After getting some lift in early market trading (mainly from sympathy trading activity with crude oil to start the day), NG dropped down below the key bull/bear line of 2.715. Mild weather and outlook for 5 bcfd below the seasonal average is weighing heavy on NG - but bear in mind that storage is not THAT bearish and is likely undervalued for the supply/demand balance that we have right now.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-13 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas prices are currently feeling the heat, retreating below the critical bull/bear line of 2.715 due to mild weather and a supply glut pushing demand 5 Bcf/d below seasonal averages. Recent articles highlight a 17-month low in U.S. natgas prices, with sympathy trading linked to crude oil’s movements. However, European markets are experiencing price increases, suggesting a potential divergence. As storage levels remain less bearish, traders should monitor weather patterns and geopolitical developments closely.
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.9 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 2.13 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.61
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.76
MA(20): $2.9
Current Price is 2.61, 9 day MA 2.76, 20 day MA 2.9
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.1373
Signal: -0.1199
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 35.32
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 35.32 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,185
Avg (20d): 111,026
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 0.19
%D: 2.31
Stochastic %K: 0.19, %D: 2.31. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 10.08
+DI: 17.34
-DI: 21.91
ADX: 10.08 (+DI: 17.34, -DI: 21.91). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -99.81
Williams %R: -99.81 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.21
Middle: 2.9
Lower: 2.59
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.21, Middle: 2.9, Lower: 2.59
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.7 | 108.3 | 105.8 | 102.43 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.2 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 5.2 |
| Total Supply | 113.9 | 112.6 | 112.4 | 107.67 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.2 | 22.5 | 23.6 | 23.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 29.6 | 32.8 | 30.3 | 29.73 |
| Residential & Commercial | 29.0 | 28.7 | 24.7 | 23.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.8 | 16.6 | 14.33 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.0 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 116.03 | 117.93 | 108.8 | 104.57 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -2.13 | -5.33 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
93.0 HDD
-13.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
35.0 HDD
-48.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
4.0 CDD
-3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
31.0 CDD
+24.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05 | 13.0 | 16.0 | -3.0 |
| 04/06 | 15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/07 | 17.0 | 15.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/08 | 15.0 | 15.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/09 | 12.0 | 15.0 | -3.0 |
| 04/10 | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/11 | 11.0 | 14.0 | -3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/13 | 5.0 | 13.0 | -8.0 |
| 04/14 | 4.0 | 13.0 | -9.0 |
| 04/15 | 4.0 | 12.0 | -8.0 |
| 04/16 | 4.0 | 11.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/17 | 4.0 | 12.0 | -8.0 |
| 04/18 | 6.0 | 11.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/19 | 8.0 | 11.0 | -3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/06 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/07 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/08 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/09 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/13 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/14 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +4.0 |
| 04/15 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +4.0 |
| 04/16 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +4.0 |
| 04/17 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +4.0 |
| 04/18 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +4.0 |
| 04/19 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.37
Daily:
-0.28 (-0.29%)
Weekly:
-1.27 (-1.28%)
US_10Y
4.3
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.46%)
Weekly:
-0.05 (-1.06%)
SP500
6886.24
Daily:
69.35 (1.02%)
Weekly:
269.39 (4.07%)
VIX
19.12
Daily:
-0.11 (-0.57%)
Weekly:
-6.66 (-25.83%)
GOLD
4789.4
Daily:
27.5 (0.58%)
Weekly:
132.3 (2.84%)
COPPER
6.01
Daily:
0.14 (2.38%)
Weekly:
0.47 (8.4%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-07
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,558,863
Change: +44,355
Managed Money
-86,033
Change: -18,417
-5.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-9,428
Change: +7,822
-0.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
171,515
Change: +5,837
11.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-97,954
Change: +1,886
-6.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-07
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,037,857
Change: +6,887
Managed Money
78,700
Change: +5,353
3.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,113
