American natural gas is currently the most schizophrenic commodity on the planet, and it deserves a moment of recognition for that achievement. On one hand: U.S. LNG export terminals are running at a record-pace 18.9 Bcf/d in April, printing money hand over fist on an ~$11.50/MMBtu spread to TTF and ~$13.50/MMBtu to JKM — net arbitrage after liquefaction and shipping costs of roughly $8–$9/MMBtu to Europe. U.S. exporters are, without exaggeration, the beneficiaries of the greatest involuntary energy redistribution scheme in history. On the other hand: Henry Hub is sitting at $2.57/MMBtu, a 26-month low, down 11.8% over four weeks, because the domestic market has 2,063 Bcf of gas in storage — 7.1% above the five-year average — and just posted a 103 Bcf injection for the week ended April 17 that was a five-year record for that calendar week and beat consensus by 9 Bcf. The domestic market is drowning in supply. The international market is starving. The molecule is the same. The price is not. This is what happens when you build a world-class LNG export complex but forget to build enough of it — the arb is enormous, terminal utilization is maxed out, and the excess gas that can't squeeze through the liquefaction bottleneck just piles up in storage and drives HH toward whatever the floor is. The floor, for now, appears to be somewhere around $2.40–$2.50 — October 2024 support. The week ahead for gas is quieter than crude, but the structural question is the same one it will be all summer: does record LNG demand (18.9 Bcf/d) keep injections from getting so egregious that HH loses its footing below $2.40? Weather is the swing variable — near-normal temperatures through early May mean power burn stays subdued, injections stay fat, and the storage surplus keeps widening. The only legitimate bull catalyst before summer heat materializes is a collapse in LNG feedgas flows — which would require either a peace deal that crashes international spreads, or a domestic terminal outage. Neither is the base case. For producers: do not add fixed-price hedges at $2.57. For consumers: do not wait. This is the window.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-25 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently experiencing a dramatic dissonance, with prices plunging to an 18-month low of $2.57/MMBtu due to a storage surplus of 2,063 Bcf—7.1% above the five-year average. Despite record LNG exports at 18.9 Bcf/d, the domestic market remains oversaturated, causing a price disconnect. Weather conditions and mild temperatures could exacerbate this trend, leading to increased storage injections. Traders should watch for weather shifts or LNG feedgas fluctuations, as these will shape near-term market dynamics.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 9.09 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 5.97 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$2.52
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.64
MA(20): $2.73
Current Price is 2.52, 9 day MA 2.64, 20 day MA 2.73
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1133
Signal: -0.1187
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 33.87
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 33.87 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 79,279
Avg (20d): 120,316
Ratio: 0.66
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 7.12
%D: 24.14
Stochastic %K: 7.12, %D: 24.14. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 8.45
+DI: 17.98
-DI: 25.08
ADX: 8.45 (+DI: 17.98, -DI: 25.08). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -92.88
Williams %R: -92.88 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 2.99
Middle: 2.73
Lower: 2.47
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 2.99, Middle: 2.73, Lower: 2.47
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.9 | 107.4 | 106.3 | 102.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.2 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 4.73 |
| Total Supply | 111.1 | 111.7 | 111.3 | 106.93 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 21.1 | 22.6 | 22.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 27.8 | 34.0 | 29.5 | 29.57 |
| Residential & Commercial | 21.0 | 24.7 | 14.1 | 15.23 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 19.0 | 16.1 | 13.83 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.17 |
| Total Demand | 105.13 | 114.22 | 95.7 | 94.43 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 5.97 | -2.52 | 15.6 | 12.5 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
69.0 HDD
-6.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
62.0 HDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
8.0 CDD
-3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
19.0 CDD
+5.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/17 | 5.0 | 12.0 | -7.0 |
| 04/18 | 9.0 | 11.0 | -2.0 |
| 04/19 | 14.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/20 | 15.0 | 10.0 | +5.0 |
| 04/21 | 12.0 | 10.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/22 | 9.0 | 11.0 | -2.0 |
| 04/23 | 5.0 | 10.0 | -5.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/25 | 9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/26 | 10.0 | 9.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/27 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/28 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/29 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/30 | 9.0 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/01 | 10.0 | 8.0 | +2.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/17 | 3.0 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/18 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/19 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/20 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 04/21 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 04/22 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/23 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/25 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/26 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/27 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/28 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/29 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/30 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/01 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.51
