US Gas Demand is not in a good place as spots in Texas and California turned negative on physical prices. Gas production is relatively flat but slight rise while LNG exports are going strong - but the lead is demand is terrible - but we’re in April so expected low demand. The 4 week outlook shows that we maybe have 50 BCF more than the 5 year average - being 4.8% over the 5 year average does not paint an overly bearish view in my mind. We are looking at a low point before summer heat sets in. $3 to $3.449 is the next stop - but traders will need a reason to bring it there - question is whether we see that before May?
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-14 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are feeling the chill, sinking to a 17-month low due to mild weather dampening demand, especially in Texas and California. Current production is stable, but with LNG exports steady, the overall demand outlook remains weak. Interestingly, we sit about 50 BCF above the five-year average, suggesting the bearish sentiment might be overstated. With prices hovering between $3 and $3.449, traders are on edge, waiting for a spark to reignite interest before summer's heat kicks in. Keep an eye on upcoming weather patterns!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.9 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 2.13 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.59
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.73
MA(20): $2.88
Current Price is 2.59, 9 day MA 2.73, 20 day MA 2.88
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.1416
Signal: -0.124
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 34.75
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 34.75 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,212
Avg (20d): 112,270
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 2.21
%D: 2.79
Stochastic %K: 2.21, %D: 2.79. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 9.65
+DI: 17.88
-DI: 21.58
ADX: 9.65 (+DI: 17.88, -DI: 21.58). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -97.79
Williams %R: -97.79 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.21
Middle: 2.88
Lower: 2.55
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.21, Middle: 2.88, Lower: 2.55
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.7 | 108.3 | 105.8 | 102.43 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.2 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 5.2 |
| Total Supply | 113.9 | 112.6 | 112.4 | 107.67 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.2 | 22.5 | 23.6 | 23.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 29.6 | 32.8 | 30.3 | 29.73 |
| Residential & Commercial | 29.0 | 28.7 | 24.7 | 23.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.8 | 16.6 | 14.33 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.0 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 116.03 | 117.93 | 108.8 | 104.57 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -2.13 | -5.33 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
89.0 HDD
-15.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
45.0 HDD
-35.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
4.0 CDD
-3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
27.0 CDD
+19.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06 | 15.0 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/07 | 17.0 | 15.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/08 | 15.0 | 15.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/09 | 12.0 | 15.0 | -3.0 |
| 04/10 | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/11 | 11.0 | 14.0 | -3.0 |
| 04/12 | 9.0 | 14.0 | -5.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/14 | 4.0 | 13.0 | -9.0 |
| 04/15 | 4.0 | 12.0 | -8.0 |
| 04/16 | 4.0 | 11.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/17 | 4.0 | 12.0 | -8.0 |
| 04/18 | 6.0 | 11.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/19 | 10.0 | 11.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/20 | 13.0 | 10.0 | +3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/07 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/08 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/09 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/12 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/14 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +4.0 |
| 04/15 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +4.0 |
| 04/16 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +4.0 |
| 04/17 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +4.0 |
| 04/18 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/19 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/20 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.18
Daily:
-0.19 (-0.2%)
Weekly:
-0.95 (-0.96%)
US_10Y
4.26
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.95%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.82%)
SP500
6967.38
Daily:
81.14 (1.18%)
Weekly:
184.57 (2.72%)
VIX
18.36
Daily:
-0.76 (-3.97%)
Weekly:
-2.68 (-12.74%)
GOLD
4850.9
Daily:
108.5 (2.29%)
Weekly:
101.4 (2.13%)
COPPER
6.11
Daily:
0.13 (2.17%)
Weekly:
0.35 (6.01%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-07
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,558,863
Change: +44,355
Managed Money
-86,033
Change: -18,417
-5.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-9,428
Change: +7,822
-0.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
171,515
Change: +5,837
11.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-97,954
Change: +1,886
-6.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-07
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,037,857
Change: +6,887
Managed Money
78,700
Change: +5,353
3.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,113
Change: +5,385
