Henry Hub opened Sunday night at $2.83, up from $2.78, and the bears are already writing the eulogy for that move — because storage is 7.7% above the five-year average at 2,142 Bcf and the last two weekly injections were 103 Bcf and 79 Bcf, which by any traditional read is a bearish dataset. Here's the problem with that read: it is the weakest demand window of the calendar year, by design. Heating load has evaporated. Cooling demand hasn't started. We are comparing the most structurally oversupplied two weeks of the injection season against a five-year average that did not include 18.9 Bcfd of LNG baseload demand pulling molecules out the back door at record pace. Production has fallen 4.1 Bcfd in 18 days to 107.6 Bcfd — a 12-week low — because EQT and friends are doing what rational producers do when prices fall below $3: they shut in. That curtailment is the self-correcting mechanism the storage-obsessed bears are ignoring entirely. The week's verdict arrives Thursday with the EIA storage number — consensus near 75 Bcf, and anything below 65 is a clean bullish catalyst — and then Monday May 12 with the STEO, which is the only data print that actually matters for the medium-term narrative. If the EIA revises its end-October storage estimate down from the current 4,015 Bcf base case, this market is done going sideways. December 2026 at $4.70 and January 2027 at $5.10 are already telling you what the forward balance looks like. June contract is over the critical support at 2.762 and on it’s way to $3
ER
Natural Gas Radar
2026-05-05 23:47
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Natural gas is in a tight spot, opening at $2.83, slightly up from last week but facing bearish pressure due to storage levels 7.7% above the five-year average at 2,142 Bcf. This is compounded by weak demand and recent injections of 103 Bcf and 79 Bcf. However, a production drop of 4.1 Bcfd signals producers are adjusting to lower prices. The upcoming EIA report could shift sentiment—anything below 65 Bcf could spark bullish momentum. Keep an eye on LNG demand as a game changer!
Executive Summary
Total supply decreased by 0.0 BCFD | Total demand increased by 7.89 BCFD | Market is undersupplied by 1.92 BCFD
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$2.77
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $2.68
MA(20): $2.67
Current Price is 2.77, 9 day MA 2.68, 20 day MA 2.67
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.0408
Signal: -0.0808
Days since crossover: 12
MACD crossed the line 12 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 50.59
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 50.59 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 2,198
Avg (20d): 114,037
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 72.5
%D: 85.46
Stochastic %K: 72.5, %D: 85.46. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.17
+DI: 25.87
-DI: 16.4
ADX: 11.17 (+DI: 25.87, -DI: 16.4). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -27.5
Williams %R: -27.5 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 2.84
Middle: 2.67
Lower: 2.5
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 2.84, Middle: 2.67, Lower: 2.5
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current (BCFD) | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry Production | 106.7 | 106.9 | 105.7 | 102.27 |
| LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.07 |
| Canadian Imports | 4.4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| Total Supply | 111.1 | 111.1 | 110.8 | 107.47 |
| Industrial Demand | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.5 | 22.73 |
| Electric Power Demand | 31.5 | 27.8 | 30.6 | 29.93 |
| Residential & Commercial | 25.5 | 21.0 | 13.1 | 17.97 |
| LNG Exports | 18.2 | 18.8 | 16.4 | 13.97 |
| Mexico Exports | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 6.27 |
| Pipeline Fuel | 8.83 | 8.83 | 6.6 | 7.3 |
| Total Demand | 113.02 | 105.13 | 96.0 | 98.1 |
| Supply/Demand Balance | -1.92 | 5.97 | 14.8 | 9.37 |
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
MODERATE heating demand - typical winter conditions
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
76.0 HDD
+17.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
50.0 HDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
10.0 CDD
-4.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
21.0 CDD
+1.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/27 | 9.0 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/28 | 10.0 | 9.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/29 | 10.0 | 9.0 | +1.0 |
| 04/30 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/01 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/02 | 12.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/03 | 11.0 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05 | 7.0 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/06 | 9.0 | 7.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/07 | 10.0 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
| 05/08 | 8.0 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
| 05/09 | 6.0 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/10 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/11 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/27 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/28 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/29 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| 04/30 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/01 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/02 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/03 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/06 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/07 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/08 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 05/09 | 3.0 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 05/10 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 05/11 | 4.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.29
Daily:
-0.18 (-0.18%)
Weekly:
-0.63 (-0.64%)
US_10Y
4.42
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.67%)
Weekly:
-0.0 (-0.05%)
SP500
7259.22
Daily:
58.47 (0.81%)
Weekly:
123.27 (1.73%)
VIX
17.38
Daily:
-0.91 (-4.98%)
Weekly:
-1.43 (-7.6%)
GOLD
4653.8
Daily:
134.3 (2.97%)
Weekly:
108.6 (2.39%)
COPPER
6.08
Daily:
0.29 (4.98%)
Weekly:
0.2 (3.49%)
CFTC Commitment of Traders Analysis
Natural Gas Positioning (NAT GAS NYME - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-28
Sentiment: Bearish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
1,578,600
Change: +1,937
Managed Money
-97,245
Change: +3,329
-6.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
-26,578
Change: -2,835
-1.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
177,613
Change: +3,554
11.3% of OI
Other Reportables
-69,028
Change: -1,287
-4.4% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bearish but weakening
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE)
Report Date: 2026-04-28
Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Open Interest
2,017,038
Change: +32,291
Managed Money
80,331
Change: -19,556
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
320,120
Change: +5,815
15.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-539,774
Change: +1,242
-26.8% of OI
Analysis Rationale (Managed Money):
- Managed Money sentiment: bullish but weakening
LNG Market Analysis
LNG Market Summary
TTF prices increased to 16.467 EUR/MWh (+0.669). JKM prices remained stable to 16.865 USD/MMBtu (+0.000). JKM is trading at a premium of 0.398 to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
TTF Prices
16.467
+0.669Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-05
JKM Prices
16.865
+0.000Front month: JUN 26
As of 2026-05-05
JKM-TTF Spread
0.398
2.42%JKM is trading at a premium to TTF, indicating strong Asian demand.
