US Gas Demand is not in a good place as spots in Texas and California turned negative on physical prices. Gas production is relatively flat but slight rise while LNG exports are going strong - but the lead is demand is terrible - but we’re in April so expected low demand. The 4 week outlook shows that we maybe have 50 BCF more than the 5 year average - being 4.8% over the 5 year average does not paint an overly bearish view in my mind. We are looking at a low point before summer heat sets in. $3 to $3.449 is the next stop - but traders will need a reason to bring it there - question is whether we see that before May?
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-15 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices remain near a 17-month low, struggling under the weight of weak demand, particularly in Texas and California, where physical prices have turned negative. Despite a slight uptick in production and strong LNG exports, storage levels are approximately 50 BCF above the five-year average, suggesting a bearish outlook. However, with warmer weather on the horizon, traders are eyeing the $3 to $3.449 range as the next potential target—if demand can provide the spark before May. Stay tuned!
Executive Summary
Total supply increased by 1.3 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.9 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 2.13 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.6
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.7
MA(20): $2.86
Current Price is 2.6, 9 day MA 2.7, 20 day MA 2.86
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.1439
Signal: -0.1279
Days since crossover: 6
MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 34.8
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 34.8 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,398
Avg (20d): 115,866
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 6.04
%D: 5.05
Stochastic %K: 6.04, %D: 5.05. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 9.89
+DI: 17.23
-DI: 21.62
ADX: 9.89 (+DI: 17.23, -DI: 21.62). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -93.96
Williams %R: -93.96 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.2
Middle: 2.86
Lower: 2.52
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.2, Middle: 2.86, Lower: 2.52
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 108.7 | 108.3 | 105.8 | 102.43 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 5.2 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 5.2 |
| Total Supply | 113.9 | 112.6 | 112.4 | 107.67 |
| Industrial Demand | 23.2 | 22.5 | 23.6 | 23.3 |
| Electric Power Demand | 29.6 | 32.8 | 30.3 | 29.73 |
| Residential & Commercial | 29.0 | 28.7 | 24.7 | 23.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 18.8 | 16.6 | 14.33 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 5.83 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 7.0 | 7.33 |
| Total Demand | 116.03 | 117.93 | 108.8 | 104.57 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -2.13 | -5.33 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
80.0 HDD
-21.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
58.0 HDD
-19.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
6.0 CDD
-1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
23.0 CDD
+14.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | 17.0 | 15.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/08 | 15.0 | 15.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/09 | 12.0 | 15.0 | -3.0 |
| 04/10 | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/11 | 11.0 | 14.0 | -3.0 |
| 04/12 | 9.0 | 14.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/13 | 6.0 | 13.0 | -7.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/15 | 4.0 | 12.0 | -8.0 |
| 04/16 | 4.0 | 11.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/17 | 5.0 | 12.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/18 | 7.0 | 11.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/19 | 11.0 | 11.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/20 | 15.0 | 10.0 | +5.0 |
| 04/21 | 12.0 | 10.0 | +2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/08 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/09 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/12 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/13 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/15 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +4.0 |
| 04/16 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +4.0 |
| 04/17 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +4.0 |
| 04/18 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/19 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/20 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/21 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.92
Daily:
-0.2 (-0.21%)
Weekly:
-0.9 (-0.91%)
US_10Y
4.28
Daily:
0.03 (0.61%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.26%)
SP500
7022.95
Daily:
55.57 (0.8%)
Weekly:
198.29 (2.91%)
VIX
18.17
Daily:
-0.19 (-1.03%)
Weekly:
-1.32 (-6.77%)
GOLD
4843.6
Daily:
18.6 (0.39%)
Weekly:
51.4 (1.07%)
COPPER
6.11
Daily:
0.04 (0.71%)
Weekly:
0.37 (6.36%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-07
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,558,863
Change: +44,355
Managed Money
-86,033
Change: -18,417
-5.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-9,428
Change: +7,822
-0.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
171,515
Change: +5,837
11.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-97,954
Change: +1,886
-6.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-07
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,037,857
Change: +6,887
Managed Money
78,700
Change: +5,353
3.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,113
Change: +5,385
14.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-523,579
Change: +9,240