14.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-523,579
Change: +9,240
-25.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.089 EUR/MWh (+0.596). JKM prices increased to 19.440 USD/MMBtu (+0.020). JKM is trading at a premium of 3.351 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.089
+0.596Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-14
JKM Prices
19.440
+0.020Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-14
JKM-TTF Spread
3.351
20.83%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-14
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.1
18.1
16.2
14.2
12.2
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 16.089 |
| JUN 26 | 15.889 |
| JUL 26 | 15.849 |
| AUG 26 | 15.775 |
| SEP 26 | 15.764 |
| OCT 26 | 15.734 |
| NOV 26 | 15.596 |
| DEC 26 | 15.616 |
| JAN 27 | 15.564 |
| FEB 27 | 15.407 |
| MAR 27 | 14.666 |
| APR 27 | 12.862 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 19.440 |
| JUN 26 | 17.400 |
| JUL 26 | 17.385 |
| AUG 26 | 17.175 |
| SEP 26 | 16.890 |
| OCT 26 | 16.370 |
| NOV 26 | 16.115 |
| DEC 26 | 16.385 |
| JAN 27 | 16.195 |
| FEB 27 | 15.970 |
| MAR 27 | 14.810 |
| APR 27 | 13.190 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-15 to 2026-04-07
Latest LNG Flow
17.80
BCF/D
Daily Change
-1.60
(-8.2%)
30-Day Average
19.03
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.80
BCF/D
Data Points
24
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | 19.50 | N/A |
| 2026-03-30 | 19.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-31 | 18.90 | -0.50 |
| 2026-04-01 | 18.80 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-02 | 19.00 | +0.20 |
| 2026-04-03 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-04 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-05 | 19.30 | +0.30 |
| 2026-04-06 | 19.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-04-07 | 17.80 | -1.60 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.35
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
91
Last Updated:
2026-04-14 23:47:35
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (2 articles)
- OPEC Holds 2026 Oil Demand Outlook Despite Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- South Korea Crude Imports Set to Fall in April, May Amid Mideast Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- Fed's Goolsbee: Oil Shows People Expect Short Term Conflict in Iran — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC Holds 2026 Oil Demand Outlook Despite Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Threat to Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Likely Further Escalates Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
- Canada Could Hike Rates Earlier Than Forecast Due to Oil Prices — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.59
Closest Support:
$2.58
0.39% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.82
47.49% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.58
Support
0.236
$3.82
Resistance
0.382
$4.58
0.5
$5.2
0.618
$5.82
0.786
$6.7
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.25
1.618
$11.07
2.0
$13.07
2.618
$16.32
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.6
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-14 23:47:36
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.34%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | $2.61 | $2.42 | $2.8 |
| 2026-04-16 | $2.61 | $2.42 | $2.8 |
| 2026-04-17 | $2.61 | $2.42 | $2.8 |
| 2026-04-18 | $2.61 | $2.42 | $2.8 |
| 2026-04-19 | $2.62 | $2.43 | $2.8 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.34% for the next trading day (2026-04-15), reaching $2.61.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-15 and 2026-04-19.
- The average confidence interval width is ~14.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment with a score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.58 and resistance at 3.82. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility, especially given the fundamental balance of -2.13 BCFD, indicating a tightening market. The ML price forecast suggests a slight increase of 0.34%, with a projected range of 2.42 to 2.8. This presents short-term opportunities, but the bearish technical indicators imply risks of downward pressure.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market sentiment indicates challenges for production planning, particularly with the fundamental balance showing a negative shift of +3.20. Producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines. The weather outlook suggests moderate heating demand across most regions, which could influence production needs. Additionally, the news sentiment around crude oil remains mixed, necessitating close monitoring of geopolitical developments to inform operational decisions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment leans bearish, and the fundamental balance indicates tightening supply. The weather outlook shows a predominance of heating demand, which may increase prices in the short term. It is advisable for consumers to consider strategic procurement measures or hedging options to manage exposure to price volatility, particularly as the ML forecast indicates a slight upward trend in prices.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape presents a bearish outlook with a technical score of -2/5, influenced by a fundamental imbalance of -2.13 BCFD. The weather patterns indicate a strong heating demand across key regions, which may support prices in the short term. However, the overall news sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, particularly regarding crude oil. Analysts should focus on the convergence of these factors to identify potential shifts in market dynamics, particularly as geopolitical tensions could further influence supply and demand.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.