HH at $2.70 is bouncing off recent lows but structurally pinned by the same forces that have been in place for weeks: storage at 1,911 Bcf (4.8% above 5yr avg), injection season running hot with back-to-back beats (50 Bcf and 59 Bcf the past two EIA reports vs. ~46 Bcf consensus), production near 109 Bcf/d and rising, and warm weather forecast through early May keeping heating demand near zero. The paradox hasn't moved — LNG exports are running 18.9 Bcf/d near-record and the HH–TTF arb at ~$12.30 is screaming, but terminal capacity is the hard ceiling on how many molecules can leave. Spot gas is a domestic story, not a global one, and domestically everything points lower. The one thing keeping traders from getting aggressively short: the December 2026 contract at $4.70 and Jan 2027 at $5.10 are still pricing serious winter risk, which means any sharp move lower in spot invites calendar spread buyers. $2.40 is the floor to watch — Haynesville break-even country. Below that, expect producer curtailments that actually bite into the supply overhang. Natty is trying to break 2.715 and 2.76 to retake 3.00. First 100+ BCF injection of the year - Natty bottomed out around 2.60 - and “should” head back up to 2.715 as the key anchor as we exit the week.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-23 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are currently hovering around $2.70, facing pressure from robust storage levels at 1,911 Bcf, which is 4.8% above the five-year average. Recent EIA reports have shown injection rates exceeding expectations, and production is on the rise at nearly 109 Bcf/d. Despite high LNG exports of 18.9 Bcf/d, domestic demand remains tepid due to warm weather, keeping prices pinned. A floor at $2.40 is critical, as breaching it may trigger producer cutbacks. Watch for resistance around $2.715 and $2.76 as we seek a rebound.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 9.09 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 5.97 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.72
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.66
MA(20): $2.76
Current Price is 2.72, 9 day MA 2.66, 20 day MA 2.76
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0989
Signal: -0.1183
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.94
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.94 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,359
Avg (20d): 115,575
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 48.62
%D: 45.98
Stochastic %K: 48.62, %D: 45.98. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 7.63
+DI: 20.76
-DI: 18.53
ADX: 7.63 (+DI: 20.76, -DI: 18.53). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -51.38
Williams %R: -51.38 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 3.02
Middle: 2.76
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 3.02, Middle: 2.76, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.9 | 107.4 | 106.3 | 102.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.2 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 4.73 |
| Total Supply | 111.1 | 111.7 | 111.3 | 106.93 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 21.1 | 22.6 | 22.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 27.8 | 34.0 | 29.5 | 29.57 |
| Residential & Commercial | 21.0 | 24.7 | 14.1 | 15.23 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 19.0 | 16.1 | 13.83 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.17 |
| Total Demand | 105.13 | 114.22 | 95.7 | 94.43 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 5.97 | -2.52 | 15.6 | 12.5 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
63.0 HDD
-14.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
53.0 HDD
-13.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
14.0 CDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
21.0 CDD
+8.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/15 | 4.0 | 12.0 | -8.0 |
| 04/16 | 4.0 | 11.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/17 | 5.0 | 12.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/18 | 9.0 | 11.0 | -2.0 |
| 04/19 | 14.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/20 | 15.0 | 10.0 | +5.0 |
| 04/21 | 12.0 | 10.0 | +2.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/23 | 5.0 | 10.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/24 | 6.0 | 10.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/25 | 9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/26 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/27 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/28 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/29 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/15 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/16 | 4.0 | 1.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/17 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/18 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/19 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/20 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 04/21 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/23 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/24 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/25 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/26 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/27 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/28 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/29 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.9
Daily:
0.31 (0.31%)
Weekly:
0.8 (0.82%)
US_10Y
4.32
Daily:
0.03 (0.68%)
Weekly:
0.08 (1.81%)
SP500
7108.4
Daily:
-29.5 (-0.41%)
Weekly:
-17.66 (-0.25%)
VIX
19.31
Daily:
0.39 (2.06%)
Weekly:
1.83 (10.47%)
GOLD
4690.2
Daily:
-42.3 (-0.89%)
Weekly:
-167.4 (-3.45%)
COPPER
6.0
Daily:
-0.12 (-1.94%)
Weekly:
-0.1 (-1.68%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-14
Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,585,240
Change: +26,377
Managed Money
-114,095
Change: -28,062