Change: +5,385
14.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-523,579
Change: +9,240
-25.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 15.493 EUR/MWh (-0.568). JKM prices decreased to 19.420 USD/MMBtu (-0.075). JKM is trading at a premium of 3.927 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.493
-0.568Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-13
JKM Prices
19.420
-0.075Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-13
JKM-TTF Spread
3.927
25.35%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-13
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.1
18.0
15.9
13.8
11.7
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 15.493 |
| JUN 26 | 15.040 |
| JUL 26 | 15.032 |
| AUG 26 | 15.020 |
| SEP 26 | 15.040 |
| OCT 26 | 15.029 |
| NOV 26 | 14.954 |
| DEC 26 | 14.988 |
| JAN 27 | 14.950 |
| FEB 27 | 14.789 |
| MAR 27 | 14.075 |
| APR 27 | 12.415 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 19.420 |
| JUN 26 | 16.530 |
| JUL 26 | 16.605 |
| AUG 26 | 16.580 |
| SEP 26 | 16.375 |
| OCT 26 | 15.890 |
| NOV 26 | 15.695 |
| DEC 26 | 16.000 |
| JAN 27 | 15.785 |
| FEB 27 | 15.345 |
| MAR 27 | 14.410 |
| APR 27 | 12.995 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-14 to 2026-04-07
Latest LNG Flow
17.80
BCF/D
Daily Change
-1.60
(-8.2%)
30-Day Average
19.03
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.80
BCF/D
Data Points
25
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | 19.50 | N/A |
| 2026-03-30 | 19.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-31 | 18.90 | -0.50 |
| 2026-04-01 | 18.80 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-02 | 19.00 | +0.20 |
| 2026-04-03 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-04 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-05 | 19.30 | +0.30 |
| 2026-04-06 | 19.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-04-07 | 17.80 | -1.60 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.233
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
85
Last Updated:
2026-04-13 23:47:24
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Shorter Timeline to Onshore Inventory 'Angst' Likely Amid U.S. Blockade of Iranian Oil — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Energy Supply Disruptions Could Continue in Coming Months — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Global Inflation Likely to Rise Amid Oil Supply Shock — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Supply Relief from Persian Gulf Will Take Weeks to Materialize, Goldman Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (1 articles)
- China Might Weather Oil-Price Shock Better Than Regional Peers — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.61
Closest Support:
$2.61
0.0% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.84
47.13% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.61
Current Price
0.236
$3.84
Resistance
0.382
$4.6
0.5
$5.22
0.618
$5.83
0.786
$6.71
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.25
1.618
$11.05
2.0
$13.05
2.618
$16.27
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.63
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-13 23:47:25
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.16%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | $2.63 | $2.44 | $2.83 |
| 2026-04-15 | $2.64 | $2.44 | $2.83 |
| 2026-04-16 | $2.64 | $2.45 | $2.84 |
| 2026-04-17 | $2.64 | $2.45 | $2.84 |
| 2026-04-18 | $2.64 | $2.45 | $2.84 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.16% for the next trading day (2026-04-14), reaching $2.63.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-14 and 2026-04-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~14.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci levels indicate support at 2.61 and resistance at 3.84, which traders should monitor closely for potential price movements. The ML price forecast predicts a slight uptick of 0.16%, indicating potential short-term opportunities. However, traders should remain cautious of volatility stemming from the current fundamental balance of -2.13 BCFD, which may influence price dynamics.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market sentiment reflects a cautious outlook, particularly with the fundamental balance indicating a decline of 2.13 BCFD. Producers should consider adjusting production planning to align with anticipated demand fluctuations driven by the moderate heating demand across regions. Additionally, with sentiment for natural gas remaining flat, hedging strategies may need to adapt to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the fundamental balance reflecting a decrease of 2.13 BCFD. The weather outlook indicates a dominance of heating demand, which may lead to increased prices in the near term. It is advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to manage risks associated with supply reliability and price volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market presents a complex picture with a moderately bearish technical outlook and a fundamental balance of -2.13 BCFD. Despite this, the overall market sentiment remains positive, driven by geopolitical factors and potential supply disruptions. Analysts should focus on the interplay between heating demand and the ML price forecast, which suggests a slight upward trend, indicating possible shifts in market dynamics that could affect future pricing strategies.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.