Henry Hub opened the week with genuine ambition — a run at $2.715, the level that has rejected every meaningful rally attempt this injection season — and failed again, retreating to $2.60 by Thursday morning. The bears will point to the expected 80 Bcf injection for the week ending April 24, which lands 20 Bcf above the five-year average, and they're not wrong about the number. What they're missing is the trajectory: the forward four-week injection outlook is tightening to only 15 Bcf above average, the daily supply/demand balance is running 7.7 Bcf tight versus the five-year average right now, and LNG feedgas is grinding at 18.2 Bcf/d — 5.2 Bcf/d above the five-year average — because the HH-TTF spread at $9 to $11 per MMBtu after transport costs makes every molecule of domestic gas worth more overseas than it is at home. Powerburn is already running 3.6 Bcf/d above the five-year average in late April, which means the air conditioning season is loading up ahead of schedule and the storage rebuild math gets harder every week that trend holds. The market isn't broken — it's waiting. When that four-week injection pace drops to flat with the five-year average, $2.715 breaks which finally broke on April 30th and we are exiting the week at the key point of 2.765. Until then, $2.525 is the floor that keeps the bull thesis intact, and December 2026 at $3.55 is quietly telling you the forward curve already knows winter is going to be a different conversation entirely.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-04-30 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural Gas is currently navigating a tight market, opening the week at $2.715 but retreating to $2.60. The recent 79 Bcf injection exceeded the five-year average by 20 Bcf, but supply-demand dynamics are shifting, with daily balances running 7.7 Bcf tight. LNG feedgas remains strong at 18.2 Bcf/d, making U.S. gas more appealing internationally. As powerburn rises 3.6 Bcf/d above average, watch for the critical $2.765 level—breaking it could signal a bullish trend, while $2.525 serves as a support floor.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand increased by 7.89 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 1.92 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$2.78
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.64
MA(20): $2.67
Current Price is 2.78, 9 day MA 2.64, 20 day MA 2.67
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0855
Signal: -0.1086
Days since crossover: 9
MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 51.37
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 51.37 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,433
Avg (20d): 105,347
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 99.66
%D: 61.79
Stochastic %K: 99.66, %D: 61.79. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 8.73
+DI: 25.57
-DI: 20.23
ADX: 8.73 (+DI: 25.57, -DI: 20.23). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -0.34
Williams %R: -0.34 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 2.85
Middle: 2.67
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 2.85, Middle: 2.67, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 105.7 | 102.27 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| Total Supply | 111.1 | 111.1 | 110.8 | 107.47 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.5 | 22.73 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.5 | 27.8 | 30.6 | 29.93 |
| Residential & Commercial | 25.5 | 21.0 | 13.1 | 17.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.2 | 18.8 | 16.4 | 13.97 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 6.27 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 113.02 | 105.13 | 96.0 | 98.1 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -1.92 | 5.97 | 14.8 | 9.37 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
60.0 HDD
-8.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
68.0 HDD
+14.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
12.0 CDD
-1.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
10.0 CDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/22 | 9.0 | 11.0 | -2.0 |
| 04/23 | 5.0 | 10.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/24 | 6.0 | 10.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/25 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/26 | 11.0 | 9.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/27 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/28 | 10.0 | 9.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/30 | 11.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/01 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/02 | 13.0 | 8.0 | +5.0 |
| 05/03 | 11.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/04 | 8.0 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/05 | 7.0 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/06 | 6.0 | 7.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/22 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/23 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/24 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/25 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/26 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/27 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/28 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/30 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/01 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/03 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/04 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/06 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.12
Daily:
-0.8 (-0.81%)
Weekly:
-0.39 (-0.4%)
US_10Y
4.39
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.63%)
Weekly:
0.08 (1.86%)
SP500
7209.01
Daily:
73.06 (1.02%)
Weekly:
43.93 (0.61%)
VIX
16.89
Daily:
-1.92 (-10.21%)
Weekly:
-1.82 (-9.73%)
GOLD
4643.0
Daily:
97.8 (2.15%)
Weekly:
-79.3 (-1.68%)
COPPER
6.02
Daily:
0.14 (2.42%)
Weekly:
-0.0 (-0.05%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-21
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,576,663
Change: -8,577
Managed Money
-100,574
Change: +13,521
-6.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-23,743
Change: -13,201
-1.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
174,059
Change: -7,395
11.0% of OI
Other Reportables
-67,741
Change: +5,052
-4.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-21
Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,984,747
Change: -109,745
Managed Money
99,887
Change: +1,519
5.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
314,305
Change: +20,309
15.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-541,016
Change: -85
-27.3% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish and strengthening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 15.415 EUR/MWh (+0.055). JKM prices increased to 16.965 USD/MMBtu (+0.485). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.550 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.415
+0.055Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-04-30
JKM Prices
16.965
+0.485Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-04-30
JKM-TTF Spread
1.550
10.06%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-04-30
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
18.3
16.8
15.3
13.9
12.4
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 15.415 |
| JUN 26 | 16.073 |
| JUL 26 | 16.099 |
| AUG 26 | 16.114 |
| SEP 26 | 16.147 |
| OCT 26 | 16.090 |
| NOV 26 | 16.015 |
| DEC 26 | 16.016 |
| JAN 27 | 15.977 |
| FEB 27 | 15.871 |
| MAR 27 | 15.315 |
| APR 27 | 13.298 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.965 |
| JUL 26 | 17.770 |
| AUG 26 | 17.685 |
| SEP 26 | 17.425 |
| OCT 26 | 17.000 |
| NOV 26 | 16.920 |
| DEC 26 | 16.960 |
| JAN 27 | 16.685 |
| FEB 27 | 16.200 |
| MAR 27 | 14.270 |
| APR 27 | 13.025 |
| MAY 27 | 12.905 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-03-31 to 2026-04-29
Latest LNG Flow
18.20
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.20
(-1.1%)
30-Day Average
18.74
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.80
BCF/D
Data Points
16
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | 19.40 | N/A |
| 2026-04-07 | 17.80 | -1.60 |
| 2026-04-23 | 18.80 | +1.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | 18.80 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | 18.70 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-25 | 18.60 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-26 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | 18.40 | -0.20 |
| 2026-04-29 | 18.20 | -0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.675
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
134
Last Updated:
2026-04-30 23:47:46
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
NATURAL_GAS
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (6 articles)
- Oil Gains Further as Prolonged U.S.-Iran Impasse Deepens Supply Shock — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- TotalEnergies Q1 Profit Climbs, Despite Stable Production dpa-AFX
- Oil Production Slumps Despite Higher Prices — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- BP Q1 RC Profit Rises On Sales Growth; Warns On FY26 Upstream Production dpa-AFX
- Oil Above $100 Signals Supply Stress — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US natural gas futures rise 3% as output drops, LNG exports surge Reuters
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Weather (3 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.78
Closest Support:
$2.76
0.72% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.93
5.4% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.76
Support
0.382
$2.93
Resistance
0.5
$3.07
0.618
$3.21
0.786
$3.41
1.0
$3.66
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.98
1.618
$4.39
2.0
$4.83
2.618
$5.56
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.77
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-30 23:47:47
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.2%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | $2.77 | $2.62 | $2.93 |
| 2026-05-02 | $2.78 | $2.62 | $2.93 |
| 2026-05-03 | $2.77 | $2.61 | $2.92 |
| 2026-05-04 | $2.76 | $2.6 | $2.92 |
| 2026-05-05 | $2.75 | $2.6 | $2.91 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.20% for the next trading day (2026-05-01), reaching $2.77.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-01 and 2026-05-05.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market presents a neutral technical outlook with a score of -1/5. Traders should note the Fibonacci support at 2.76 and resistance at 2.93. The ML price forecast indicates a slight upward movement of 0.20%, suggesting potential short-term opportunities within the range of 2.62 to 2.93. However, the overall market sentiment remains bullish with a sentiment score of +0.675, which could lead to increased volatility. Traders should watch for any shifts in demand, especially in heating regions, as this could impact price movements significantly.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers are facing a fundamental balance of -1.92 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply situation with a change of -7.89. This could influence production planning, as maintaining output levels may be crucial amidst a bullish market sentiment of +0.600 for natural gas. The news sentiment around supply issues, particularly related to crude oil, suggests potential disruptions due to geopolitical factors. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations and supply shocks, particularly given the current heating demand forecast across key regions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains bullish. The moderate heating demand indicated by the weather outlook could lead to increased prices, especially if production does not keep pace with demand. The fundamental balance shows a negative trend, suggesting supply reliability risks. It may be prudent for consumers to consider procurement strategies or hedging options to mitigate against rising costs, especially given the forecast for 2.62 to 2.93 in natural gas prices.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market is characterized by a bullish sentiment overall, with a sentiment score of +0.675, indicating positive market expectations. The fundamental balance reflects a tightening supply situation, which could shift market dynamics. The technical indicators are currently neutral, suggesting that while there may be upward price pressures, volatility could remain high. Analysts should focus on the implications of the weather outlook and geopolitical developments on supply and demand, as these factors are likely to drive significant shifts in market conditions.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.