone faster than traders can refresh their weather models.
* Nat Gas is starting off April moving sideways as weather is showing more bearish than bullish but overall NG seems undervalued here (although many analysts believe we are overvalued here)
* Natty is targeting a move back to $3 again (as the fundamentals are pointed that way) - there is not a lot of bullish momentum - but expectations for a mild spring could shift as we are starting to get early heat - this will usher in a faster start to CDD and power demand.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-07 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas has taken a dive, trading around $2.80 as a hefty 36 Bcf injection flipped storage into a 54 Bcf surplus. With production outpacing demand (111.8 Bcf/d vs. 72.6 Bcf/d) and inventory levels soaring to 1.865 Tcf (+5.2% y/y), bearish sentiment reigns. However, globally, the landscape is tightening, with Europe at just 28% storage and some LNG supply hindered for years. While short-term pressures keep prices low, disruptions could send them soaring back toward the $3.25–$3.45 range faster than you can say "natural gas."
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.0 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 11.7 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 5.33 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.75
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.89
MA(20): $2.99
Current Price is 2.75, 9 day MA 2.89, 20 day MA 2.99
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.117
Signal: -0.1096
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 38.79
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 38.79 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 12,072
Avg (20d): 108,857
Ratio: 0.11
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 1.51
%D: 4.72
Stochastic %K: 1.51, %D: 4.72. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 10.72
+DI: 19.37
-DI: 20.13
ADX: 10.72 (+DI: 19.37, -DI: 20.13). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -98.49
Williams %R: -98.49 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.27
Middle: 2.99
Lower: 2.71
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.27, Middle: 2.99, Lower: 2.71
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.3 | 108.1 | 105.2 | 102.4 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| Total Supply | 112.6 | 111.6 | 110.1 | 106.87 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.5 | 24.8 | 23.1 | 23.53 |
| Electric Power Demand | 32.8 | 31.1 | 28.1 | 29.03 |
| Residential & Commercial | 28.7 | 39.2 | 20.8 | 26.5 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 19.5 | 16.2 | 14.03 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.0 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.9 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 117.93 | 129.63 | 101.9 | 106.47 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -5.33 | -18.03 | 8.2 | 0.4 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
70.0 HDD
-38.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
71.0 HDD
-30.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
13.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
11.0 CDD
+4.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/30 | 9.0 | 16.0 | -7.0 |
| 03/31 | 6.0 | 16.0 | -10.0 |
| 04/01 | 11.0 | 15.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/02 | 12.0 | 15.0 | -3.0 |
| 04/03 | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/04 | 9.0 | 15.0 | -6.0 |
| 04/05 | 13.0 | 16.0 | -3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | 18.0 | 15.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/08 | 15.0 | 15.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/09 | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/10 | 8.0 | 15.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/11 | 8.0 | 14.0 | -6.0 |
| 04/12 | 7.0 | 14.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/13 | 5.0 | 13.0 | -8.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/30 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 03/31 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/01 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/02 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/03 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/04 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/05 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/08 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/09 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/11 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/12 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/13 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +3.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.99
Daily:
-0.99 (-0.99%)
Weekly:
-0.97 (-0.97%)
US_10Y
4.34
Daily:
0.01 (0.18%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.74%)
SP500
6616.85
Daily:
5.02 (0.08%)
Weekly:
88.33 (1.35%)
VIX
25.78
Daily:
1.61 (6.66%)
Weekly:
0.53 (2.1%)
GOLD
4830.2
Daily:
173.4 (3.72%)
Weekly:
182.6 (3.93%)
COPPER
5.7
Daily:
0.12 (2.18%)
Weekly:
0.12 (2.1%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-31
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,514,508
Change: +10,456
Managed Money
-67,616
Change: -13,461
-4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-17,250
Change: -6,340
-1.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