Daily:
-0.29 (-0.29%)
Weekly:
0.46 (0.47%)
US_10Y
4.31
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.3%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.41%)
SP500
7165.08
Daily:
56.68 (0.8%)
Weekly:
55.94 (0.79%)
VIX
18.71
Daily:
-0.6 (-3.11%)
Weekly:
-0.16 (-0.85%)
GOLD
4722.3
Daily:
17.2 (0.37%)
Weekly:
-84.3 (-1.75%)
COPPER
6.02
Daily:
-0.05 (-0.86%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.21%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-21
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,576,663
Change: -8,577
Managed Money
-100,574
Change: +13,521
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-23,743
Change: -13,201
-1.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
174,059
Change: -7,395
11.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-67,741
Change: +5,052
-4.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-21
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,984,747
Change: -109,745
Managed Money
99,887
Change: +1,519
5.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
314,305
Change: +20,309
15.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-541,016
Change: -85
-27.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 15.407 EUR/MWh (+0.025). JKM prices increased to 16.550 USD/MMBtu (+0.160). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.143 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.407
+0.025Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-25
JKM Prices
16.550
+0.160Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-04-25
JKM-TTF Spread
1.143
7.42%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-25
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
17.4
16.1
14.8
13.6
12.3
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 15.407 |
| JUN 26 | 15.395 |
| JUL 26 | 15.433 |
| AUG 26 | 15.454 |
| SEP 26 | 15.498 |
| OCT 26 | 15.457 |
| NOV 26 | 15.376 |
| DEC 26 | 15.415 |
| JAN 27 | 15.396 |
| FEB 27 | 15.292 |
| MAR 27 | 14.796 |
| APR 27 | 13.013 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.550 |
| JUL 26 | 16.940 |
| AUG 26 | 16.780 |
| SEP 26 | 16.465 |
| OCT 26 | 16.050 |
| NOV 26 | 15.980 |
| DEC 26 | 16.095 |
| JAN 27 | 15.915 |
| FEB 27 | 15.465 |
| MAR 27 | 13.835 |
| APR 27 | 12.810 |
| MAY 27 | 12.710 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-26 to 2026-04-24
Latest LNG Flow
18.70
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.10
(-0.5%)
30-Day Average
19.01
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.80
BCF/D
Data Points
16
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | 18.80 | N/A |
| 2026-04-02 | 19.00 | +0.20 |
| 2026-04-03 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-04 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-05 | 19.30 | +0.30 |
| 2026-04-06 | 19.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-04-07 | 17.80 | -1.60 |
| 2026-04-23 | 18.80 | +1.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | 18.80 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | 18.70 | -0.10 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.25
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
100
Last Updated:
2026-04-25 23:47:28
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
HEATING_OIL
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.52
Closest Support:
$2.49
1.19% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.95
17.06% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.49
Support
0.236
$2.95
Resistance
0.382
$3.23
0.5
$3.46
0.618
$3.69
0.786
$4.01
1.0
$4.43
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$4.95
1.618
$5.62
2.0
$6.36
2.618
$7.55
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.52
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-25 23:47:28
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.46%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | $2.51 | $2.36 | $2.66 |
| 2026-04-26 | $2.51 | $2.36 | $2.66 |
| 2026-04-27 | $2.52 | $2.37 | $2.67 |
| 2026-04-28 | $2.52 | $2.37 | $2.67 |
| 2026-04-29 | $2.53 | $2.38 | $2.68 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.46% for the next trading day (2026-04-25), reaching $2.51.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-25 and 2026-04-29.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a neutral technical outlook with a score of -1/5. The Fibonacci support level is set at 2.49, while resistance is noted at 2.95. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility as the ML price forecast suggests a slight decline of 0.46%, with a range between 2.36 and 2.66. This presents a short-term opportunity for strategic entry or exit points, particularly if prices approach the support level.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance indicates a supply level of 5.97 BCFD, with a notable increase of +8.49. Producers should consider adjusting production plans accordingly to capitalize on this uptick. The current market sentiment is overall bullish, particularly for crude oil, which may influence pricing strategies. However, the negative sentiment surrounding supply issues, as highlighted in recent news, suggests that hedging strategies could be prudent to mitigate potential market fluctuations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With the weather outlook indicating moderate heating demand and low cooling demand, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations during this heating season. The overall market sentiment may suggest stable supply; however, the risk related to crude oil supply disruptions could impact costs. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that account for potential volatility, especially if prices approach the Fibonacci support level of 2.49.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is currently characterized by a neutral technical stance, with a balance of supply and demand reflected in the fundamental balance of 5.97 BCFD. The bullish sentiment around crude oil, juxtaposed with bearish indicators in natural gas, suggests a complex market landscape. Analysts should monitor the implications of weather patterns and geopolitical events on supply dynamics, as these are likely to be the strongest driving factors influencing market outlooks.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.