Henry Hub opened the week with genuine ambition — a run at $2.715, the level that has rejected every meaningful rally attempt this injection season — and failed again, retreating to $2.60 by Thursday morning. The bears will point to the expected 80 Bcf injection for the week ending April 24, which lands 20 Bcf above the five-year average, and they're not wrong about the number. What they're missing is the trajectory: the forward four-week injection outlook is tightening to only 15 Bcf above average, the daily supply/demand balance is running 7.7 Bcf tight versus the five-year average right now, and LNG feedgas is grinding at 18.2 Bcf/d — 5.2 Bcf/d above the five-year average — because the HH-TTF spread at $9 to $11 per MMBtu after transport costs makes every molecule of domestic gas worth more overseas than it is at home. Powerburn is already running 3.6 Bcf/d above the five-year average in late April, which means the air conditioning season is loading up ahead of schedule and the storage rebuild math gets harder every week that trend holds. The market isn't broken — it's waiting. When that four-week injection pace drops to flat with the five-year average, $2.715 breaks which finally broke on April 30th and we are exiting the week at the key point of 2.765. Until then, $2.525 is the floor that keeps the bull thesis intact, and December 2026 at $3.55 is quietly telling you the forward curve already knows winter is going to be a different conversation entirely.
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-01 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices are feeling the heat as they aim for the elusive $2.715 mark, but recent setbacks have them retreating to $2.60. With an expected 80 Bcf injection—20 Bcf above the five-year average—bears are having a field day. However, watch the tightening trajectory ahead: the daily supply-demand balance is currently 7.7 Bcf tight. A surge in LNG exports and increased powerburn are bullish indicators. Keep your eyes peeled for temperature shifts, as warmer weather could spark a breakout above resistance!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand increased by 7.89 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 1.92 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.79
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.65
MA(20): $2.67
Current Price is 2.79, 9 day MA 2.65, 20 day MA 2.67
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0694
Signal: -0.1009
Days since crossover: 10
MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.15
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.15 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 107,096
Avg (20d): 119,218
Ratio: 0.9
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 90.53
%D: 80.14
Stochastic %K: 90.53, %D: 80.14. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 9.38
+DI: 25.92
-DI: 18.7
ADX: 9.38 (+DI: 25.92, -DI: 18.7). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -9.47
Williams %R: -9.47 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 2.85
Middle: 2.67
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 2.85, Middle: 2.67, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 105.7 | 102.27 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| Total Supply | 111.1 | 111.1 | 110.8 | 107.47 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.5 | 22.73 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.5 | 27.8 | 30.6 | 29.93 |
| Residential & Commercial | 25.5 | 21.0 | 13.1 | 17.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.2 | 18.8 | 16.4 | 13.97 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 6.27 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 113.02 | 105.13 | 96.0 | 98.1 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -1.92 | 5.97 | 14.8 | 9.37 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
61.0 HDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
62.0 HDD
+10.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
13.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
11.0 CDD
-5.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/23 | 5.0 | 10.0 | -5.0 |
| 04/24 | 6.0 | 10.0 | -4.0 |
| 04/25 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/26 | 11.0 | 9.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/27 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/28 | 10.0 | 9.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/29 | 10.0 | 9.0 | +1.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/02 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/03 | 11.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/04 | 7.0 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 6.0 | 7.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/06 | 7.0 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/07 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/23 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 04/24 | 2.0 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/25 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/26 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/27 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/28 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/29 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/03 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/04 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/06 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/07 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.21
Daily:
0.13 (0.13%)
Weekly:
-0.27 (-0.27%)
US_10Y
4.38
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.27%)
Weekly:
0.04 (0.97%)
SP500
7230.12
Daily:
21.11 (0.29%)
Weekly:
56.21 (0.78%)
VIX
16.99
Daily:
0.1 (0.59%)
Weekly:
-1.03 (-5.72%)
GOLD
4625.6
Daily:
10.9 (0.24%)
Weekly:
-49.8 (-1.07%)
COPPER
5.96
Daily:
0.04 (0.65%)
Weekly:
-0.05 (-0.89%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-28
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,578,600
Change: +1,937
Managed Money
-97,245
Change: +3,329
-6.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-26,578
Change: -2,835
-1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
177,613
Change: +3,554
11.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-69,028
