HH at $2.70 is bouncing off recent lows but structurally pinned by the same forces that have been in place for weeks: storage at 1,911 Bcf (4.8% above 5yr avg), injection season running hot with back-to-back beats (50 Bcf and 59 Bcf the past two EIA reports vs. ~46 Bcf consensus), production near 109 Bcf/d and rising, and warm weather forecast through early May keeping heating demand near zero. The paradox hasn't moved — LNG exports are running 18.9 Bcf/d near-record and the HH–TTF arb at ~$12.30 is screaming, but terminal capacity is the hard ceiling on how many molecules can leave. Spot gas is a domestic story, not a global one, and domestically everything points lower. The one thing keeping traders from getting aggressively short: the December 2026 contract at $4.70 and Jan 2027 at $5.10 are still pricing serious winter risk, which means any sharp move lower in spot invites calendar spread buyers. $2.40 is the floor to watch — Haynesville break-even country. Below that, expect producer curtailments that actually bite into the supply overhang.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-17 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are currently at $2.70, buoyed by recent weather forecasts predicting warmer temperatures, which could increase air-conditioning demand. Despite this, the market remains under pressure due to high storage levels (1,911 Bcf, 4.8% above the 5-year average) and robust production near 109 Bcf/d. While near-record LNG exports (18.9 Bcf/d) offer some optimism, the domestic landscape points lower. A critical floor to watch is $2.40, as slipping below could prompt producer cutbacks and tighter supply dynamics.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 2.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.81 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 2.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.67
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.67
MA(20): $2.81
Current Price is 2.67, 9 day MA 2.67, 20 day MA 2.81
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -0.1329
Signal: -0.1306
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 39.77
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 39.77 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 100,079
Avg (20d): 117,152
Ratio: 0.85
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 22.98
%D: 15.65
Stochastic %K: 22.98, %D: 15.65. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 8.91
+DI: 19.25
-DI: 19.66
ADX: 8.91 (+DI: 19.25, -DI: 19.66). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -77.02
Williams %R: -77.02 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.12
Middle: 2.81
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.12, Middle: 2.81, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.4 | 108.7 | 106.3 | 102.43 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 111.7 | 113.9 | 112.3 | 107.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.1 | 23.2 | 23.3 | 23.1 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.0 | 29.6 | 28.6 | 29.0 |
| Residential & Commercial | 24.7 | 29.0 | 21.1 | 21.0 |
| LNG Exports | 19.0 | 18.8 | 16.8 | 14.37 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 5.77 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.9 | 7.47 |
| Total Demand | 114.22 | 116.03 | 103.0 | 100.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -2.52 | -2.13 | 9.3 | 6.97 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
56.0 HDD
-40.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
62.0 HDD
-13.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
14.0 CDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
13.0 CDD
+2.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | 12.0 | 15.0 | -3.0 |
| 04/10 | 10.0 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/11 | 11.0 | 14.0 | -3.0 |
| 04/12 | 9.0 | 14.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/13 | 6.0 | 13.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/14 | 4.0 | 13.0 | -9.0 |
| 04/15 | 4.0 | 12.0 | -8.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/17 | 5.0 | 12.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/18 | 8.0 | 11.0 | -3.0 |
| 04/19 | 12.0 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/20 | 14.0 | 10.0 | +4.0 |
| 04/21 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/22 | 6.0 | 11.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/23 | 7.0 | 10.0 | -3.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/10 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/11 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/12 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/13 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/14 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/15 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +3.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/17 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/18 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/19 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/20 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/21 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/22 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/23 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.23
Daily:
0.01 (0.01%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-0.15%)
US_10Y
4.25
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.46%)
Weekly:
-0.05 (-1.19%)
SP500
7126.06
Daily:
84.78 (1.2%)
Weekly:
239.82 (3.48%)
VIX
17.48
Daily:
-0.46 (-2.56%)
Weekly:
-1.64 (-8.58%)
GOLD
4849.4
Daily:
64.0 (1.34%)
Weekly:
107.0 (2.26%)
COPPER
6.08
Daily:
0.01 (0.25%)
Weekly:
0.11 (1.77%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-14
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,585,240
Change: +26,377
Managed Money
-114,095
Change: -28,062
-7.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-10,542
Change: -1,114
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
181,454
Change: +9,939
11.4% of OI
Other Reportables
-72,793
Change: +25,161
-4.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-14
