Henry Hub opened Sunday night at $2.83, up from $2.78, and the bears are already writing the eulogy for that move — because storage is 7.7% above the five-year average at 2,142 Bcf and the last two weekly injections were 103 Bcf and 79 Bcf, which by any traditional read is a bearish dataset. Here's the problem with that read: it is the weakest demand window of the calendar year, by design. Heating load has evaporated. Cooling demand hasn't started. We are comparing the most structurally oversupplied two weeks of the injection season against a five-year average that did not include 18.9 Bcfd of LNG baseload demand pulling molecules out the back door at record pace. Production has fallen 4.1 Bcfd in 18 days to 107.6 Bcfd — a 12-week low — because EQT and friends are doing what rational producers do when prices fall below $3: they shut in. That curtailment is the self-correcting mechanism the storage-obsessed bears are ignoring entirely. The week's verdict arrives Thursday with the EIA storage number — consensus near 75 Bcf, and anything below 65 is a clean bullish catalyst — and then Monday May 12 with the STEO, which is the only data print that actually matters for the medium-term narrative. If the EIA revises its end-October storage estimate down from the current 4,015 Bcf base case, this market is done going sideways. December 2026 at $4.70 and January 2027 at $5.10 are already telling you what the forward balance looks like. June contract is over the critical support at 2.762 and on it’s way to $3
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-04 23:48
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas prices opened at $2.83, buoyed by a recent uptick despite a bearish storage report showing levels 7.7% above the five-year average. Current demand is weak, typical for this time of year, but significant curtailments (4.1 Bcfd drop in production) signal a self-correcting mechanism. The upcoming EIA storage report will be crucial; anything below 65 Bcf could ignite bullish sentiment. With futures hitting a three-week high, keep an eye on demand trends and geopolitical influences for potential volatility.
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand increased by 7.89 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 1.92 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.84
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $2.67
MA(20): $2.67
Current Price is 2.84, 9 day MA 2.67, 20 day MA 2.67
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0518
Signal: -0.0912
Days since crossover: 11
MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 55.18
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 55.18 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,631
Avg (20d): 114,567
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 96.77
%D: 91.98
Stochastic %K: 96.77, %D: 91.98. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 10.11
+DI: 26.68
-DI: 17.93
ADX: 10.11 (+DI: 26.68, -DI: 17.93). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -3.23
Williams %R: -3.23 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 2.85
Middle: 2.67
Lower: 2.49
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 2.85, Middle: 2.67, Lower: 2.49
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 105.7 | 102.27 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| Total Supply | 111.1 | 111.1 | 110.8 | 107.47 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.5 | 22.73 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.5 | 27.8 | 30.6 | 29.93 |
| Residential & Commercial | 25.5 | 21.0 | 13.1 | 17.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.2 | 18.8 | 16.4 | 13.97 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 6.27 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 113.02 | 105.13 | 96.0 | 98.1 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -1.92 | 5.97 | 14.8 | 9.37 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
76.0 HDD
+16.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
53.0 HDD
+7.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
11.0 CDD
-3.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
16.0 CDD
-3.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/26 | 11.0 | 9.0 | +2.0 |
| 04/27 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/28 | 10.0 | 9.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/29 | 10.0 | 9.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/30 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/01 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/02 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04 | 6.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 05/05 | 7.0 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/06 | 9.0 | 7.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/07 | 10.0 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/08 | 9.0 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 05/09 | 7.0 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/10 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/26 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/27 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/28 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/29 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/30 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/01 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/05 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/06 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/07 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/08 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/09 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/10 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.51
Daily:
0.3 (0.31%)
Weekly:
-0.11 (-0.11%)
US_10Y
4.45
Daily:
0.07 (1.55%)
Weekly:
0.09 (2.11%)
SP500
7200.75
Daily:
-29.37 (-0.41%)
Weekly:
61.95 (0.87%)
VIX
18.29
Daily:
1.3 (7.65%)
Weekly:
0.46 (2.58%)
GOLD
4547.7
Daily:
-82.2 (-1.78%)
Weekly:
-43.8 (-0.95%)
COPPER
5.89
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.72%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.43%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-28