-25.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 15.530 EUR/MWh (-0.559). JKM prices decreased to 19.350 USD/MMBtu (-0.090). JKM is trading at a premium of 3.820 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.530
-0.559Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-15
JKM Prices
19.350
-0.090Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-15
JKM-TTF Spread
3.820
24.60%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-15
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
20.1
17.9
15.8
13.7
11.6
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 15.530 |
| JUN 26 | 14.990 |
| JUL 26 | 14.955 |
| AUG 26 | 14.915 |
| SEP 26 | 14.938 |
| OCT 26 | 14.885 |
| NOV 26 | 14.754 |
| DEC 26 | 14.770 |
| JAN 27 | 14.696 |
| FEB 27 | 14.535 |
| MAR 27 | 13.860 |
| APR 27 | 12.284 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 19.350 |
| JUN 26 | 16.350 |
| JUL 26 | 16.415 |
| AUG 26 | 16.205 |
| SEP 26 | 15.945 |
| OCT 26 | 15.460 |
| NOV 26 | 15.210 |
| DEC 26 | 15.485 |
| JAN 27 | 15.275 |
| FEB 27 | 15.095 |
| MAR 27 | 13.955 |
| APR 27 | 12.625 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-16 to 2026-04-07
Latest LNG Flow
17.80
BCF/D
Daily Change
-1.60
(-8.2%)
30-Day Average
19.02
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.80
BCF/D
Data Points
23
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | 19.50 | N/A |
| 2026-03-30 | 19.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-31 | 18.90 | -0.50 |
| 2026-04-01 | 18.80 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-02 | 19.00 | +0.20 |
| 2026-04-03 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-04 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-05 | 19.30 | +0.30 |
| 2026-04-06 | 19.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-04-07 | 17.80 | -1.60 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.35
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
121
Last Updated:
2026-04-15 23:47:29
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (2 articles)
- OPEC Holds 2026 Oil Demand Outlook Despite Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- South Korea Crude Imports Set to Fall in April, May Amid Mideast Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- Oil Unlikely to Return to Pre-Conflict Levels Soon, UBS Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Fed's Goolsbee: Oil Shows People Expect Short Term Conflict in Iran — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC Holds 2026 Oil Demand Outlook Despite Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Threat to Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Likely Further Escalates Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
- Canada Could Hike Rates Earlier Than Forecast Due to Oil Prices — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.6
Closest Support:
$2.56
1.54% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.8
46.15% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.56
Support
0.236
$3.8
Resistance
0.382
$4.57
0.5
$5.19
0.618
$5.82
0.786
$6.7
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.26
1.618
$11.08
2.0
$13.09
2.618
$16.35
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.61
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-15 23:47:30
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.0%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | $2.61 | $2.42 | $2.8 |
| 2026-04-17 | $2.62 | $2.43 | $2.8 |
| 2026-04-18 | $2.62 | $2.43 | $2.8 |
| 2026-04-19 | $2.62 | $2.43 | $2.8 |
| 2026-04-20 | $2.62 | $2.43 | $2.8 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.00% for the next trading day (2026-04-16), reaching $2.61.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-16 and 2026-04-20.
- The average confidence interval width is ~14.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Traders should note the moderately bearish technical interpretation with a score of -2/5. Current Fibonacci support is at 2.56 while resistance is at 3.8. The fundamental balance indicates a deficit of -2.13 BCFD, with a recent change of +3.20, suggesting potential downward pressure on prices. The ML price forecast for the next day is expected to trend downwards, indicating a range of 2.42 to 2.8. Traders should be cautious of volatility and consider short-term opportunities or risks based on these indicators.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should prepare for a bearish market sentiment as reflected by the overall news sentiment score of +0.350, with specific concerns around supply and demand dynamics. The fundamental balance shows a significant deficit, which may impact production planning and operational strategies. Given the moderate heating demand expected, producers may need to adjust their output accordingly. Hedging strategies should consider the current price volatility and market sentiment to mitigate risks.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should be aware of potential cost fluctuations in energy prices, especially with the current market sentiment and fundamental balance showing a deficit. The weather outlook indicates moderate heating demand and low cooling demand, which could affect supply reliability. As procurement strategies are reviewed, consumers should consider hedging options to mitigate potential price spikes and ensure stable supply.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
Analysts should focus on the convergence of bearish signals from technical indicators and fundamental balance data. The moderately bearish technical score and the expected ML price forecast indicate potential price declines. The news sentiment remains cautiously optimistic for crude oil but bearish for natural gas, suggesting that geopolitical factors and supply chain concerns could shift market dynamics significantly. Monitoring these driving factors will be crucial for forecasting future market trends.
Disclaimer: This analysis does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations. Please consult with a financial advisor for personalized guidance.