US Gas Demand is not in a good place as spots in Texas and California turned negative on physical prices. Gas production is relatively flat but slight rise while LNG exports are going strong - but the lead is demand is terrible - but we’re in April so expected low demand. The 4 week outlook shows that we maybe have 50 BCF more than the 5 year average - being 4.8% over the 5 year average does not paint an overly bearish view in my mind. We are looking at a low point before summer heat sets in. $3 to $3.449 is the next stop - but traders will need a reason to bring it there - question is whether we see that before May? Nat Gas is ending close to the 2.666 price support/resistance level - likely heading back to 2.762 - we are undervalued here - but will need a catalyst and the weather is just not showing it.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-16 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas markets are currently navigating a tricky landscape, with U.S. demand dipping and cash prices in Texas and California hitting record lows. Despite flat production and strong LNG exports, inventories are notably higher, with a 59 BCF increase, putting storage 4.8% above the five-year average. Although prices recently attempted a rebound, they remain close to a 17-month low. Traders eye the $3 to $3.449 range for potential movement, relying on catalysts like weather changes to spark renewed interest before summer heat kicks in.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 2.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.81 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 2.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.66
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.69
MA(20): $2.84
Current Price is 2.66, 9 day MA 2.69, 20 day MA 2.84
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.1387
Signal: -0.1299
Days since crossover: 7
MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 38.52
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 38.52 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,223
Avg (20d): 114,532
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 16.87
%D: 10.78
Stochastic %K: 16.87, %D: 10.78. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 9.55
+DI: 18.7
-DI: 20.72
ADX: 9.55 (+DI: 18.7, -DI: 20.72). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -83.13
Williams %R: -83.13 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.17
Middle: 2.84
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.17, Middle: 2.84, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.4 | 108.7 | 106.3 | 102.43 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 111.7 | 113.9 | 112.3 | 107.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.1 | 23.2 | 23.3 | 23.1 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.0 | 29.6 | 28.6 | 29.0 |
| Residential & Commercial | 24.7 | 29.0 | 21.1 | 21.0 |
| LNG Exports | 19.0 | 18.8 | 16.8 | 14.37 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 5.77 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.9 | 7.47 |
| Total Demand | 114.22 | 116.03 | 103.0 | 100.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -2.52 | -2.13 | 9.3 | 6.97 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
67.0 HDD
-32.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
60.0 HDD
-16.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
10.0 CDD
+3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
16.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | 15.0 | 15.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/09 | 12.0 | 15.0 | -3.0 |
| 04/10 | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/11 | 11.0 | 14.0 | -3.0 |
| 04/12 | 9.0 | 14.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/13 | 6.0 | 13.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/14 | 4.0 | 13.0 | -9.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/16 | 4.0 | 11.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/17 | 5.0 | 12.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/18 | 8.0 | 11.0 | -3.0 |
| 04/19 | 12.0 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/20 | 14.0 | 10.0 | +4.0 |
| 04/21 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/22 | 7.0 | 11.0 | -4.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/09 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/12 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/13 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/14 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +3.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/16 | 5.0 | 1.0 | +4.0 |
| 04/17 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/18 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/19 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/20 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/21 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/22 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.26
Daily:
0.2 (0.2%)
Weekly:
-0.39 (-0.4%)
US_10Y
4.31
Daily:
0.03 (0.63%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.19%)
SP500
7041.28
Daily:
18.33 (0.26%)
Weekly:
224.39 (3.29%)
VIX
17.94
Daily:
-0.23 (-1.27%)
Weekly:
-1.29 (-6.71%)
GOLD
4813.6
Daily:
13.6 (0.28%)
Weekly:
51.7 (1.09%)
COPPER
6.05
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.44%)
Weekly:
0.17 (2.98%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-07
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,558,863
Change: +44,355
Managed Money
-86,033
Change: -18,417
-5.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-9,428
Change: +7,822
-0.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
171,515
Change: +5,837
11.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-97,954
Change: +1,886
-6.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-07
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,037,857
Change: +6,887
Managed Money
78,700
Change: +5,353
3.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,113
Change: +5,385
14.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-523,579
Change: +9,240
-25.7% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 15.159 EUR/MWh (-0.371). JKM prices decreased to 19.198 USD/MMBtu (-0.152). JKM is trading at a premium of 4.039 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.159
