American natural gas is currently the most schizophrenic commodity on the planet, and it deserves a moment of recognition for that achievement. On one hand: U.S. LNG export terminals are running at a record-pace 18.9 Bcf/d in April, printing money hand over fist on an ~$11.50/MMBtu spread to TTF and ~$13.50/MMBtu to JKM — net arbitrage after liquefaction and shipping costs of roughly $8–$9/MMBtu to Europe. U.S. exporters are, without exaggeration, the beneficiaries of the greatest involuntary energy redistribution scheme in history. On the other hand: Henry Hub is sitting at $2.57/MMBtu, a 26-month low, down 11.8% over four weeks, because the domestic market has 2,063 Bcf of gas in storage — 7.1% above the five-year average — and just posted a 103 Bcf injection for the week ended April 17 that was a five-year record for that calendar week and beat consensus by 9 Bcf. The domestic market is drowning in supply. The international market is starving. The molecule is the same. The price is not. This is what happens when you build a world-class LNG export complex but forget to build enough of it — the arb is enormous, terminal utilization is maxed out, and the excess gas that can't squeeze through the liquefaction bottleneck just piles up in storage and drives HH toward whatever the floor is. The floor, for now, appears to be somewhere around $2.40–$2.50 — October 2024 support. The week ahead for gas is quieter than crude, but the structural question is the same one it will be all summer: does record LNG demand (18.9 Bcf/d) keep injections from getting so egregious that HH loses its footing below $2.40? Weather is the swing variable — near-normal temperatures through early May mean power burn stays subdued, injections stay fat, and the storage surplus keeps widening. The only legitimate bull catalyst before summer heat materializes is a collapse in LNG feedgas flows — which would require either a peace deal that crashes international spreads, or a domestic terminal outage. Neither is the base case. This week started the trek up to $3 - with the first stop being 2.715. Nat Gas is setting into a nice range of 2.66 to 2.715 - I am looking at a potential break to the upside - but natty will need help from weather (which hasn’t come yet)
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-29 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is currently in a state of duality. While U.S. LNG exports hit a record 18.9 Bcf/d, capitalizing on lucrative international prices, domestic prices languish at $2.57/MMBtu, a 26-month low, due to abundant storage levels—2,063 Bcf, 7.1% above the five-year average. Weather patterns and a stable market are crucial as near-normal temperatures may keep demand subdued. Watch for potential upside as summer approaches, but the market remains cautious with a support floor around $2.40–$2.50/MMBtu.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.6 BCFD | Total demand decreased by 9.09 BCFD | Market is oversupplied by 5.97 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.64
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.63
MA(20): $2.67
Current Price is 2.64, 9 day MA 2.63, 20 day MA 2.67
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.1048
Signal: -0.1145
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.77
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.77 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,183
Avg (20d): 106,754
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 55.71
%D: 32.87
Stochastic %K: 55.71, %D: 32.87. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 8.57
+DI: 21.01
-DI: 22.19
ADX: 8.57 (+DI: 21.01, -DI: 22.19). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -44.29
Williams %R: -44.29 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 2.86
Middle: 2.67
Lower: 2.49
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 2.86, Middle: 2.67, Lower: 2.49
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.9 | 107.4 | 106.3 | 102.13 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.2 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 4.73 |
| Total Supply | 111.1 | 111.7 | 111.3 | 106.93 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 21.1 | 22.6 | 22.57 |
| Electric Power Demand | 27.8 | 34.0 | 29.5 | 29.57 |
| Residential & Commercial | 21.0 | 24.7 | 14.1 | 15.23 |
| LNG Exports | 18.8 | 19.0 | 16.1 | 13.83 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 5.93 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.7 | 7.17 |
| Total Demand | 105.13 | 114.22 | 95.7 | 94.43 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | 5.97 | -2.52 | 15.6 | 12.5 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
62.0 HDD
-7.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
73.0 HDD
+17.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
10.0 CDD
-3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
9.0 CDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/21 | 12.0 | 10.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/22 | 9.0 | 11.0 | -2.0 |
| 04/23 | 5.0 | 10.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/24 | 6.0 | 10.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/25 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/26 | 11.0 | 9.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/27 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/29 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/30 | 11.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/01 | 13.0 | 8.0 | +5.0 |
| 05/02 | 13.0 | 8.0 | +5.0 |
| 05/03 | 11.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/04 | 9.0 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/05 | 7.0 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/21 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 04/22 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/23 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/24 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/25 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/26 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/27 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/29 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/30 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/01 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/03 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/04 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.96
