HH at $2.70 is bouncing off recent lows but structurally pinned by the same forces that have been in place for weeks: storage at 1,911 Bcf (4.8% above 5yr avg), injection season running hot with back-to-back beats (50 Bcf and 59 Bcf the past two EIA reports vs. ~46 Bcf consensus), production near 109 Bcf/d and rising, and warm weather forecast through early May keeping heating demand near zero. The paradox hasn't moved — LNG exports are running 18.9 Bcf/d near-record and the HH–TTF arb at ~$12.30 is screaming, but terminal capacity is the hard ceiling on how many molecules can leave. Spot gas is a domestic story, not a global one, and domestically everything points lower. The one thing keeping traders from getting aggressively short: the December 2026 contract at $4.70 and Jan 2027 at $5.10 are still pricing serious winter risk, which means any sharp move lower in spot invites calendar spread buyers. $2.40 is the floor to watch — Haynesville break-even country. Below that, expect producer curtailments that actually bite into the supply overhang. Natty is trying to break 2.715 and 2.76 to retake 3.00
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-22 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are showing resilience, bouncing off recent lows around $2.70, supported by strong LNG exports near record levels and a tight domestic supply picture. Current storage sits at 1,911 Bcf, 4.8% above the five-year average, while production continues to rise. Despite warm weather stifling heating demand, the December 2026 contract suggests some winter risk at $4.70. Watch for a key floor at $2.40, as any dip below could trigger producer curtailments, impacting the supply landscape.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 2.2 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 1.81 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 2.52 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.72
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.66
MA(20): $2.77
Current Price is 2.72, 9 day MA 2.66, 20 day MA 2.77
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1074
Signal: -0.1232
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 43.19
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 43.19 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 1,530
Avg (20d): 113,129
Ratio: 0.01
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 49.7
%D: 40.23
Stochastic %K: 49.7, %D: 40.23. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 7.57
+DI: 20.29
-DI: 19.22
ADX: 7.57 (+DI: 20.29, -DI: 19.22). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -50.3
Williams %R: -50.3 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.04
Middle: 2.77
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.04, Middle: 2.77, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 107.4 | 108.7 | 106.3 | 102.43 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 5.23 |
| Total Supply | 111.7 | 113.9 | 112.3 | 107.73 |
| Industrial Demand | 21.1 | 23.2 | 23.3 | 23.1 |
| Electric Power Demand | 34.0 | 29.6 | 28.6 | 29.0 |
| Residential & Commercial | 24.7 | 29.0 | 21.1 | 21.0 |
| LNG Exports | 19.0 | 18.8 | 16.8 | 14.37 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 5.77 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.9 | 7.47 |
| Total Demand | 114.22 | 116.03 | 103.0 | 100.77 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -2.52 | -2.13 | 9.3 | 6.97 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions (BELOW normal heating demand)
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
55.0 HDD
-25.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
52.0 HDD
-16.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
18.0 CDD
+10.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
19.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/14 | 4.0 | 13.0 | -9.0 |
| 04/15 | 4.0 | 12.0 | -8.0 |
| 04/16 | 4.0 | 11.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/17 | 5.0 | 12.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/18 | 9.0 | 11.0 | -2.0 |
| 04/19 | 14.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/20 | 15.0 | 10.0 | +5.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/22 | 7.0 | 11.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/23 | 5.0 | 10.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/24 | 6.0 | 10.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/25 | 9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/26 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/27 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/28 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/14 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/15 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/16 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/17 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/18 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/19 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/20 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/22 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/23 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/24 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/25 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/26 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/27 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/28 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.68
Daily:
0.27 (0.28%)
Weekly:
0.46 (0.47%)
US_10Y
4.29
Daily:
0.0 (0.05%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.35%)
SP500
7137.9
Daily:
73.89 (1.05%)
Weekly:
96.62 (1.37%)
VIX
18.92
Daily:
-0.58 (-2.97%)
Weekly:
0.98 (5.46%)
GOLD
4719.0
Daily:
20.6 (0.44%)
Weekly:
-66.4 (-1.39%)
COPPER
6.03
Daily:
0.03 (0.47%)
Weekly:
-0.04 (-0.6%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-14