-0.371Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-16
JKM Prices
19.198
-0.152Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-16
JKM-TTF Spread
4.039
26.64%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-16
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.9
17.8
15.6
13.4
11.3
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 15.159 |
| JUN 26 | 14.336 |
| JUL 26 | 14.344 |
| AUG 26 | 14.343 |
| SEP 26 | 14.355 |
| OCT 26 | 14.318 |
| NOV 26 | 14.200 |
| DEC 26 | 14.244 |
| JAN 27 | 14.181 |
| FEB 27 | 14.048 |
| MAR 27 | 13.485 |
| APR 27 | 11.974 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 19.198 |
| JUN 26 | 15.780 |
| JUL 26 | 15.910 |
| AUG 26 | 15.725 |
| SEP 26 | 15.445 |
| OCT 26 | 14.985 |
| NOV 26 | 14.735 |
| DEC 26 | 15.040 |
| JAN 27 | 14.845 |
| FEB 27 | 14.680 |
| MAR 27 | 13.660 |
| APR 27 | 12.350 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-17 to 2026-04-07
Latest LNG Flow
17.80
BCF/D
Daily Change
-1.60
(-8.2%)
30-Day Average
19.00
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.80
BCF/D
Data Points
22
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | 19.50 | N/A |
| 2026-03-30 | 19.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-31 | 18.90 | -0.50 |
| 2026-04-01 | 18.80 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-02 | 19.00 | +0.20 |
| 2026-04-03 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-04 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-05 | 19.30 | +0.30 |
| 2026-04-06 | 19.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-04-07 | 17.80 | -1.60 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
143
Last Updated:
2026-04-16 23:47:29
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
-0.6
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- US natgas prices sink to 17-month low as supply surges, demand declines Reuters
- Oil prices fall as hopes for US-Iran deal outweigh supply disruption concerns Reuters
- BP Plc Expects Q1 Upstream Production To Be Broadly Flat Sequentially dpa-AFX
- US crude futures fall over $1 as traders weigh supply risks Reuters
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- Iran Conflict Boosts Performance of G-10 Carry Trades — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Settles Flat As Market Awaits Conflict Developments — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Unlikely to Return to Pre-Conflict Levels Soon, UBS Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Fed's Goolsbee: Oil Shows People Expect Short Term Conflict in Iran — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC Holds 2026 Oil Demand Outlook Despite Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Threat to Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Likely Further Escalates Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (2 articles)
- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Settle Lower on Mild Weather — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Canada Could Hike Rates Earlier Than Forecast Due to Oil Prices — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.66
Closest Support:
$2.56
3.76% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.8
42.86% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.56
Support
0.236
$3.8
Resistance
0.382
$4.57
0.5
$5.19
0.618
$5.82
0.786
$6.7
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.26
1.618
$11.08
2.0
$13.09
2.618
$16.35
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.65
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-16 23:47:29
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.1%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | $2.65 | $2.48 | $2.82 |
| 2026-04-18 | $2.65 | $2.48 | $2.83 |
| 2026-04-19 | $2.65 | $2.48 | $2.82 |
| 2026-04-20 | $2.65 | $2.48 | $2.82 |
| 2026-04-21 | $2.65 | $2.48 | $2.82 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.10% for the next trading day (2026-04-17), reaching $2.65.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-17 and 2026-04-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~12.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Market indicators suggest a moderately bearish sentiment, with a fundamental balance of -2.52 BCFD and a technical score of -2/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.56 and resistance at 3.8. The ML price forecast indicates a slight increase of 0.10%, with a range of 2.48 to 2.82. This suggests potential short-term trading opportunities, but caution is warranted due to the overall bearish market sentiment reflected in the news sentiment score of -0.500.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market conditions indicate a need for careful production planning. With a negative sentiment surrounding both crude oil and natural gas, producers should consider adjusting their output to align with the fundamental balance of -2.52 BCFD. The bearish news sentiment surrounding crude oil, particularly regarding supply risks and production forecasts, suggests that hedging strategies may be prudent to mitigate potential price declines. Additionally, the mild weather forecast indicates low heating demand, which could further impact gas prices.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in natural gas, as prices are currently at a 17-month low due to supply surges and low demand. The cooling demand outlook suggests that heating needs will be minimal, which may provide opportunities for procurement at lower prices. However, the overall market sentiment remains negative, indicating that consumers should remain vigilant about any sudden market shifts that could affect supply reliability.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, primarily driven by low demand forecasts and a fundamental balance of -2.52 BCFD. The technical indicators point to resistance at 3.8 and support at 2.56, suggesting a consolidation phase. Analysts should focus on the implications of the mild weather outlook on demand and the potential for price volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward trend, but caution is advised given the prevailing bearish sentiment across multiple news sources.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.