American natural gas is currently the most schizophrenic commodity on the planet, and it deserves a moment of recognition for that achievement. On one hand: U.S. LNG export terminals are running at a record-pace 18.9 Bcf/d in April, printing money hand over fist on an ~$11.50/MMBtu spread to TTF and ~$13.50/MMBtu to JKM — net arbitrage after liquefaction and shipping costs of roughly $8–$9/MMBtu to Europe. U.S. exporters are, without exaggeration, the beneficiaries of the greatest involuntary energy redistribution scheme in history. On the other hand: Henry Hub is sitting at $2.57/MMBtu, a 26-month low, down 11.8% over four weeks, because the domestic market has 2,063 Bcf of gas in storage — 7.1% above the five-year average — and just posted a 103 Bcf injection for the week ended April 17 that was a five-year record for that calendar week and beat consensus by 9 Bcf. The domestic market is drowning in supply. The international market is starving. The molecule is the same. The price is not. This is what happens when you build a world-class LNG export complex but forget to build enough of it — the arb is enormous, terminal utilization is maxed out, and the excess gas that can't squeeze through the liquefaction bottleneck just piles up in storage and drives HH toward whatever the floor is. The floor, for now, appears to be somewhere around $2.40–$2.50 — October 2024 support. The week ahead for gas is quieter than crude, but the structural question is the same one it will be all summer: does record LNG demand (18.9 Bcf/d) keep injections from getting so egregious that HH loses its footing below $2.40? Weather is the swing variable — near-normal temperatures through early May mean power burn stays subdued, injections stay fat, and the storage surplus keeps widening. The only legitimate bull catalyst before summer heat materializes is a collapse in LNG feedgas flows — which would require either a peace deal that crashes international spreads, or a domestic terminal outage. Neither is the base case. For producers: do not add fixed-price hedges at $2.57. For consumers: do not wait. This is the window.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-27 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently caught in a dual reality. While U.S. LNG exports hit a record 18.9 Bcf/d, benefiting from high international prices, domestic prices languish at $2.57/MMBtu due to surplus storage levels (2,063 Bcf, 7.1% above average). Recent colder weather forecasts have slightly lifted prices, but with injections breaking records, Henry Hub faces pressure near $2.40. Watch for weather impacts and LNG feedgas flows—these will be key in determining the market's direction in the coming weeks.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 9.09 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 5.97 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$2.72
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.65
MA(20): $2.71
Current Price is 2.72, 9 day MA 2.65, 20 day MA 2.71
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1012
Signal: -0.1152
Days since crossover: 6
MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.31
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.31 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,341
Avg (20d): 112,398
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 63.32
%D: 28.89
Stochastic %K: 63.32, %D: 28.89. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 7.94
+DI: 23.06
-DI: 22.43
ADX: 7.94 (+DI: 23.06, -DI: 22.43). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -36.68
Williams %R: -36.68 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 2.91
Middle: 2.71
Lower: 2.51
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 2.91, Middle: 2.71, Lower: 2.51
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.9 | 107.4 | 106.3 | 102.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.2 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 4.73 |
| Total Supply | 111.1 | 111.7 | 111.3 | 106.93 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 21.1 | 22.6 | 22.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 27.8 | 34.0 | 29.5 | 29.57 |
| Residential & Commercial | 21.0 | 24.7 | 14.1 | 15.23 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 19.0 | 16.1 | 13.83 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.17 |
| Total Demand | 105.13 | 114.22 | 95.7 | 94.43 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 5.97 | -2.52 | 15.6 | 12.5 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
71.0 HDD
-1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
66.0 HDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
7.0 CDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
14.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/19 | 14.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| 04/20 | 15.0 | 10.0 | +5.0 |
| 04/21 | 12.0 | 10.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/22 | 9.0 | 11.0 | -2.0 |
| 04/23 | 5.0 | 10.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/24 | 6.0 | 10.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/25 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/27 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/28 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/29 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/30 | 10.0 | 8.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/01 | 11.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/02 | 11.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/03 | 9.0 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/19 | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/20 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 04/21 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 04/22 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/23 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/24 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/25 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/27 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/28 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/29 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/30 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/01 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/03 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.49
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.02%)