-7.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-10,542
Change: -1,114
-0.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
181,454
Change: +9,939
11.4% of OI
Other Reportables
-72,793
Change: +25,161
-4.6% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish and strengthening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-14
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,094,492
Change: +56,635
Managed Money
98,368
Change: +19,668
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,996
Change: +883
14.0% of OI
Swap Dealers
-540,931
Change: -17,352
-25.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 15.306 EUR/MWh (+0.153). JKM prices increased to 16.125 USD/MMBtu (+0.315). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.819 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.306
+0.153Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-23
JKM Prices
16.125
+0.315Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-04-23
JKM-TTF Spread
0.819
5.35%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-23
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
16.7
15.5
14.3
13.2
12.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 15.306 |
| JUN 26 | 14.957 |
| JUL 26 | 14.986 |
| AUG 26 | 15.000 |
| SEP 26 | 15.024 |
| OCT 26 | 14.962 |
| NOV 26 | 14.834 |
| DEC 26 | 14.845 |
| JAN 27 | 14.813 |
| FEB 27 | 14.696 |
| MAR 27 | 14.198 |
| APR 27 | 12.582 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.125 |
| JUL 26 | 16.300 |
| AUG 26 | 16.165 |
| SEP 26 | 15.955 |
| OCT 26 | 15.560 |
| NOV 26 | 15.460 |
| DEC 26 | 15.570 |
| JAN 27 | 15.380 |
| FEB 27 | 14.950 |
| MAR 27 | 13.440 |
| APR 27 | 12.480 |
| MAY 27 | 12.365 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-24 to 2026-04-23
Latest LNG Flow
18.80
BCF/D
Daily Change
+1.00
(+5.6%)
30-Day Average
19.05
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.80
BCF/D
Data Points
16
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | 19.40 | N/A |
| 2026-03-31 | 18.90 | -0.50 |
| 2026-04-01 | 18.80 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-02 | 19.00 | +0.20 |
| 2026-04-03 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-04 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-05 | 19.30 | +0.30 |
| 2026-04-06 | 19.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-04-07 | 17.80 | -1.60 |
| 2026-04-23 | 18.80 | +1.00 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.625
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
143
Last Updated:
2026-04-23 23:47:54
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
Top News Topics
Supply (6 articles)
- US natgas holds near one-week high on lower output, near-record LNG flows Reuters
- US natgas hits one-week high as output drops and LNG exports surge Reuters
- Crude Oil Prices Surge as Closure of Hormuz Threatens Supply Shortages Barchart
- Middle East Oil Supply to Take Months to Recover — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Inventory Rebuild to Support Prices for Years — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Hassett: Supply Constraints to Ease, Oil Seen Lower in Long Run — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- U.K. Inflation Data Likely to Show Effects of Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.72
Closest Support:
$2.56
5.88% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$3.8
39.71% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.56
Support
0.236
$3.8
Resistance
0.382
$4.57
0.5
$5.19
0.618
$5.82
0.786
$6.7
1.0
$7.83
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$9.26
1.618
$11.08
2.0
$13.09
2.618
$16.35
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.61
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-23 23:47:54
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.4%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | $2.62 | $2.47 | $2.78 |
| 2026-04-25 | $2.6 | $2.45 | $2.76 |
| 2026-04-26 | $2.62 | $2.47 | $2.77 |
| 2026-04-27 | $2.61 | $2.46 | $2.77 |
| 2026-04-28 | $2.62 | $2.47 | $2.77 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.40% for the next trading day (2026-04-24), reaching $2.62.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-24 and 2026-04-28.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market sentiment is bullish, despite a moderately bearish technical score of -2/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support level at 2.56 and resistance at 3.8. The ML price forecast predicts a slight increase of 0.40% with a range of 2.47 to 2.78. This indicates potential short-term trading opportunities, particularly if prices approach support levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a fundamental balance of 5.97 BCFD and a positive change of +8.49, producers should consider adjusting production levels to align with the anticipated heating demand. The moderate bearish technical indicators suggest a cautious approach to hedging strategies. Positive news sentiment, particularly around natural gas, indicates a favorable environment for sales, especially with ongoing moderate heating demand.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations due to the moderate heating demand and low cooling demand expected in the coming weeks. The technical outlook suggests that prices may face downward pressure, which could provide advantageous procurement opportunities. However, the fundamental balance indicates sufficient supply, reducing reliability risks for consumers in the near term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently experiencing mixed signals. The moderately bearish technical indicators contrast with a bullish overall market sentiment. Key driving factors include a strong fundamental balance and a positive weather outlook impacting heating demand. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments and their potential impact on supply, particularly in crude oil, as this could shift market dynamics significantly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.