165,678
Change: +2,020
10.9% of OI
Other Reportables
-99,840
Change: +18,612
-6.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-03-31
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,030,970
Change: +28,905
Managed Money
73,347
Change: -20,989
3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
287,728
Change: +20,440
14.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-532,819
Change: +1,479
-26.2% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 16.928 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices remained stable to 19.965 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 3.037 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.928
+0.000Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-07
JKM Prices
19.965
+0.000Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-07
JKM-TTF Spread
3.037
17.94%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-07
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.6
18.8
17.0
15.2
13.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 16.928 |
| JUN 26 | 17.020 |
| JUL 26 | 17.026 |
| AUG 26 | 17.031 |
| SEP 26 | 17.032 |
| OCT 26 | 16.972 |
| NOV 26 | 16.989 |
| DEC 26 | 17.015 |
| JAN 27 | 16.945 |
| FEB 27 | 16.795 |
| MAR 27 | 15.947 |
| APR 27 | 13.970 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 19.965 |
| JUN 26 | 18.340 |
| JUL 26 | 18.610 |
| AUG 26 | 18.405 |
| SEP 26 | 18.205 |
| OCT 26 | 17.545 |
| NOV 26 | 17.450 |
| DEC 26 | 17.770 |
| JAN 27 | 17.515 |
| FEB 27 | 17.350 |
| MAR 27 | 16.065 |
| APR 27 | 14.340 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-08 to 2026-04-06
Latest LNG Flow
19.40
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.10
(+0.5%)
30-Day Average
19.04
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
18.20
BCF/D
Data Points
30
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | 19.50 | N/A |
| 2026-03-29 | 19.50 | +0.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | 19.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-31 | 18.90 | -0.50 |
| 2026-04-01 | 18.80 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-02 | 19.00 | +0.20 |
| 2026-04-03 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-04 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-05 | 19.30 | +0.30 |
| 2026-04-06 | 19.40 | +0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.35
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
76
Last Updated:
2026-04-07 23:47:44
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
- Latin America Less Exposed to Crude Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises Amid Supply-Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise Amid Increased Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.75
Closest Support:
$2.74
0.36% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.94
43.27% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.74
Support
0.236
$3.94
Resistance
0.382
$4.68
0.5
$5.28
0.618
$5.88
0.786
$6.74
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.21
1.618
$10.97
2.0
$12.91
2.618
$16.06
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.87
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-07 23:47:45
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.01%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | $2.87 | $2.67 | $3.07 |
| 2026-04-09 | $2.88 | $2.68 | $3.08 |
| 2026-04-10 | $2.87 | $2.67 | $3.07 |
| 2026-04-11 | $2.87 | $2.67 | $3.07 |
| 2026-04-12 | $2.87 | $2.66 | $3.07 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.01% for the next trading day (2026-04-08), reaching $2.87.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-08 and 2026-04-12.
- The average confidence interval width is ~14.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level stands at 2.74 while resistance is at 3.94. Traders should be cautious of potential price volatility as the ML price forecast suggests a slight decline of 0.01%, with a trading range between 2.67 and 3.07. This presents short-term opportunities, but also risks if the market sentiment shifts unexpectedly.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -5.33 BCFD, which may affect production planning and hedging strategies. The overall market sentiment is bullish with a positive sentiment score of +0.375, indicating potential demand recovery. Producers should monitor the moderate heating and cooling demands across regions, especially given the cooling dominance in the Northeast and South, which may influence gas consumption patterns.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With moderate heating demand expected, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The current market sentiment is bullish, but the fundamental balance indicates a supply deficit, which could pose reliability risks. It is advisable for consumers to consider hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of price volatility, especially as the ML price forecast indicates a slight downward trend.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a moderately bearish technical outlook, contrasted by a bullish overall sentiment. Key driving factors include the fundamental supply deficit of -5.33 BCFD and regional weather patterns favoring cooling demand. Analysts should focus on these dynamics as they may indicate shifts in market behavior and pricing trends moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.