Weekly:
0.08 (0.08%)
US_10Y
4.34
Daily:
0.03 (0.6%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.03%)
SP500
7173.91
Daily:
8.83 (0.12%)
Weekly:
109.9 (1.56%)
VIX
18.02
Daily:
-0.69 (-3.69%)
Weekly:
-1.48 (-7.59%)
GOLD
4685.9
Daily:
-36.4 (-0.77%)
Weekly:
-12.5 (-0.27%)
COPPER
6.08
Daily:
0.06 (0.92%)
Weekly:
0.08 (1.29%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-21
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,576,663
Change: -8,577
Managed Money
-100,574
Change: +13,521
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-23,743
Change: -13,201
-1.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
174,059
Change: -7,395
11.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-67,741
Change: +5,052
-4.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-21
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,984,747
Change: -109,745
Managed Money
99,887
Change: +1,519
5.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
314,305
Change: +20,309
15.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-541,016
Change: -85
-27.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 15.407 EUR/MWh (+0.025). JKM prices increased to 16.550 USD/MMBtu (+0.160). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.143 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.407
+0.025Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-27
JKM Prices
16.550
+0.160Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-04-27
JKM-TTF Spread
1.143
7.42%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-27
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
17.4
16.1
14.8
13.6
12.3
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 15.407 |
| JUN 26 | 15.395 |
| JUL 26 | 15.433 |
| AUG 26 | 15.454 |
| SEP 26 | 15.498 |
| OCT 26 | 15.457 |
| NOV 26 | 15.376 |
| DEC 26 | 15.415 |
| JAN 27 | 15.396 |
| FEB 27 | 15.292 |
| MAR 27 | 14.796 |
| APR 27 | 13.013 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.550 |
| JUL 26 | 16.940 |
| AUG 26 | 16.780 |
| SEP 26 | 16.465 |
| OCT 26 | 16.050 |
| NOV 26 | 15.980 |
| DEC 26 | 16.095 |
| JAN 27 | 15.915 |
| FEB 27 | 15.465 |
| MAR 27 | 13.835 |
| APR 27 | 12.810 |
| MAY 27 | 12.710 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-28 to 2026-04-26
Latest LNG Flow
18.60
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.00
(+0.0%)
30-Day Average
18.94
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.50
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.80
BCF/D
Data Points
16
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | 19.00 | N/A |
| 2026-04-04 | 19.00 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-05 | 19.30 | +0.30 |
| 2026-04-06 | 19.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-04-07 | 17.80 | -1.60 |
| 2026-04-23 | 18.80 | +1.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | 18.80 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | 18.70 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-25 | 18.60 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-26 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
-0.1
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
69
Last Updated:
2026-04-27 23:47:46
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.3
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
HEATING_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.72
Closest Support:
$2.49
8.46% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.95
8.46% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.49
Support
0.236
$2.95
Resistance
0.382
$3.23
0.5
$3.46
0.618
$3.69
0.786
$4.01
1.0
$4.43
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$4.95
1.618
$5.62
2.0
$6.36
2.618
$7.55
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.55
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-27 23:47:47
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.22%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | $2.54 | $2.39 | $2.7 |
| 2026-04-29 | $2.56 | $2.41 | $2.71 |
| 2026-04-30 | $2.56 | $2.41 | $2.71 |
| 2026-05-01 | $2.57 | $2.42 | $2.72 |
| 2026-05-02 | $2.56 | $2.41 | $2.72 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.22% for the next trading day (2026-04-28), reaching $2.54.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-28 and 2026-05-02.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions suggest a neutral sentiment with a fundamental balance of 5.97 BCFD. Traders should pay attention to the Fibonacci support level at 2.49 and resistance at 2.95. The ML price forecast indicates a potential decline of 0.22%, suggesting short-term volatility risks. Given the moderate heating demand and low cooling demand, opportunities may arise for short positions if prices approach resistance levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a neutral market sentiment and a fundamental balance indicating a slight increase, producers should consider adjusting production levels in response to the moderate heating demand. The hedging strategies may be necessary to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines as indicated by the ML price forecast. Monitoring the Fibonacci levels will be crucial for planning production schedules and financial strategies.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations, as the market sentiment remains neutral. The moderate heating demand suggests that supply reliability may be stable, but the risks associated with price volatility should not be overlooked. The fundamental balance indicates a slight increase in supply, which may help in securing favorable procurement terms. Considerations for hedging against unforeseen price spikes may be prudent in the current environment.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The overall market picture is characterized by a neutral sentiment, with the fundamental balance showing a slight increase. The heating demand is dominating across regions, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, while cooling demand remains low. Analysts should focus on the implications of the ML price forecast predicting a 0.22% decline, which could shift the market outlook. The convergence of technical indicators suggests that traders may face challenges in the near term, with Fibonacci levels providing critical reference points for future price movements.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.