Henry Hub entered April at a six-month low of $2.82/MMBtu — rolling from a $3.10 April contract expiration on March 27 into a $2.89 May open — and has spent the week drifting softer on mild temperatures, robust production near 110 Bcf/day, and a Permian Basin so oversupplied that Waha Hub has traded negative prices on 82% of days in 2026, while simultaneously the global LNG market was experiencing the most severe disruption since the 1970s: Qatar's Ras Laffan complex, accounting for ~20% of global LNG supply, sustained Iranian missile damage on March 18 with a confirmed repair timeline of up to five years, U.S. LNG feedgas flows hit an all-time record of 19.7 Bcf/day on March 28 as terminals ran at maximum capacity chasing the extraordinary Henry Hub–TTF spread of $14.89/MMBtu (up 83% from February) and the Henry Hub–JKM spread of $15.23/MMBtu (up 98%), and today's ceasefire announcement sent TTF tumbling ~20% and JKM poised to fall ~17% — narrowing but emphatically not closing the arb — while the U.S. domestic price sat unmoved, capped by infrastructure that is physically maxed out at ~19–20 Bcf/day of export capacity, meaning the molecule bottleneck is steel and concrete, not supply, and the forward curve is already pricing the real risk: December 2026 near $4.70 and January 2027 near $5.10, because the market knows next winter is where this story gets interesting. LNG: Watch where the Henry Hub–TTF spread settles after the ceasefire dust clears. Pre-crisis it ran $3–4/MMBtu. It hit $14.89. If it lands in the $8–10 range post-ceasefire, U.S. terminals are still running flat out and the domestic demand floor holds. If it compresses below $6, feedgas economics shift and the domestic balance loosens further — that's your $2.50 Henry Hub scenario. Key level: The December 2026 contract near $4.70 is the market's real-time referendum on whether Europe successfully rebuilds storage this summer. Watch it weekly. It is more informative than the spot price right now — the spot is weather and production noise, the Dec contract is the structural signal. Bear risk: Shoulder season is arriving into a domestic market that is already soft — production at 110 Bcf/day, storage entering injection season at 3% above the five-year average, and mild spring forecasts across the lower 48. If the ceasefire narrows the arb materially and feedgas demand softens even 1–2 Bcf/day, the domestic price has no near-term floor other than producer economics. The $2.40–$2.60 range is not crazy in a full-resolution scenario. Bull risk: Qatar's Ras Laffan is offline for up to five years — that is not a geopolitical variable, it is a physical infrastructure variable that survives any ceasefire and any diplomatic outcome. Europe must refill storage from a structurally smaller global LNG pool, competing with Asia all summer. If storage build lags behind seasonal norms by July, TotalEnergies' CEO's $40/MMBtu TTF call starts looking prescient — and that re-widens the arb, re-anchors the Dec contract above $5, and the U.S. domestic bull thesis reactivates fast. Golden Pass LNG Train 1 just came online at Sabine Pass (~0.3 Bcf/day of new feedgas demand), and more capacity is coming from Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage 3 through 2026–2027. Each new train tightens the domestic balance incrementally and raises the structural floor. The EIA already projects LNG exports hitting 18.6 Bcf/day in 2027 — the insulation that kept Henry Hub cheap for a decade is slowly dissolving, and the market hasn't fully priced that yet.