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,578,600
Change: +1,937
Managed Money
-97,245
Change: +3,329
-6.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-26,578
Change: -2,835
-1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
177,613
Change: +3,554
11.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-69,028
Change: -1,287
-4.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-28
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,017,038
Change: +32,291
Managed Money
80,331
Change: -19,556
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
320,120
Change: +5,815
15.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-539,774
Change: +1,242
-26.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices remained stable to 15.415 EUR/MWh (+0.000). JKM prices decreased to 16.865 USD/MMBtu (-0.040). JKM is trading at a premium of 1.450 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
15.415
+0.000Front month: MAY 26
As of 2026-05-04
JKM Prices
16.865
-0.040Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-04
JKM-TTF Spread
1.450
9.41%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-04
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
17.8
16.3
14.9
13.5
12.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| MAY 26 | 15.415 |
| JUN 26 | 15.798 |
| JUL 26 | 15.849 |
| AUG 26 | 15.874 |
| SEP 26 | 15.909 |
| OCT 26 | 15.853 |
| NOV 26 | 15.765 |
| DEC 26 | 15.776 |
| JAN 27 | 15.734 |
| FEB 27 | 15.624 |
| MAR 27 | 15.080 |
| APR 27 | 13.022 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.865 |
| JUL 26 | 17.195 |
| AUG 26 | 17.285 |
| SEP 26 | 17.055 |
| OCT 26 | 16.735 |
| NOV 26 | 16.640 |
| DEC 26 | 16.640 |
| JAN 27 | 16.360 |
| FEB 27 | 15.875 |
| MAR 27 | 14.265 |
| APR 27 | 12.685 |
| MAY 27 | 12.585 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-04 to 2026-05-03
Latest LNG Flow
17.30
BCF/D
Daily Change
-0.20
(-1.1%)
30-Day Average
18.43
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.30
BCF/D
Data Points
16
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 18.70 | N/A |
| 2026-04-25 | 18.60 | -0.10 |
| 2026-04-26 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | 18.40 | -0.20 |
| 2026-04-29 | 18.20 | -0.20 |
| 2026-04-30 | 17.60 | -0.60 |
| 2026-05-01 | 18.20 | +0.60 |
| 2026-05-02 | 17.50 | -0.70 |
| 2026-05-03 | 17.30 | -0.20 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
-0.133
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
72
Last Updated:
2026-05-04 23:47:56
Commodity Sentiment
HEATING_OIL
0.0
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- OPEC+ Potential Output Hike Would Be Largely Symbolic — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- BOE Rate Rise Prospect Could Fall if Energy-Supply Shock Ends — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.84
Closest Support:
$2.76
2.82% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.93
3.17% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.76
Support
0.382
$2.93
Resistance
0.5
$3.07
0.618
$3.21
0.786
$3.41
1.0
$3.66
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.98
1.618
$4.39
2.0
$4.83
2.618
$5.56
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.87
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-04 23:47:56
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.69%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | $2.85 | $2.71 | $2.99 |
| 2026-05-06 | $2.85 | $2.71 | $2.99 |
| 2026-05-07 | $2.84 | $2.7 | $2.98 |
| 2026-05-08 | $2.84 | $2.7 | $2.98 |
| 2026-05-09 | $2.83 | $2.69 | $2.97 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.69% for the next trading day (2026-05-05), reaching $2.85.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-05 and 2026-05-09.
- The average confidence interval width is ~9.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market analysis indicates a moderately bearish sentiment with a technical score of -2/5. Key Fibonacci levels are established at support 2.76 and resistance 2.93. The ML price forecast suggests a potential decline of 0.69%, with a trading range of 2.71 to 2.99.
Traders should be mindful of potential volatility as the market reacts to weather forecasts indicating moderate heating demand and moderate cooling demand. This could create short-term opportunities, especially in regions with significant heating degree days.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current fundamental balance is reported at -1.92 BCFD, indicating a tightening supply-demand scenario. Producers should consider this when planning production levels, as the neutral market sentiment does not suggest significant upward pressure on prices.
Given the moderately bearish technical outlook, it may be prudent to implement hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines, while also monitoring geopolitical developments that could impact crude oil prices.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
As heating demand is expected to dominate in the Northeast and Midwest, consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations associated with moderate heating demand. The current market sentiment is neutral, indicating that while there are no immediate supply reliability risks, vigilance is necessary as weather patterns evolve.
Procurement strategies should consider the potential for price movements within the established range of 2.71 to 2.99, especially in light of the downward ML forecast.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The market landscape reflects a moderately bearish sentiment, driven by a tightening fundamental balance and neutral news sentiment. The implications of weather forecasts suggest a mixed demand outlook with regions experiencing varying heating and cooling needs.
Analysts should focus on the strongest driving factors: the bearish technical indicators, coupled with the potential for geopolitical risks impacting crude oil prices. Monitoring these elements will be crucial for anticipating shifts in market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.