Daily:
0.34 (0.35%)
Weekly:
0.16 (0.17%)
US_10Y
4.42
Daily:
0.06 (1.47%)
Weekly:
0.1 (2.2%)
SP500
7135.95
Daily:
-2.85 (-0.04%)
Weekly:
27.55 (0.39%)
VIX
18.81
Daily:
0.98 (5.5%)
Weekly:
-0.5 (-2.59%)
GOLD
4571.3
Daily:
-20.2 (-0.44%)
Weekly:
-133.8 (-2.84%)
COPPER
5.96
Daily:
0.05 (0.79%)
Weekly:
-0.11 (-1.88%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-21
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,576,663
Change: -8,577
Managed Money
-100,574
Change: +13,521
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-23,743
Change: -13,201
-1.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
174,059
Change: -7,395
11.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-67,741
Change: +5,052
-4.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-21
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,984,747
Change: -109,745
Managed Money
99,887
Change: +1,519
5.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
314,305
Change: +20,309
15.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-541,016
Change: -85
-27.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices decreased to 15.360 EUR/MWh (-0.041). JKM prices decreased to 16.480 USD/MMBtu (-0.075). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.120 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.360
-0.041Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-29
JKM Prices
16.480
-0.075Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-04-29
JKM-TTF Spread
1.120
7.29%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-29
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
17.0
15.7
14.5
13.2
12.0
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 15.360 |
| JUN 26 | 14.990 |
| JUL 26 | 15.006 |
| AUG 26 | 15.015 |
| SEP 26 | 15.056 |
| OCT 26 | 15.027 |
| NOV 26 | 14.963 |
| DEC 26 | 14.989 |
| JAN 27 | 14.958 |
| FEB 27 | 14.864 |
| MAR 27 | 14.374 |
| APR 27 | 12.641 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.480 |
| JUL 26 | 16.585 |
| AUG 26 | 16.540 |
| SEP 26 | 16.270 |
| OCT 26 | 15.875 |
| NOV 26 | 15.790 |
| DEC 26 | 15.875 |
| JAN 27 | 15.590 |
| FEB 27 | 15.120 |
| MAR 27 | 13.470 |
| APR 27 | 12.450 |
| MAY 27 | 12.395 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-30 to 2026-04-28
Latest LNG Flow
18.40
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.20
(-1.1%)
30-Day Average
18.82
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.80
BCF/D
Data Points
16
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 19.30 | N/A |
| 2026-04-06 | 19.40 | +0.10 |
| 2026-04-07 | 17.80 | -1.60 |
| 2026-04-23 | 18.80 | +1.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | 18.80 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | 18.70 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-25 | 18.60 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-26 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | 18.40 | -0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.375
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
103
Last Updated:
2026-04-29 23:47:21
Commodity Sentiment
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- TotalEnergies Q1 Profit Climbs, Despite Stable Production dpa-AFX
- Oil Production Slumps Despite Higher Prices — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- BP Q1 RC Profit Rises On Sales Growth; Warns On FY26 Upstream Production dpa-AFX
- Oil Above $100 Signals Supply Stress — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.64
Closest Support:
$2.48
6.06% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.76
4.55% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
Support
0.236
$2.76
Resistance
0.382
$2.93
0.5
$3.07
0.618
$3.21
0.786
$3.41
1.0
$3.66
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.98
1.618
$4.39
2.0
$4.83
2.618
$5.56
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.65
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-29 23:47:22
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.08%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | $2.64 | $2.5 | $2.79 |
| 2026-05-01 | $2.66 | $2.51 | $2.81 |
| 2026-05-02 | $2.65 | $2.5 | $2.8 |
| 2026-05-03 | $2.65 | $2.5 | $2.8 |
| 2026-05-04 | $2.64 | $2.49 | $2.79 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2026-04-30), reaching $2.64.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-30 and 2026-05-04.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish outlook, with a score of -2/5. Traders should pay close attention to the Fibonacci support level of 2.48 and resistance level of 2.76 for potential price movements. The ML price forecast indicates a slight decline of 0.08% with a trading range of 2.5 to 2.79. This presents short-term opportunities to capitalize on volatility, but caution is advised as the technical interpretation indicates potential downward pressure.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The fundamental balance of 5.97 BCFD shows an increase, suggesting a robust supply scenario. Producers should consider this when planning production levels and hedging strategies. The overall market sentiment is positive, particularly for crude oil, which could support pricing stability despite fluctuations. Notably, the news sentiment surrounding crude oil is strong, with articles indicating production challenges amidst higher prices, which may affect operational strategies moving forward.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
With a moderate heating demand expected and a cooling demand forecasted, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations in energy procurement. The fundamental balance indicates a healthy supply, which may mitigate extreme price spikes. However, the bearish technical indicators could signal future volatility, prompting consumers to consider hedging strategies to manage procurement costs effectively.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current market landscape shows a convergence of technical bearishness and positive sentiment in crude oil, creating a complex scenario. The fundamental balance reflects a strong supply side, while regional weather patterns indicate varying demand. Key driving factors include the overall market sentiment and specific news surrounding crude oil production. Analysts should monitor these dynamics closely for potential shifts in market outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.