Change: -1,287
-4.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-28
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,017,038
Change: +32,291
Managed Money
80,331
Change: -19,556
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
320,120
Change: +5,815
15.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-539,774
Change: +1,242
-26.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 15.415 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 16.905 USD/MMBtu (-0.060). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.490 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.415
+0.000Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-05-01
JKM Prices
16.905
-0.060Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-01
JKM-TTF Spread
1.490
9.67%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-01
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
17.9
16.5
15.0
13.6
12.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 15.415 |
| JUN 26 | 15.826 |
| JUL 26 | 15.858 |
| AUG 26 | 15.874 |
| SEP 26 | 15.910 |
| OCT 26 | 15.849 |
| NOV 26 | 15.761 |
| DEC 26 | 15.762 |
| JAN 27 | 15.713 |
| FEB 27 | 15.593 |
| MAR 27 | 15.038 |
| APR 27 | 13.035 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.905 |
| JUL 26 | 17.465 |
| AUG 26 | 17.425 |
| SEP 26 | 17.165 |
| OCT 26 | 16.815 |
| NOV 26 | 16.715 |
| DEC 26 | 16.715 |
| JAN 27 | 16.425 |
| FEB 27 | 15.925 |
| MAR 27 | 13.980 |
| APR 27 | 12.745 |
| MAY 27 | 12.625 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-01 to 2026-04-30
Latest LNG Flow
17.60
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.60
(-3.3%)
30-Day Average
18.66
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.60
BCF/D
Data Points
16
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | 17.80 | N/A |
| 2026-04-23 | 18.80 | +1.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | 18.80 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | 18.70 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-25 | 18.60 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-26 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | 18.40 | -0.20 |
| 2026-04-29 | 18.20 | -0.20 |
| 2026-04-30 | 17.60 | -0.60 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.25
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
132
Last Updated:
2026-05-01 23:47:41
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (6 articles)
- US natgas futures steady as lower output offsets rising LNG exports Reuters
- ConocoPhillips Q1 Profit Declines; Updates Production And Capital Guidance dpa-AFX
- Oil Gains Further as Prolonged U.S.-Iran Impasse Deepens Supply Shock — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- TotalEnergies Q1 Profit Climbs, Despite Stable Production dpa-AFX
- Oil Production Slumps Despite Higher Prices — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- BP Q1 RC Profit Rises On Sales Growth; Warns On FY26 Upstream Production dpa-AFX
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Weather (2 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.79
Closest Support:
$2.76
1.08% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.93
5.02% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.76
Support
0.382
$2.93
Resistance
0.5
$3.07
0.618
$3.21
0.786
$3.41
1.0
$3.66
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.98
1.618
$4.39
2.0
$4.83
2.618
$5.56
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.77
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-01 23:47:42
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.2%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | $2.77 | $2.62 | $2.93 |
| 2026-05-02 | $2.78 | $2.62 | $2.93 |
| 2026-05-03 | $2.77 | $2.61 | $2.92 |
| 2026-05-04 | $2.76 | $2.6 | $2.92 |
| 2026-05-05 | $2.75 | $2.6 | $2.91 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.20% for the next trading day (2026-05-01), reaching $2.77.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-01 and 2026-05-05.
- The average confidence interval width is ~11.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a moderately bearish outlook with a technical score of -2/5. Key Fibonacci support is at 2.76 and resistance at 2.93. This indicates potential price movements within this range, with the ML price forecast predicting a slight uptick of 0.20% in the near term.
Traders should remain vigilant for volatility, particularly given the fundamental balance of -1.92 BCFD and the overall market sentiment score of +0.233. Short-term opportunities may arise from fluctuations around the support and resistance levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance indicates a negative change of -7.89, which may impact production strategies. Producers should consider adjusting production levels in response to the moderate heating demand forecast in the Northeast and Midwest regions, where HDD values are significantly higher.
With the market sentiment leaning positively, particularly for crude oil, as indicated by the +0.700 sentiment score, producers might explore hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating demand and prices.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should be aware of the current supply reliability risks indicated by the negative fundamental balance of -1.92 BCFD. The forecast of moderate heating demand suggests potential cost fluctuations, especially in regions with higher HDD values.
Additionally, the overall market sentiment and slight upward price forecast may prompt consumers to consider procurement strategies to secure favorable pricing before potential increases.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The energy market is currently characterized by a moderately bearish technical outlook, with a fundamental balance reflecting a decrease in demand. The heating demand forecast indicates a potential shift in consumption patterns, particularly in colder regions.
Despite the bearish technical indicators, the overall market sentiment remains positive, particularly for crude oil, driven by geopolitical factors. Analysts should monitor these dynamics closely, as they may signal shifts in market trends and price movements.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any decisions.