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,094,492
Change: +56,635
Managed Money
98,368
Change: +19,668
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,996
Change: +883
14.0% of OI
Swap Dealers
-540,931
Change: -17,352
-25.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 15.321 EUR/MWh (+0.162). JKM prices remained stable to 19.198 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 3.877 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.321
+0.162Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-17
JKM Prices
19.198
+0.000Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-17
JKM-TTF Spread
3.877
25.31%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-17
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
19.9
17.8
15.7
13.6
11.5
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 15.321 |
| JUN 26 | 14.644 |
| JUL 26 | 14.660 |
| AUG 26 | 14.670 |
| SEP 26 | 14.702 |
| OCT 26 | 14.667 |
| NOV 26 | 14.590 |
| DEC 26 | 14.632 |
| JAN 27 | 14.600 |
| FEB 27 | 14.481 |
| MAR 27 | 13.924 |
| APR 27 | 12.331 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 19.198 |
| JUN 26 | 16.130 |
| JUL 26 | 16.090 |
| AUG 26 | 15.890 |
| SEP 26 | 15.485 |
| OCT 26 | 15.170 |
| NOV 26 | 15.315 |
| DEC 26 | 15.275 |
| JAN 27 | 15.065 |
| FEB 27 | 14.525 |
| MAR 27 | 13.185 |
| APR 27 | 12.160 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-18 to 2026-04-07
Latest LNG Flow
17.80
BCF/D
Daily Change
-1.60
(-8.2%)
30-Day Average
19.00
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.80
BCF/D
Data Points
21
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | 19.50 | N/A |
| 2026-03-30 | 19.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-31 | 18.90 | -0.50 |
| 2026-04-01 | 18.80 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-02 | 19.00 | +0.20 |
| 2026-04-03 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-04 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-05 | 19.30 | +0.30 |
| 2026-04-06 | 19.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-04-07 | 17.80 | -1.60 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.5
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
151
Last Updated:
2026-04-17 23:47:29
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
-0.8
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Oil falls on prospects for talks to end Iran war and revive supply Reuters
- Oil Surges as Iran Deal Delays Fuel Supply Fears Trading Economics
- Oil prices fall as hopes for US-Iran deal outweigh supply disruption concerns Reuters
- BP Plc Expects Q1 Upstream Production To Be Broadly Flat Sequentially dpa-AFX
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- Canadian Dollar's Response to Conflict-Triggered Oil-Price Jump to Remain Subdued — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Iran Conflict Boosts Performance of G-10 Carry Trades — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Settles Flat As Market Awaits Conflict Developments — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Unlikely to Return to Pre-Conflict Levels Soon, UBS Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.67
Closest Support:
$2.56
4.12% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.8
42.32% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.56
Support
0.236
$3.8
Resistance
0.382
$4.57
0.5
$5.19
0.618
$5.82
0.786
$6.7
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.26
1.618
$11.08
2.0
$13.09
2.618
$16.35
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.65
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-17 23:47:30
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.1%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | $2.65 | $2.48 | $2.82 |
| 2026-04-18 | $2.65 | $2.48 | $2.83 |
| 2026-04-19 | $2.65 | $2.48 | $2.82 |
| 2026-04-20 | $2.65 | $2.48 | $2.82 |
| 2026-04-21 | $2.65 | $2.48 | $2.82 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.10% for the next trading day (2026-04-17), reaching $2.65.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-17 and 2026-04-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~12.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market sentiment is bearish, with a technical interpretation scoring -2/5. This suggests potential downward pressure on prices. Key Fibonacci support is at 2.56, while resistance is at 3.8. Traders should be cautious of volatility as the ML forecast indicates a slight potential uptick of 0.10% in the next day, with a trading range from 2.48 to 2.82. Watch for any shifts in news sentiment and weather forecasts that could impact short-term trading strategies.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -2.52 BCFD, indicating a tighter supply situation that may warrant adjustments in production planning. With a bearish market sentiment and negative indicators for natural gas, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price declines. The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to crude oil, may also affect operational decisions and market positioning.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With moderate heating demand expected in the residential and commercial sectors, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in the near term. The current market sentiment is bearish, which may lead to lower prices, but the risk of supply disruptions remains due to geopolitical factors and the overall fundamental balance. Consider reviewing procurement strategies and potential hedging options to manage costs effectively.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently facing a bearish sentiment, with a technical score of -2/5 and a fundamental balance deficit of -2.52 BCFD. The weather outlook indicates moderate heating demand, which may influence short-term price movements. The convergence of these factors suggests a challenging environment for price stability. Analysts should monitor ML forecasts and geopolitical developments closely to assess potential shifts in market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for personalized recommendations.