As of 2026-05-05
Forward Curves Visualization
TTF (EUR/MWh)
JKM (USD/MMBtu)
17.8
16.3
14.9
13.5
12.1
TTF Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (EUR/MWh) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.467 |
| JUL 26 | 16.558 |
| AUG 26 | 16.561 |
| SEP 26 | 16.594 |
| OCT 26 | 16.541 |
| NOV 26 | 16.458 |
| DEC 26 | 16.463 |
| JAN 27 | 16.423 |
| FEB 27 | 16.307 |
| MAR 27 | 15.734 |
| APR 27 | 13.416 |
| MAY 27 | 12.560 |
JKM Forward Curve (Next 12 Months)
| Month | Price (USD/MMBtu) |
|---|---|
| JUN 26 | 16.865 |
| JUL 26 | 17.195 |
| AUG 26 | 17.285 |
| SEP 26 | 17.055 |
| OCT 26 | 16.735 |
| NOV 26 | 16.640 |
| DEC 26 | 16.640 |
| JAN 27 | 16.360 |
| FEB 27 | 15.875 |
| MAR 27 | 14.265 |
| APR 27 | 12.685 |
| MAY 27 | 12.585 |
LNG Flows Analysis
LNG Flows Summary
2026-04-05 to 2026-05-04
Latest LNG Flow
17.30
BCF/D
Daily Change
+0.00
(+0.0%)
30-Day Average
18.32
BCF/D
30-Day High
19.40
BCF/D
30-Day Low
17.30
BCF/D
Data Points
16
Days
LNG Flows Trend (Click to zoom)
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
LNG Flows Analysis
Recent LNG Flows Data
| Date | LNG Flow (BCF/D) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 18.60 | N/A |
| 2026-04-26 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | 18.60 | +0.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | 18.40 | -0.20 |
| 2026-04-29 | 18.20 | -0.20 |
| 2026-04-30 | 17.60 | -0.60 |
| 2026-05-01 | 18.20 | +0.60 |
| 2026-05-02 | 17.50 | -0.70 |
| 2026-05-03 | 17.30 | -0.20 |
| 2026-05-04 | 17.30 | +0.00 |
News & Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.3
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
86
Last Updated:
2026-05-05 23:47:20
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
NATURAL_GAS
0.0
Top News Topics
Demand (1 articles)
- Markets Priced for Inflation, Not for Demand Destruction — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Fibonacci Levels Analysis
Current Price:
$2.77
Closest Support:
$2.72
1.81% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$2.87
3.61% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$2.48
0.236
$2.72
Support
0.382
$2.87
Resistance
0.5
$2.99
0.618
$3.11
0.786
$3.28
1.0
$3.49
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$3.77
1.618
$4.12
2.0
$4.5
2.618
$5.13
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$2.79
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-05 23:47:21
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.41%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | $2.8 | $2.66 | $2.94 |
| 2026-05-07 | $2.77 | $2.63 | $2.91 |
| 2026-05-08 | $2.78 | $2.64 | $2.92 |
| 2026-05-09 | $2.77 | $2.63 | $2.92 |
| 2026-05-10 | $2.78 | $2.64 | $2.92 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.41% for the next trading day (2026-05-06), reaching $2.80.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-06 and 2026-05-10.
- The average confidence interval width is ~10.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions suggest a moderately bearish outlook with a Fibonacci support at 2.72 and resistance at 2.87. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility as prices are forecasted to move up by 0.41%, with a predicted range of 2.66 to 2.94. The convergence of bearish technical indicators and overall market sentiment creates short-term opportunities, but traders should remain vigilant regarding the fundamental balance of -1.92 BCFD which indicates a tightening supply-demand scenario.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the fundamental balance of -1.92 BCFD, signaling a potential tightening market that may affect production planning. The low heating and cooling demand expected in residential and commercial sectors suggests a cautious approach to production levels. Additionally, the overall market sentiment remains positive, which could support pricing strategies. Producers may want to evaluate their hedging strategies in light of the current volatility and potential shifts in demand.
For Consumers (Industrial/Utilities):
Consumers should prepare for potential cost fluctuations as the market shows a mixed outlook with moderate bearish technical indicators but a bullish overall market sentiment. The low heating demand in the Northeast and Midwest may reduce immediate pressures on supply, but the fundamental balance indicates a tighter market overall. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that hedge against price volatility, especially with the potential for unexpected demand shifts.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current energy market presents a complex picture with moderately bearish technical indicators juxtaposed against a bullish overall sentiment. The fundamental balance reflects a tightening supply-demand dynamic, while the weather outlook indicates low demand for heating and cooling in key regions. Analysts should closely monitor the evolving sentiment around geopolitical factors and their potential impacts on crude oil prices, as well as any shifts in consumer demand that could alter the current landscape.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.