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,585,240
Change: +26,377
Managed Money
-114,095
Change: -28,062
-7.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-10,542
Change: -1,114
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
181,454
Change: +9,939
11.4% of OI
Other Reportables
-72,793
Change: +25,161
-4.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-14
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,094,492
Change: +56,635
Managed Money
98,368
Change: +19,668
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,996
Change: +883
14.0% of OI
Swap Dealers
-540,931
Change: -17,352
-25.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 15.153 EUR/MWh (+0.191). JKM prices increased to 15.810 USD/MMBtu (+0.575). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.657 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.153
+0.191Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-22
JKM Prices
15.810
+0.575Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-04-22
JKM-TTF Spread
0.657
4.34%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-22
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
16.3
15.1
14.0
12.8
11.7
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 15.153 |
| JUN 26 | 14.448 |
| JUL 26 | 14.452 |
| AUG 26 | 14.458 |
| SEP 26 | 14.471 |
| OCT 26 | 14.409 |
| NOV 26 | 14.315 |
| DEC 26 | 14.315 |
| JAN 27 | 14.273 |
| FEB 27 | 14.147 |
| MAR 27 | 13.663 |
| APR 27 | 12.132 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 15.810 |
| JUL 26 | 15.875 |
| AUG 26 | 15.755 |
| SEP 26 | 15.460 |
| OCT 26 | 15.060 |
| NOV 26 | 14.995 |
| DEC 26 | 15.100 |
| JAN 27 | 14.920 |
| FEB 27 | 14.505 |
| MAR 27 | 13.050 |
| APR 27 | 12.100 |
| MAY 27 | 12.050 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-23 to 2026-04-07
Latest LNG Flow
17.80
BCF/D
Daily Change
-1.60
(-8.2%)
30-Day Average
19.06
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.80
BCF/D
Data Points
16
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | 19.50 | N/A |
| 2026-03-30 | 19.40 | -0.10 |
| 2026-03-31 | 18.90 | -0.50 |
| 2026-04-01 | 18.80 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-02 | 19.00 | +0.20 |
| 2026-04-03 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-04 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-05 | 19.30 | +0.30 |
| 2026-04-06 | 19.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-04-07 | 17.80 | -1.60 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
116
Last Updated:
2026-04-22 23:47:42
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
NATURAL_GAS
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- U.K. Inflation Data Likely to Show Effects of Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (1 articles)
- U.S. Natural Gas Futures Gain on More Supportive Weather — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.72
Closest Support:
$2.56
5.88% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.8
39.71% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.56
Support
0.236
$3.8
Resistance
0.382
$4.57
0.5
$5.19
0.618
$5.82
0.786
$6.7
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.26
1.618
$11.08
2.0
$13.09
2.618
$16.35
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.72
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-22 23:47:42
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.17%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | $2.72 | $2.57 | $2.87 |
| 2026-04-24 | $2.72 | $2.57 | $2.87 |
| 2026-04-25 | $2.72 | $2.56 | $2.87 |
| 2026-04-26 | $2.72 | $2.56 | $2.87 |
| 2026-04-27 | $2.71 | $2.56 | $2.86 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.17% for the next trading day (2026-04-23), reaching $2.72.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-23 and 2026-04-27.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish outlook with a technical score of -2/5. The Fibonacci support level is at 2.56, while resistance is identified at 3.8. Traders should be cautious of potential price movements within the forecasted range of 2.57 to 2.87, with a predicted decrease of 0.17%. The divergence between the bearish technical indicators and the overall market sentiment (+0.675) could present short-term trading opportunities, but volatility may increase due to conflicting signals.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance shows a deficit of -2.52 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply situation. The positive sentiment surrounding natural gas (+0.700) and headlines about increasing LNG exports may support pricing in the near term. Producers should consider adjusting production planning to align with anticipated demand, especially given the moderate heating demand expected in the Northeast and Midwest regions. Hedging strategies may also need to be revisited in light of potential price fluctuations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the current moderately bearish technical outlook and the fundamental supply deficit. The forecasted moderate heating demand indicates a stable supply for heating needs, but the overall market sentiment suggests that prices may not decline significantly. It may be prudent for consumers to evaluate procurement strategies and consider hedging options to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market currently presents a mixed picture. The technical indicators suggest a cautious approach, while news sentiment remains optimistic, particularly for natural gas. The fundamental supply deficit of -2.52 BCFD and the weather outlook favoring heating demand contribute to a complex market environment. Analysts should closely monitor these driving factors as they could lead to significant shifts in market dynamics, particularly if the price forecast aligns with emerging trends.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.